TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Oricorio]

you seem to be defending the strange man an awful lot which is kinda sus

Lynching the Strange Man just brings the wolves closer to their win condition. That is all.

[XiaoMigros]

In what way? Odds are the strange man will kill townies, if anyone

[Oricorio]

In what way? Odds are the strange man will kill townies, if anyone

The Strange Man counts towards town in terms of parity, so we'd be wasting our one mislynch on someone we know isn't a wolf

[Oricorio]

In what way? Odds are the strange man will kill townies, if anyone

Plus, if activated, the Strange Man is guaranteed to kill a wolf

[SpecsFlyer17]

If none of the lantern holders are wolves, then the wolves know 6 potential players who aren't the Strange Man now (the 3 lantern holders + 3 wolves), leaving 3 potential people they know to avoid wolfing.

Going off this, depending on how the lanterns roll tonight, the wolves may be able to narrow down the strange man within a night or so. If one of them rolls lantern on a given night, they can exclude their lantern buddies from the strange man pool. This also applies if someone spills information about who the lanterns holders are/were.
Something to be aware of.

Was sharing the lantern information in the public thread wise? As BDS mentioned, the wolves knowing the lantern crew allows them to narrow down the strange man pool and, more importantly, tells them who not to wolf. Of course, it doesn't really matter if a wolf had a lantern, but that's not apparent. I think the choice to seer Toby was fine given the circumstances, but davy's post shared 2 lantern holders' identities, and math shared the other. That's 3 people that can't be the strange man. In davy and math's defense, it's not a direct negative, but it does help the wolves avoid wolfing (and failing to wolf) the strange man on a given night.

[XiaoMigros]

Plus, if activated, the Strange Man is guaranteed to kill a wolf

activated?

[Oricorio]

activated?

If they guess right

[Oricorio]

Come on, almost two hours to EoD, we really have to be more active here

My question to threalmathguy, what are your thoughs on davy?

[Oricorio]

If one of the wolves is a lantern holder, they didn't nightkill a lantern holder who they knew wasn't the Strange Man. Granted, there being less lantern holders benefits the town so they may have been willing to take the risk, plus Robbie would just be a really weird nightkill target no matter how you look at it

[Toby]

I can't be as active as I'd like to be this end of phase but I can say Davy made no discussion with the other lantern holders before revealing the seer result. As if he felt no risk or wary in doing so which could be a wolf perspective

[Oricorio]

I can't be as active as I'd like to be this end of phase but I can say Davy made no discussion with the other lantern holders before revealing the seer result. As if he felt no risk or wary in doing so which could be a wolf perspective

If threalmathguy would like to confirm this, it'd be nice

Also what are your thoughts on davy's wallpost that me an BDS picked apart?

[Oricorio]

I can't be as active as I'd like to be this end of phase but I can say Davy made no discussion with the other lantern holders before revealing the seer result. As if he felt no risk or wary in doing so which could be a wolf perspective

Also who would you vote GTH?

[therealmathguy]

My question to threalmathguy, what are your thoughs on davy?

I don't think he was particularly wolfy, although I should've tried to get more info during the lantern PMs. I do find it strange that he revealed the passing of the lanterns (hence activity out of an otherwise inactive) and then became adamant that we drop it when caught in the lie.

I will say I offered my role to be shown in lantern chat before he suggested Robbie instead and he didn't offer his. I didn't press for info out of fear of outing the seer to a wolf, but I regret not having more of a discussion about the lantern seering first

[Oricorio]

Yeah, this is a situation where davy really needs to step up, but unfortunately he seems to have dipped

Also threalmathguy who would you vote GTH?

[therealmathguy]

Yeah, this is a situation where davy really needs to step up, but unfortunately he seems to have dipped

Also threalmathguy who would you vote GTH?

I see merit in arguments for the following wolf partnerships:
BDS/Oricorio - both jumped on the specs train together quickly and if (big if) davy is town, pushing against his reveal together would look sus
Davy/Xiao - Xiao feigned ignorance on Robbie's inactivity and followed Davy post-reveal, and I have already given my take on Davy

I don't have theories on the respective third wolves in those pairings.

Since Oricorio and Davy are currently candidates I will likely choose one of them. I'm sorry I won't respond to feedback on this right away but I'll be back before phase end