TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[BlackDragonSlayer]

If Oricorio was not the Strange Man, I would strongly encourage the real Strange Man to claim. As I said before, that would mean we've already gotten a wolf and have the option of getting a second (and possible even a third!) at our disposal. Not to mention, the wolves would already have a decent enough idea who might be the Strange Man already.

[XiaoMigros]

Why would the wolves know more than we do? Besides, it's unfortunately still not in their best interest to claim, until they become a potential lynch candidate

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Why would the wolves know more than we do? Besides, it's unfortunately still not in their best interest to claim, until they become a potential lynch candidate

Because the wolves know who they are + who the N1 lantern holders are (and, potentially, the N2 lantern holders!!!). We only know who the N1 lantern holders were. This is all still assuming a situation where Oricorio wasn't the strange man.

Re: not in their best interest to claim
At this point, I think the Strange Man would be off the table for a lynch; plus, if they do claim and provide info that indicates Oricorio wasn't the real Strange Man, I think it would be pretty rude to lynch them A hypothetical non-Oricorio strange man wouldn't have any reason not to claim other than worrying that we'd lynch them.

[XiaoMigros]

Because the wolves know who they are + who the N1 lantern holders are (and, potentially, the N2 lantern holders!!!). We only know who the N1 lantern holders were. This is all still assuming a situation where Oricorio wasn't the strange man.

Checks out, thanks

[XiaoMigros]

Re: not in their best interest to claim
At this point, I think the Strange Man would be off the table for a lynch; plus, if they do claim and provide info that indicates Oricorio wasn't the real Strange Man, I think it would be pretty rude to lynch them A hypothetical non-Oricorio strange man wouldn't have any reason not to claim other than worrying that we'd lynch them.

But the strange man is a liability for either team. I don't see why anyone would want to keep them in the game, save town not wanting to waste a lynch

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Hi, sorry I've been so absent. The last few days have been pretty rough for me irl. I should be more active starting now. I apologize if my lack of existence has caused any issues. I will post a full suspicion list after I make this post, but some food for thought while I type that out:

I find BDS saying that the Strange Man should claim to be very suspicious. Not because I think the Strange Man claiming is inherently bad, but because we have no way to know whether the claim is real or if it's a wolf pretending to be the Strange Man now that the real one is dead. Why I find it so suspicious is because BDS keeps talking about it as if another Strange Man claim is automatically the real Strange Man and that it isn't possible for a wolf to fake claim it.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Susposio List:

Wolf Lean:
BDS - For the reasons as stated above. It feels a lot like a wolf trying to pave the way for one of their partners to claim Strange Man.

Slight Wolf Lean:
davy - While it did eventually come to light that the lantern holders claiming their seering during the day phase is a good idea, it bothers me that davy did so without consulting the other lantern holders first. I also haven't been able to tell whether or not he steered the seering towards Robbie or if it had been a joint idea.

Neutral:
themusicalpoet - Very few posts with nothing of much value.
Xiao - I can never read you. You always play the same way no matter what.
Specs - I didn't find any of your posts to be inherently suspicious, but they also haven't been super helpful either. Mostly reiterating things that have already been said.

Town Lean:
math - Rereading all of your posts, they seem to be very much in the interest of town. You have provided good analysis as well as come up with plenty of helpful ideas. If you aren't town, then bravo.
Toby - While the green seering isn't a guarantee for town in this game, I do believe it is in this case. Since Toby subbed in, he has given plenty of good insight and has seemed genuine in his interest in town winning.

Dead Lean:
Oricorio - I keep poking with a stick, but there's no movement.
A# - It's starting to smell...

Me:
ThatHiddenCharacter - Me!

That looks so much smaller than when I was typing it...

[XiaoMigros]

Dead Lean:
Oricorio - I keep poking with a stick, but there's no movement.
A# - It's starting to smell...

I don't agree with these reads at all. Can you elaborate as to how you came to these conclusions?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I don't agree with these reads at all. Can you elaborate as to how you came to these conclusions?

Well, I found a stick. And my first instinct was poke. After that, everything just fell into place.

[XiaoMigros]

that sounds a little too convenient

[Toby]

This is the entire night 1 lantern holder conversation. It did not continue after night 1. It was sent to me from the host so I'm wary about using quotes but I'll just copy and paste and say who said what


Davy:
Hello fellow Lantern Keepers,

We should use this night phase to come to a consensus which of us three we should seer. Do either of you have any suggestions?

Quote from: threalmathguy on October 20, 2023, 19:27:41
Given that this is one of the only ways of obtaining info, I'd imagine the result should go public for the rest of the group. That being said, we shouldn't call out the seer to the wolves, so don't come forward if you are seer.

I am not the seer so I wouldn't have a problem having my role shown

Quote from: davy on October 21, 2023, 07:54:39
Yeah, my previous message was mostly a reaction test. The one role that certainly doesn't want to be seered is the normal wolf (even the seer getting seer'd would be better for that player than if they were a normal wolf). Since you passed my reaction test, I prefer if we seer Robbie or me this night phase.

I was planning on suggesting seering Robbie because having information on inactive players is pretty important, but I learned from some out of forum communication that he isn't being inactive, just having problems navigating the forum. So mathguy, who do you prefer to seer? I'd like to come to a consensus early, so we can all vote before the phase is up and letting RNG decide.

Also, on another subject: I'd prefer if we all pass our lanterns this phase. That way, we can claim the seering result in the topic without giving the Strange Man any information about who has the lanterns next night phase. Agreed?

Quote from: threalmathguy on October 21, 2023, 20:46:22
This sounds good to me. I'll cast my vote to seer Robbie and pass my lantern on at the end of phase.


——-

Because the messages were so short I did consider that math guy and Davy could be a wolf pairing and that's why the conversation was so short. But math guy has called out davy's actions as suspicious which makes me question if they are aligned together.

I do find odd the lack of conversation especially lack of any discussion on Robbie (me)s green seering.

I do need to apologise because Davy actually does say  he planned to reveal the green seering during the night 1 discussions. He just didn't speak of doing so after the result was already revealed. As math guy later told me him and Davy had no further discussions after

[davy]

I was considering leaning into davy as I do feel him orchestrating the Robbie seering could be a ploy, as he didn't really offer up himself to be seered, and then claiming to the topic without discussing with the other lantern holders was also odd.

I'd like to add some context to what happened here: I asked the other lantern holders who they would like to seer as a reaction test. Obviously, at that point in time I couldn't suggest myself as that would ruin the reaction test. After mathguy passing the test I said (emphasis mine, not in the original):

Yeah, my previous message was mostly a reaction test. The one role that certainly doesn't want to be seered is the normal wolf (even the seer getting seer'd would be better for that player than if they were a normal wolf). Since you passed my reaction test, I prefer if we seer Robbie or me this night phase.

I was planning on suggesting seering Robbie because having information on inactive players is pretty important, but I learned from some out of forum communication that he isn't being inactive, just having problems navigating the forum. So mathguy, who do you prefer to seer? I'd like to come to a consensus early, so we can all vote before the phase is up and letting RNG decide.

Also, on another subject: I'd prefer if we all pass our lanterns this phase. That way, we can claim the seering result in the topic without giving the Strange Man any information about who has the lanterns next night phase. Agreed?

So I left the decision who to seer to mathguy, who responded with:

This sounds good to me. I'll cast my vote to seer Robbie and pass my lantern on at the end of phase.

So it was actually mathguy who decided on the Robbie seering, although his reasoning may have been the one I gave.

Additionally I suggested to claim the seering result in the topic. Admittedly, I could have been clearer that I meant immediately after the phase change. This was a situation where I didn't specify something because I had it in my mind that way and didn't realise it may not come across that way. I was quite surprised when I woke up that mathguy hadn't claimed yet, so I decided that I'd rather claim as soon as possible so the human team could use the info for most of the day phase.

Ninja'd by Toby

[davy]

Because the messages were so short I did consider that math guy and Davy could be a wolf pairing and that's why the conversation was so short. But math guy has called out davy's actions as suspicious which makes me question if they are aligned together.

I do find odd the lack of conversation especially lack of any discussion on Robbie (me)s green seering.

I do need to apologise because Davy actually does say  he planned to reveal the green seering during the night 1 discussions. He just didn't speak of doing so after the result was already revealed. As math guy later told me him and Davy had no further discussions after

To explain the short interaction from my side:

First message was sent when I woke up after the game had started. Kept it short because reaction tests are the best with as few info as possible.

Received a message from mathguy in my evening. Received a message from Robbie outside the forum that he did not know where he could see what his role was. Decided to wait with responding to the next day in hopes of getting a reply from Robbie to the reaction test.

As no reply came, I send my second message when I woke up the next day. Left the decision who to seer to mathguy, since he responded well to my reaction test.

In the evening he suggested seering Robbie, so I did, and was glad I managed to do all that in the 48 hours since I was still quite sick and had very little energy to spend on this game at that point.

[davy]

I'm very convinced as Specs and Davy being wolf partners (possibly with Xiao as a third), especially after getting confirmation of my early suspicions of Oricorio being the Strange Man. Of course, if Oricorio wasn't the Strange Man, it would be great to get confirmation of that from the real Strange Man—it would mean one wolf is dead and we have the chance to kill a second one for the cost of up to three human lives.

Aside from Specs distancing himself from me for voting me, could you summerize your reasons for being very convinced the two of us are partners?

[Toby]

To explain the short interaction from my side:

First message was sent when I woke up after the game had started. Kept it short because reaction tests are the best with as few info as possible.

Received a message from mathguy in my evening. Received a message from Robbie outside the forum that he did not know where he could see what his role was. Decided to wait with responding to the next day in hopes of getting a reply from Robbie to the reaction test.

As no reply came, I send my second message when I woke up the next day. Left the decision who to seer to mathguy, since he responded well to my reaction test.

In the evening he suggested seering Robbie, so I did, and was glad I managed to do all that in the 48 hours since I was still quite sick and had very little energy to spend on this game at that point.

Yeah honestly this all makes sense

In the limited time I had yesterday to catch-up as well as having a busy evening myself  I missed a few parts of the initial conversation between you and math guy