TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Oricorio]

If threalmathguy is a wolf, they're doing a really great job of fooling everyone. That said, if someone's independently townread this way by at least half the thread, there's a 95+% chance they're town. So I think we can all start from the position that threalmathguy is town.

[Oricorio]

It's slightly strange how you keep pushing and pushing to gain some info, but perhaps that's just me going loopy :>

That's a playstyle that is quite common on more active communities like TS and FoL. Is there anything about the pushes you find odd?

[XiaoMigros]

Is there anything about the pushes you find odd?

Not inherently but it doesn't help me keep an oversight

[XiaoMigros]

If threalmathguy is a wolf, they're doing a really great job of fooling everyone. That said, if someone's independently townread this way by at least half the thread, there's a 95+% chance they're town. So I think we can all start from the position that threalmathguy is town.

why?? all they did was share information known to at least one other member. I don't see how this clears them at all...

[XiaoMigros]

Also, you didn't mention threalmathguy. Do you agree with everyone else that they're town?

There's my answer to this lol

[XiaoMigros]

As for Specs and BDS, I'd rather not jump to conclusions just yet since they don't seem that much more sus than they always do (Specs has been a slightly less than helpful though, but am I better??)

[therealmathguy]

I mean, it should be obvious, resolving a slank slot is important since it won't be resolved any other way. If they have further elaboration, though, I wouldn't mind hearing it.

This^

Davy suggested it first after testing my reaction and I agreed to get that info we might not get otherwise

[Oricorio]

This^

Davy suggested it first after testing my reaction and I agreed to get that info we might not get otherwise

Did Robbie say anything to you?

[Oricorio]

why?? all they did was share information known to at least one other member. I don't see how this clears them at all...

So I guess you're a null on them? You're the only person who hasn't explicitly read them town, I guess that means Xiao/math probably isn't w/w for what it's worth

[Oricorio]

As for Specs and BDS, I'd rather not jump to conclusions just yet since they don't seem that much more sus than they always do (Specs has been a slightly less than helpful though, but am I better??)

Do you have a read that isn't a hedge?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Did Robbie say anything to you?

That's what I'm wondering. If Robbie was completely (or mostly) silent, that seering makes perfect sense, but if Robbie was actively involved in a PM discussion with the other lantern holders then it's a bit of an odd seering choice when it would be better to potentially catch wolf davy (assuming he's a red wolf).

[Oricorio]

If Robbie said something, then we also have something to work off and he isn't a completely dead slot. While we shouldn't lynch him today or tomorrow even, we can't ignore the possibility that he is Master Wolf forever if we are gonna win, and thus having anything to work off with that slot would be very helpful.

[therealmathguy]

That's what I'm wondering. If Robbie was completely (or mostly) silent, that seering makes perfect sense, but if Robbie was actively involved in a PM discussion with the other lantern holders then it's a bit of an odd seering choice when it would be better to potentially catch wolf davy (assuming he's a red wolf).

No Robbie wasn't involved in that process.

I can see the wolf Davy possibility but why do you suspect Davy is more likely to be wolf than Robbie (pre seer result)?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

No Robbie wasn't involved in that process.

I can see the wolf Davy possibility but why do you suspect Davy is more likely to be wolf than Robbie (pre seer result)?

It's not that, it's just that wolf Davy would be much more dangerous. Though the fact that Robbie was completely silent lessens the possibility significantly, I could totally see a world where Davy (as a red wolf) orchestrated a seering of Robbie (as the master wolf).

[Oricorio]

If Robbie said something, then we also have something to work off and he isn't a completely dead slot. While we shouldn't lynch him today or tomorrow even, we can't ignore the possibility that he is Master Wolf forever if we are gonna win, and thus having anything to work off with that slot would be very helpful.

Although if he's town and slanks on LyLo, that's very very bad. It might mean we don't even have one free mislynch if not all town will show up to vote. Still, I suppose it's up to the host to enforce activity