TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Oricorio]

Toby already explained my reasoning in his last post, but I'd like to address this specifically. Not only wolves lie in TWG. In fact, we have seen a number of fake claims in previous games. A player lying doesn't make them wolfy. Players lying in a way that benifits the wolf team is wolfy.

Fair, though I'd say here the lie is NAI, both town and wolves would have reason to hide from the Strange Man in this scenario. Still, you probably should have caught on to the fact that people would question whether Robbie had really shown up.

[Oricorio]

I must say I'm quite surprised seeing how much Oricorio pushed for that information. I'd expect town!Oricorio to realise it'd only benifit the Strange Man, but it would also be a bit too obvious voor strangeman!Oricorio to fish for the information this way, so I'm getting a decently strong wolf!Oricorio lean from this, with him trying to pretend to be the Strange Man.

Although this part of the post stands out as weird; why would a wolf pretend to be the Strange Man when they can easily be counterclaimed? You could say to draw out and lynch the actual Strange Man, but it seems like an unnecessary risk when wolves only need two mislynches to win.

[Oricorio]

Although this part of the post stands out as weird; why would a wolf pretend to be the Strange Man when they can easily be counterclaimed? You could say to draw out and lynch the actual Strange Man, but it seems like an unnecessary risk when wolves only need two mislynches to win.

Town wasn't willing to bet the game on a 75-25 shot, do you think wolves would bet the game on a 50-50?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I've skimmed the thread since I last posted, but I'm gonna go back and respond to posts of note.

Ugh, guys, there is no benifit to town to put attention on the passing of lanterns during the night. This only helps the Strange Man guess. It's much better to be vague about it.

I must say I'm quite surprised seeing how much Oricorio pushed for that information. I'd expect town!Oricorio to realise it'd only benifit the Strange Man, but it would also be a bit too obvious voor strangeman!Oricorio to fish for the information this way, so I'm getting a decently strong wolf!Oricorio lean from this, with him trying to pretend to be the Strange Man.

This whole post is strange. Davy's worried about other people leaking information... that he already leaked?

The seering of Robbie naturally provokes the question of: if Robbie was active (as Davy's initial post seemed to suggest), then why would they seer Robbie instead of Davy? It made it seem as if Davy was a red wolf trying to intentionally avoid a seering. Of course, we know now that's not the case, but it's still odd that Davy is calling people out for something he brought to light.

The thing is, Davy should've known all that already. If Davy really wanted to obscure Robbie's actions without getting people to question it (as is a natural inclination in TWG) he should've said something like "Yeah Robbie sent us a DM early in the phase saying he was gonna pass his lantern but just dipped out completely after that."

BDS was initially not engaging much with the question of Robbie's actions, but then got involved once mathguy showed up, about 10 hours later. At that point, there hadn't been a lot of pushback against discussing discussing Robbie's actions, so I could see BDS being Oricorio's wolf partner trying to normalize the discussion so no suspicion would fall on Oricorio.

It's even stranger that you say this considering my very first response to your post was a comment about Robbie.

To be clear, I don't think Robbie/Toby is a wolf at this point in time, but I think it's still entirely possible that red wolf Davy took advantage of Robbie's inactivity to steer the seering away from himself. In that case, I think Specs is a likely partner, but the third slot is open to a few potential candidates (but I think Xiao is a likely choice, with Poet/THC being next most likely).

And the thought of Oricorio and BDS being wolf partners quite scares me, considering how they have been dominating the topic.

There were times earlier in the game where I deliberately tried to avoid engaging with Oricorio specifically to not dominate the conversation. I mentioned that to both A# and Specs via DM.

[XiaoMigros]

Right now, I am going to do something called a trustfall exercise. In a trustfall, you list your biggest reason(s) for reading each player as town. It can help you avoid tunneling and confirmation bias, and it provides interesting results for which players' reasons are hardest to come up with/least convincing.

This seems like a helpful idea, let me try:

SpecsFlyer17: Pretty responsive and going along with the game
A# Minor: literally dead and green
davy: revealed lantern information which was nice, has had some nice thoughts and ideas
threalmathguy: confirmed the lantern information
BlackDragonSlayer: same as always, not afraid to speak out and providing mostly helpful commentary
Oricorio: Extremely engaged and responsive
ThatHiddenCharacter: All low number of posts have seemed thoughtful
Robbie89/Toby: Is green
The Musical Poet: Responded organically to stuff

[Oricorio]

This seems like a helpful idea, let me try:

SpecsFlyer17: Pretty responsive and going along with the game
A# Minor: literally dead and green
davy: revealed lantern information which was nice, has had some nice thoughts and ideas
threalmathguy: confirmed the lantern information
BlackDragonSlayer: same as always, not afraid to speak out and providing mostly helpful commentary
Oricorio: Extremely engaged and responsive
ThatHiddenCharacter: All low number of posts have seemed thoughtful
Robbie89/Toby: Is green
The Musical Poet: Responded organically to stuff

A few of these (Specs, THC, TMP) seem very similar to mine, although it could be as indicative of a similar towny mindset as it can be of sheeping

[BlackDragonSlayer]

redwolf!davy and masterwolf!robbie is possible, but pretty unlikely from an odds perspective. What you suggested seems plausible if the roles did lined up that way. If 2+ wolves rolled lanterns, the wolves would be very hesitant to give information to about lanterns because a correct strange man guess would effectively end the game for the wolves. davy has been forthcoming with information regarding the lanterns, so I'm hesitant to think redwolf!davy and masterwolf!robbie is what happened here. Claiming that the lanterns were passed still gives the strange man some information.

In hindsight, I don't think redwolf!davy and masterwolf!robbie is likely, but if it did happen, it means both of them would've passed on their lanterns—so giving information on lanterns wouldn't do them much harm while giving davy human points.

Pretty surprised to see Xiao switch his vote to Oricorio shortly after declaring that he intends to vote me or THC. He explained why he isn't voting for me, but then doesn't vote for THC while he didn't name Oricorio before.

I still have a human lean on him, but am a bit more sus of him than before.

In Xiao's defense, that's pretty par for the course for Xiao.

Fair, but I'm curious about robbie's situation.

Something isn't quite adding up.
davy mentioned that all three lanterns were passed, which implies robbie did two things. One, communicated to TZP that he wanted to pass the lantern, two, made this information public to the other lantern holders. So if davy's story is to be believed, davy has seen robbie speak.
But Math noted that robbie wasn't involved in the seering discussion.

So was robbie completely silent, besides telling the lantern chat that he wanted to pass his lantern? And furthermore, if robbie has spoken in the lantern group, why has he not showed up in the makn thread?

Something isn't adding up to me.

Post feels a bit strange; seems like it's just re-treading ground that's already been covered.

davy

For reasons above. Claimed all three lanterns were passed, but robbie has been replaced, apparently for inactivity.

If davy/Specs/? is a wolf pairing, then I think this is a prime example of distancing. Can't help but feel it was a vote made intentionally to get on my good side, especially since I was one of the people questioning davy's initial post about the seering.

[XiaoMigros]

Now for the wolfy reasons:

SpecsFlyer17: weird lantern stuff i cant get my head around
davy: strikingly odd choice to reveal the seering to the public at this stage in the game
threalmathguy: only alibi is confirming information that was already public
BlackDragonSlayer: davy-bashing for reasons i dont quite understand?? oris fixation on robbie is rather odd, not necessarily sus, but worth pointing out regardless
Oricorio: bad reads and weird intentions are masked by the sheer number of posts
ThatHiddenCharacter: not very present, and not particularly helpful when present
Robbie89/Toby: could be master wolf i guess
The Musical Poet: hasnt provided much insightful info

[XiaoMigros]

A few of these (Specs, THC, TMP) seem very similar to mine, although it could be as indicative of a similar towny mindset as it can be of sheeping

well yeah thats the case for basically all information people agree on here

[Oricorio]

Town wasn't willing to bet the game on a 75-25 shot, do you think wolves would bet the game on a 50-50?

And also, if town does decide to use the services of the Strange Man, if the Strange Man is lynched said wolf will be outed. It's just not something that a wolf would do

[Oricorio]

Now for the wolfy reasons:

SpecsFlyer17: weird lantern stuff i cant get my head around
davy: strikingly odd choice to reveal the seering to the public at this stage in the game
threalmathguy: only alibi is confirming information that was already public
BlackDragonSlayer: davy-bashing for reasons i dont quite understand?? oris fixation on robbie is rather odd, not necessarily sus, but worth pointing out regardless
Oricorio: bad reads and weird intentions are masked by the sheer number of posts
ThatHiddenCharacter: not very present, and not particularly helpful when present
Robbie89/Toby: could be master wolf i guess
The Musical Poet: hasnt provided much insightful info

While trustfalls for a town perspective are common and helpful, ones for a wolf perspective only serve to promote tinfoiling and expansion of the POE. I have my eye on you for this, especially as it wasn't prompted

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also on Robert (me) being seered by the lantern holders. That was fine and made sense to seer the inactive player.

Davy saying that all three lanterns being passed despite the uncertainty of that being actually true due to Robert being inactive is also fine. He's clearly trying to throw the strange man off and the fact that him saying that can be agreed/disagreed with by the other 2 lantern holders means there's no reason for him to say it in a deceiving way to benefit the wolves, because if it was a benefit to him as a wolf to lie about it, he risked being called out by the other 2 lantern holders.

As I mentioned just prior, it's fine that Davy was seemingly trying to throw the Strange Man off, but the way he did it felt weird and with very obvious cracks in his story; I think it could be a genuine slip with him not expecting people to question his story (because his story is true, just presented weirdly).

I think Specs is trying to jump on that to push the lynch elsewhere when trying to be mysterious on the location of the lanterns I don't think is necessarily suspicious. I actually think being openly deceitful gives clear human points.

If Specs was trying to push a lynch purely to save himself, he'd just jump on the Oricorio bandwagon, but he's not doing that because of how obviously suspicious it would look at this point in time. I don't think he's genuinely trying to push a davy lynch, I just think he knows his options are limited and (if he can't save himself from being lynched) is trying to sow seeds of doubt over his potential wolf pairings.

If Specs suddenly claims Strange Man, I think my next vote would be Oricorio. I think it's a good idea to leave Davy alive at least one more phase—but regardless of who we lynch today, I think Davy should get a fair bit more scrutiny next phase (whether by a lantern seering or the actual seer seering him).

While trustfalls for a town perspective are common and helpful, ones for a wolf perspective only serve to promote tinfoiling and expansion of the POE. I have my eye on you for this, especially as it wasn't prompted

idk, I think there are valid arguments for making both sets of trustfalls. Tunneling can go both ways, after all.

[Oricorio]

Lynching davy would eliminate one of the lantern holders, which could be helpful to town. Still, I don't think he's wolfy enough to lynch today, even if I oddly mindmeld with BDS quite a bit in that that post was odd.

[XiaoMigros]

Lynching davy would eliminate one of the lantern holders, which could be helpful to town.

How??

[XiaoMigros]

While trustfalls for a town perspective are common and helpful, ones for a wolf perspective only serve to promote tinfoiling and expansion of the POE. I have my eye on you for this, especially as it wasn't prompted

whats tinfoiling, whats poe?