TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[XiaoMigros]

also doesnt this in total amount to me just giving my opinion

[Oricorio]

How??

Well, it would prevent the possibilty of three townies dying if the Strange Man guesses correctly and thus makes enlisting the help of the Strange Man a more appealing option to town as it will guarantee at least one wolf death. Still, it'd always be a bit of a risk

[XiaoMigros]

oh i forgot that the lanterns get put out, you good now

[Oricorio]

whats tinfoiling, whats poe?

Tinfoiling: promoting skepticism on a widely townread player, usually for petty reasons. While unavoidable in a game, it usually results in town fighting each other
POE: Process of elimination. For instance, if I treat A# Minor, threalmathguy, and Tobi/Robbie as obvious town, then everyone else (besides me) is in my POE. The goal is to get the POE to where it is (number of wolves + number of available mislynches), or in this game, four.

[XiaoMigros]

hmm okay

if youre talking about therealmathguy, i am in dire need of an explanation as to why they are town

[Oricorio]

Tinfoiling: promoting skepticism on a widely townread player, usually for petty reasons. While unavoidable in a game, it usually results in town fighting each other
POE: Process of elimination. For instance, if I treat A# Minor, threalmathguy, and Tobi/Robbie as obvious town, then everyone else (besides me) is in my POE. The goal is to get the POE to where it is (number of wolves + number of available mislynches), or in this game, four.

Of course, relying on the POE too much can be bad as it can allow a wolf to slip through the cracks. But it's more of an encouragement for townies to put in effort so they can be easily townread, and when put that way, it works

[Oricorio]

hmm okay

if youre talking about therealmathguy, i am in dire need of an explanation as to why they are town

threalmathguy: Had a mechanical question, then mostly dipped. Still, promoting the Strange Man is risky for a wolf as it would most likely get two of them killed... Although, if the wolves knew that all three lantern holders were town (as no wolves would be holding lanterns in that case), there may be a reason... although that is counteracted by their last post, which does suggest a progression and openness to the thread. Still GTH town for now.

This explains it pretty well, their actions are pretty hard to explain from a wolf perspective and they have a small but genuine progression (and them being one of the lantern holders eliminates one of my concerns in that post lol). Plus, when they're independently townread by so many people (at least five by my count), the chances they're a wolf go down dramatically.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Lynching davy would eliminate one of the lantern holders, which could be helpful to town. Still, I don't think he's wolfy enough to lynch today, even if I oddly mindmeld with BDS quite a bit in that that post was odd.

Yeah, what's weird is that I think Davy didn't go far enough with the lie, which I think human Davy would've known right away but wolf Davy might unintentionally slip because he wouldn't realize people would find it suspicious.

How??

To other people who might be questioning (I brought this up earlier in the game too, IIRC?): The fewer lanterns there are, the more sense it makes for town to safely team up with the Strange Man. If there's one lantern left and the person who has it knows they're a human, they essentially get to trade one human life for one wolf life which is a darn good deal. Conversely, if there are three lanterns left in an endgame scenario and all three lantern holders are humans, town desperately does not want Strange Man to guess the lanterns.

[Oricorio]

One thing I just realized is that confirming the identities of the lantern holders confirms that none of them are the Strange Man. Although if davy is a wolf, wolves knew this anyway, but it does seem a bit thoughtless to reveal in the thread from a town perspective. Though he did choose to keep threalmathguy hidden, so there's that.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

One thing I just realized is that confirming the identities of the lantern holders confirms that none of them are the Strange Man. Although if davy is a wolf, wolves knew this anyway, but it does seem a bit thoughtless to reveal in the thread from a town perspective. Though he did choose to keep threalmathguy hidden, so there's that.

If none of the lantern holders are wolves, then the wolves know 6 potential players who aren't the Strange Man now (the 3 lantern holders + 3 wolves), leaving 3 potential people they know to avoid wolfing.

[Oricorio]

Part of the disconnect is that davy was one of the players more vocal about hoping the wolves target the Strange Man.

[Oricorio]

Part of the disconnect is that davy was one of the players more vocal about hoping the wolves target the Strange Man.

As from a t!davy perspective, he would have believed all three lantern holders are likely town. It's hard to believe that he would not have considered this before outing

[Oricorio]

As from a t!davy perspective, he would have believed all three lantern holders are likely town. It's hard to believe that he would not have considered this before outing

Although you have to consider why out a green check on an easy mislynch if you're a wolf? Granted, it could grant town cred, wolves only need two mislynches to win, and davy might have felt pressured to out it before threalmathguy did. But it'd still be weird

[Oricorio]

Although you have to consider why out a green check on an easy mislynch if you're a wolf? Granted, it could grant town cred, wolves only need two mislynches to win, and davy might have felt pressured to out it before threalmathguy did. But it'd still be weird

There's also of course the possibility that Robbie/Tobi is Master Wolf, but whatever

[XiaoMigros]

you seem to be defending the strange man an awful lot which is kinda sus