TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[XiaoMigros]

that said i dont share your view on bds, davy, but that may or may not change as time goes on

[SpecsFlyer17]

SpecsFlyer17: Opening is still a little odd. The reason why I jumped on it was because last game I caught a wolf who showed TMI in a similar manner, but that wolf had admitted to not reading the thread and it's more believable that he had read the thread. Still, the "reads list" is a bit of a problem, being hedgy on all but one player (threalmathguy town seems to be his only real stance), which doesn't look too good (although at least it's not whole paragraphs of nothing, which is really wolfy). Still a suspect, though not a very strong one as I can still understand their actions from a town perspective.

I've explained my thoughts on the opening earlier. And yes, Math was really the only one I was fairly confident on at the time. I disagree that that's a bad look; I'd rather stay open (especially on D1) given how little information we have yet. Stronger opinions will come as the game progresses.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Re Robbie situation: I personally think we need to take Robbie seering green at face value right now. If he truly is the master wolf (16.6% chance, as there could be 6 green players alive now), then that would be quite unfortunate; but the odds are low so I don't think its worth much thought at the moment. TZP can deal with the inactivity situation as he sees fit.

[SpecsFlyer17]

It's not that, it's just that wolf Davy would be much more dangerous. Though the fact that Robbie was completely silent lessens the possibility significantly, I could totally see a world where Davy (as a red wolf) orchestrated a seering of Robbie (as the master wolf).

redwolf!davy and masterwolf!robbie is possible, but pretty unlikely from an odds perspective. What you suggested seems plausible if the roles did lined up that way. If 2+ wolves rolled lanterns, the wolves would be very hesitant to give information to about lanterns because a correct strange man guess would effectively end the game for the wolves. davy has been forthcoming with information regarding the lanterns, so I'm hesitant to think redwolf!davy and masterwolf!robbie is what happened here. Claiming that the lanterns were passed still gives the strange man some information.

[davy]

Specs, who are you inclined to vote for this phase? There's less than 12 hours remaining in the phase, and I'd like to avoid a last minute vote rush (and this time I hope it actually doesn't happen).

[davy]

Pretty surprised to see Xiao switch his vote to Oricorio shortly after declaring that he intends to vote me or THC. He explained why he isn't voting for me, but then doesn't vote for THC while he didn't name Oricorio before.

I still have a human lean on him, but am a bit more sus of him than before.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Ugh, guys, there is no benifit to town to put attention on the passing of lanterns during the night. This only helps the Strange Man guess. It's much better to be vague about it.

Fair, but I'm curious about robbie's situation.

Something isn't quite adding up.
davy mentioned that all three lanterns were passed, which implies robbie did two things. One, communicated to TZP that he wanted to pass the lantern, two, made this information public to the other lantern holders. So if davy's story is to be believed, davy has seen robbie speak.
But Math noted that robbie wasn't involved in the seering discussion.

So was robbie completely silent, besides telling the lantern chat that he wanted to pass his lantern? And furthermore, if robbie has spoken in the lantern group, why has he not showed up in the makn thread?

Something isn't adding up to me.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs, who are you inclined to vote for this phase? There's less than 12 hours remaining in the phase, and I'd like to avoid a last minute vote rush (and this time I hope it actually doesn't happen).

I want to get a resolution to the message I just posted before I vote.

davy (waiting on a clarification of the robbie situation), Xiao (for the abrupt Oricorio vote as soon as davy voted), and possibly Oricorio are my main leads right now.

[XiaoMigros]

I still have a human lean on him, but am a bit more sus of him than before.

if i wanted to avoid looking sus i just wouldnt have changed my vote?? ive had a bad feeling about oricorio since the beginning, and that feeling now outweighs how i felt about the other candidates (for now)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Robbie89 has been replaced by Toby.

[XiaoMigros]

fascinating

[SpecsFlyer17]

davy

For reasons above. Claimed all three lanterns were passed, but robbie has been replaced, apparently for inactivity.

[XiaoMigros]

I don't follow your reasons, can you explain?

[Toby]

Hi

Oricorio: can you link your most recent game from your main forum please

[Toby]

I'll post some thoughts while reading and looking around Oricorio's posts in particular since he has generated most discussion


Oricorio's playstyle of commenting on everyone's openers and trying to create discussion by responding to everything is fine, it's a playstyle, it's not inherently sus. He clearly comes from a more active forum and it is refreshing to see a new play style come to NSM. NSM is generally on the quieter side with forum twg, some forums could do 20 pages a day, whereas I think we are 5-10 max. My only initial request from Oricorio is to be aware that you clearly come from elsewhere so be mindful when using certain acronyms or terms like 'GTH' or 'Hedge' as I'm pretty sure no one here knows what you are talking about unless you explain it. So my first question is: What is hedging? lol

I think a lot of Oricorio's reads on opening posts are null because of the less aggressive playstyle of majority of NSM players. A lot of the opening posts are just 'hey guys' or a joke or whatever. However, I did like how this created discussion, and I think openers that come in later pages of the game provided more info rather than opening posts on page 1/2.

One thing I did notice was this exchange between Oricario and Specs:

Heyyyyy we started!

I'll be honest, I'm trying to avoid reading too deeply into these openers. "Sorry I'm late" or "Reporting for duty" just seem like innocent introductions that shouldn't be read in to.

I agree with this opinion, completely fine, but I noticed this is on the bottom of page 4 for me and this opening post does suggest Specs has read as least some of the topic to have this view as Oricario later also notes. And 1 minute later Specs then posts this which makes reference to Xiao's post that is on the top of page 3

bds i think you're the strange man

BDS is definitely a strange man, but he is the strange man?

Now this tells me that Specs is likely reading the topic and making posts as he is reading rather than reading all of the topic first and then making posts-  which is also fine. I do this myself as a playstyle at times. I would also like to note that in reference to BDS saying that Specs making this joke could be 'buddying' because BDS also made it. I personally don't read into buddying, I don't think you'll ever catch someone intentionally buddying, I think it's more likely Specs just made the same joke and didn't see BDS make it yet. (which makes sense if he is replying as he is reading rather than reading all of the topic at once.

Standard fluff opening, when more has happened at this point. The second paragraph suggests they know more about what has happened in the thread, but they still have the fluff intro. GTH wolf

I should expand on this, since this is less a silly attempt to read someone based onan opening post and more a legitimate ping. If you're bothered about my posts looking at other people's openers, then you've clearly read the whole thread at this point, but why just have a fluff intro and nothing more substantial? This whole thing feels planned

I want to say that from what I've gathered above, Specs likely hadn't actually read the entire topic by that point. Given the fact his consecutive posts were a minute a part and referenced Xiao's post that was nearly 30 posts back, he likely hadn't read the entire topic when he made his post. What I find interesting is Oricorio asked the (bold) question to Specs but Specs never actually responded to that?

You're right, it's never too early to start gathering data on people. All I'm saying is that I don't want to incriminate someone based on nothing but an introduction post. Let's see how things develop.

Specs never acknowledged or even responded to what I bolded from Oricorio's post, anyone else find that odd? Considering Specs that 1) it's a question, 2) Oricorio is hinting suspicion towards Specs with that question and 3) I don't think Specs actually did read the entire topic when he was posting so surely you could just say that?

I just find it a bit odd Specs never actually responded to that

Because Oricorio has voted and put sus on Specs which I agree with and I therefore wouldn't see an !wolfs Oricorio:Specs, I'm not going to avoid diving deeper into his posts at moment as I lean wolf on Specs and human on Oricorio