TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Toby]

Also on Robert (me) being seered by the lantern holders. That was fine and made sense to seer the inactive player.

Davy saying that all three lanterns being passed despite the uncertainty of that being actually true due to Robert being inactive is also fine. He's clearly trying to throw the strange man off and the fact that him saying that can be agreed/disagreed with by the other 2 lantern holders means there's no reason for him to say it in a deceiving way to benefit the wolves, because if it was a benefit to him as a wolf to lie about it, he risked being called out by the other 2 lantern holders.

I think Specs is trying to jump on that to push the lynch elsewhere when trying to be mysterious on the location of the lanterns I don't think is necessarily suspicious. I actually think being openly deceitful gives clear human points.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I don't follow your reasons, can you explain?

Yes. When davy told us that robbie was seer'd green, he stated that all three lanterns were being passed.

I am not worried about handing this information over to the Strange Man, as all lanterns were passed this phase, so this won't help him guessing the lantern holders next night phase.

Since each player independently decides whether or not to pass their lantern, robbie must have told davy and TZP that he wanted to pass it. So this proves that robbie was active, at least once. However, Math later stated that robbie was not involved in the decision to seer himself, and this aligns with TZP removing him from the game, presumably for inactivity.

All in all, something isn't lining up right. To me, this is the most suspicious, tangible evidence that I've seen of something being sus.

[Oricorio]

Ugh, guys, there is no benifit to town to put attention on the passing of lanterns during the night. This only helps the Strange Man guess. It's much better to be vague about it.

I must say I'm quite surprised seeing how much Oricorio pushed for that information. I'd expect town!Oricorio to realise it'd only benifit the Strange Man, but it would also be a bit too obvious voor strangeman!Oricorio to fish for the information this way, so I'm getting a decently strong wolf!Oricorio lean from this, with him trying to pretend to be the Strange Man.

BDS was initially not engaging much with the question of Robbie's actions, but then got involved once mathguy showed up, about 10 hours later. At that point, there hadn't been a lot of pushback against discussing discussing Robbie's actions, so I could see BDS being Oricorio's wolf partner trying to normalize the discussion so no suspicion would fall on Oricorio.

And the thought of Oricorio and BDS being wolf partners quite scares me, considering how they have been dominating the topic.

Hey, I was looking for info on Robbie so we actually had something to read him off of in case he was the Master Wolf. Of course, now that he's replaced this is no longer an issue.

[Oricorio]

Hi

Oricorio: can you link your most recent game from your main forum please

Here's the most recent completed game from the closest thing I have to a main forum (I'm a bit of a drifter): https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2237 Though keep in mind that game had a post restriction.

There's also another game there that is still ongoing, though I have already flipped town.

[Oricorio]

Anyway, appreciate the effort from Toby's posts, I am now much more comfortable leaving that slot alive.

[Oricorio]

reason: i feel like you've monopolised the conversation yet there are serious holes in your logic you seem to refuse to adress

Can you provide examples?

[Oricorio]

Oh, and "hedge" means "refusing to commit to a side", as in "hedging my bets"

[Toby]

Here's the most recent completed game from the closest thing I have to a main forum (I'm a bit of a drifter): https://www.mafiathesyndicate.com/viewtopic.php?t=2237 Though keep in mind that game had a post restriction.

There's also another game there that is still ongoing, though I have already flipped town.

whats your forum name on that site

[Oricorio]

whats your forum name on that site

leetic

[SpecsFlyer17]

Also on Robert (me) being seered by the lantern holders. That was fine and made sense to seer the inactive player.

Davy saying that all three lanterns being passed despite the uncertainty of that being actually true due to Robert being inactive is also fine. He's clearly trying to throw the strange man off and the fact that him saying that can be agreed/disagreed with by the other 2 lantern holders means there's no reason for him to say it in a deceiving way to benefit the wolves, because if it was a benefit to him as a wolf to lie about it, he risked being called out by the other 2 lantern holders.

I think Specs is trying to jump on that to push the lynch elsewhere when trying to be mysterious on the location of the lanterns I don't think is necessarily suspicious. I actually think being openly deceitful gives clear human points.

That makes sense, although I still think its a rather odd play to deliberately lie about a player passing off a lantern when it can be concluded that they in fact, didn't. I don't see it as alarming as I did before you chimed in, but I still see it as strange behavior.

[XiaoMigros]

Can you provide examples?

I'll try but there's a lot to digest...

[XiaoMigros]

In general I've just found myself disagreeing with a lot of your logic, but instead of resolving what was said it's been jumping to the next thing instead

[davy]

All in all, something isn't lining up right. To me, this is the most suspicious, tangible evidence that I've seen of something being sus.

Toby already explained my reasoning in his last post, but I'd like to address this specifically. Not only wolves lie in TWG. In fact, we have seen a number of fake claims in previous games. A player lying doesn't make them wolfy. Players lying in a way that benifits the wolf team is wolfy.

[Oricorio]

Current vote totals, as far as I can tell:

SpecsFlyer17: Oricorio, BlackDragonSlayer (2)
Oricorio: davy, XiaoMigros (2)
davy: SpecsFlyer17 (1)

[Oricorio]

Right now, I am going to do something called a trustfall exercise. In a trustfall, you list your biggest reason(s) for reading each player as town. It can help you avoid tunneling and confirmation bias, and it provides interesting results for which players' reasons are hardest to come up with/least convincing.

SpecsFlyer17: Did come in trying to get some stuff done, has been decently responsive
A# Minor: Only player to die in a night, with there being no way as far as I can tell that this can happen to a wolf in this setup
davy: Has been decently open about the green seering, did try to read threalmathguy before seering the inactive green slot which would be easy as a wolf
threalmathguy: It's hard to read a wolfy motivation for any of their posts, is pretty much a universal townread
BlackDragonSlayer: Has been willing to push the game forward, has some bold stances
XiaoMigros: Earlygame was decently strong
ThatHiddenCharacter: Posts show a decent amount of thought for a low-poster
Robbie89/Toby: Green check, Toby's posts feel solve-y
The Musical Poet: Reactions to other people feel natural

Of these, the ones I least believe are SpecsFlyer17, XiaoMigros, and ThatHiddenCharacter.