TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Davy/Xiao - Xiao feigned ignorance on Robbie's inactivity and followed Davy post-reveal, and I have already given my take on Davy

I don't have theories on the respective third wolves in those pairings.

Thoughts on Specs as the third partner in that pair?

[Oricorio]

I see merit in arguments for the following wolf partnerships:
BDS/Oricorio - both jumped on the specs train together quickly and if (big if) davy is town, pushing against his reveal together would look sus
Davy/Xiao - Xiao feigned ignorance on Robbie's inactivity and followed Davy post-reveal, and I have already given my take on Davy

I don't have theories on the respective third wolves in those pairings.

Since Oricorio and Davy are currently candidates I will likely choose one of them. I'm sorry I won't respond to feedback on this right away but I'll be back before phase end

You know we're looking for a team of three right?

And I'll assume you don't suspect SpecsFlyer17 at all?

[SpecsFlyer17]

iirc, davy is in a timezone opposite to the game, so that may be why he's not around.

I'm standing by my position that davy's choice to say all three lanterns were passed was odd. Definitely can be explained by either a misspeak or a strange man defense, but I still think it's suspicious behavior.

I also don't love the decision to share the lantern holders in the public thread. It narrowed the pool of potential strange man candidates, which helps prevent the wolves from failing a wolfing. My last post explained that. Sharing Toby's seering may have been an attempt to gain credibility with the town, but I think it helps the wolves.

[Oricorio]

iirc, davy is in a timezone opposite to the game, so that may be why he's not around.

I'm standing by my position that davy's choice to say all three lanterns were passed was odd. Definitely can be explained by either a misspeak or a strange man defense, but I still think it's suspicious behavior.

I also don't love the decision to share the lantern holders in the public thread. It narrowed the pool of potential strange man candidates, which helps prevent the wolves from failing a wolfing. My last post explained that. Sharing Toby's seering may have been an attempt to gain credibility with the town, but I think it helps the wolves.

Although you have to consider that if davy is a wolf, wolves already knew the identities of the lantern holders. W!davy outing them would have been more out of thoughtlessness than trying to gain an advantage over the Strange Man

[Oricorio]

Although you have to consider that if davy is a wolf, wolves already knew the identities of the lantern holders. W!davy outing them would have been more out of thoughtlessness than trying to gain an advantage over the Strange Man

The real concern is that t!davy has little reason to out like that, at least so recklessly without talking it over with the other lantern holders he thought were town

[SpecsFlyer17]

Although you have to consider that if davy is a wolf, wolves already knew the identities of the lantern holders. W!davy outing them would have been more out of thoughtlessness than trying to gain an advantage over the Strange Man

Yeah, although a wolf!davy and masterwolf!toby could be on the table. Toby seering green would be a opportunity credibility grab by revealing the green seering. Still, the odds of that are low, although it's a possibility.

[Toby]

I've been a bit rushed for time to catch up and make decisions this phase but I'm leaning towards specs so I'll place my vote there

specs

I just feel certain points were raised against him and he ignored them which I don't like

I feel he's using Davy to try scapegoat when davys actions regarding Robbie giving away the lantern or not are non alignment indicative

I was considering leaning into davy as I do feel him orchestrating the Robbie seering could be a ploy, as he didn't really offer up himself to be seered, and then claiming to the topic without discussing with the other lantern holders was also odd. But I don't think Davy and specs are together and I'm leaning more Specs

[Oricorio]

Yeah, although a wolf!davy and masterwolf!toby could be on the table. Toby seering green would be a opportunity credibility grab by revealing the green seering. Still, the odds of that are low, although it's a possibility.

Although you would question why he would have talked to threalmathguy instead of seering Robbie immediately, though from how threalmathguy responded it would seem that they offered to be seered and davy instead suggested to seer Robbie

I suppose a team of davy/Robbie/threalmathguy is a possibility, though it would be hilarious if true and I don't think that team would be so glib about outing

[TheZeldaPianist275]

One hour remains!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm keeping my vote on Specs unless anything changes. Right now there are 3 votes for Specs?

[Oricorio]

I'm keeping my vote on Specs unless anything changes. Right now there are 3 votes for Specs?

I believe so, plus 2 on me and one on davy. THC, TMP, and threalmathguy aren't voting

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Vote count:

Specs—3 (BDS, Oricorio, Toby)
Oricorio—2 (Davy, Xiao)
Davy—1 (Specs)

I will be dishing out phantoms for those who don't vote

[Oricorio]

I will be dishing out phantoms for those who don't vote

What does this mean exactly?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

A slap on the wrist to incentivize activity. One phantom per failure to vote in a day phase (instas notwithstanding). One phantom gives someone the edge in a tie vote; if player A has 4 votes against them and player B has 4 votes against them plus a phantom, player B dies without it going to a kitb. Three phantoms is an instadeath.

[therealmathguy]

You know we're looking for a team of three right?

And I'll assume you don't suspect SpecsFlyer17 at all?

I wouldn't say I don't suspect specs at all. Although I do think some people read too much into his early posts while his recent posts seem to be in the interest of humans. So I'm more neutral.

Specs has been a bigger opponent to Davy following the lantern reveal so if he's a wolf it'd likely mean he's a third to the hypothetical wolf pairing of you and BDS. But you guys voting him would be a risky play if that were true. Of course, that also depends on my read being accurate (even if just for one of you).

I also don't necessarily believe the wolf Davy and master wolf Toby idea but with Toby's vote I'm not UNconvinced