TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[Oricorio]

Yes, you did.Prime strange man behavior right there
There's a difference between pushing the game forward and merely generating pages. I should know, because in the last game I made a semi-deliberate attempt to generate pages without doing much to actually push the game forward in the human team's favor (and the exact result of it was that a lot of people who would have contributed were suddenly a lot more hesitant to until the smoke had cleared).

If you're genuinely interested in pushing the game forward, I suggest you take a step back for the time being. Wait until at least a few people give their thoughts on recent events:

In order to push the game forward, I need others to cooperate, there's only so much I can do on my own. So tell me, what's your GTH on all the people who have posted so far?

[Oricorio]

From a strategy perspective, what do we think about trying to get an early strange man claim?

I think it would be beneficial because:

• the seer can avoid running into him and facing the consequences (I assume seer dies at the hands of strange man)
• the strange man is more valuable to humans since he takes a wolf down guaranteed along with the lantern holders and therefore anyone pushing for his lynch is likely wolf
• can't be wolfed so no harm in claiming if humans don't want him gone
• any fraudulent claims are likely wolf

Is there anything from a wolf perspective that I'm failing to consider that would stop this from being beneficial to humans and strange man alike?

From what I understand, lynching the Strange Man would not bring town closer to their win condition, so it would be wise for town to cooperate with the Strange Man to some extent. However, it may be better to wait until the next night phase to openly cooperate, as then the lanterns can be handed to the wolfiest players and then they can be offed. The power is essentially similar to having multiple vig shots, so there is certainly something to be gained by collaborating. However, I haven't played this setup before so I will admit I'm not entirely sure how this will play out in practice.

[Oricorio]

From what I understand, lynching the Strange Man would not bring town closer to their win condition, so it would be wise for town to cooperate with the Strange Man to some extent. However, it may be better to wait until the next night phase to openly cooperate, as then the lanterns can be handed to the wolfiest players and then they can be offed. The power is essentially similar to having multiple vig shots, so there is certainly something to be gained by collaborating. However, I haven't played this setup before so I will admit I'm not entirely sure how this will play out in practice.

Oh wait, I saw the setup was changed to prevent this scenario. Never mind then, but collaboration could still be beneficial depending on who has the lanterns

[Oricorio]

The thing is, if even one of the lantern holders is a wolf then that could cause the Strange Man to take out 2/3 of the wolf team in one go. And since one of the flipped players will essentially be a confirmed wolf, that gives us a lot of information to go on for finding the last. It's a risky option, but one that we should keep in mind.

[Oricorio]

And consider that, since the lanterns were given to three seperate people, and that the Strange Man cannot hold a lantern, that means there is an over 75% chance for at least one of the lantern holders to be a wolf

[Oricorio]

Still, whether you're willing to bet the game on a 75% chance is up to you. If we have reasons to believe that one of the lantern holders is a wolf, though, then we should consider going for it

[Oricorio]

Worst case scenario: All three lantern holders are town, they get killed alongside a wolf and another townie who is nightkilled. It would result in 2-2-1, LYLO but not necessarily the best scenario for town as the Strange Man has no incentive to side with either town or wolves at this point. Chance: a little under 25%

Average scenario: one wolf holds a lantern, the Strange Man kills two town and two wolves alongside one townie who is nightkilled. Results in 3-1-1, giving town two chances to off the remaining wolf. Chance: About 66%, if my calculations are correct

Best case scenario: two or more wolves hold lanterns, with one of them being a master wolf. This allows the Strange Man to eliminate the entire wolf team in one fell swoop. Chances: a bit under 6%

There is also a 2% chance that the two wolves are normal wolves with one townie holding a lantern. This will result in effectively the same situation as the average scenario but with an extra townie.

These are some hard numbers in case they help. Of course, the math can change to benefit the town if the wolves try to nightkill a townie holding the lantern or the Strange Man. Thus, if town does decide to cooperate with the Strange Man, it might be best to do so via PM.

[Oricorio]

Of course, a thing to consider is that unless the wolves try to NK the Strange Man, town really only has one mislynch to play around with. And given that the Strange Man has a 75% chance of correctly guessing at least one of the lantern owners by just taking a shot in the dark, town might not even get that.

[Oricorio]

Of course, a thing to consider is that unless the wolves try to NK the Strange Man, town really only has one mislynch to play around with. And given that the Strange Man has a 75% chance of correctly guessing at least one of the lantern owners by just taking a shot in the dark, town might not even get that.

So really, the "average" scenario is an improvement over the current situation for town, and even the "worst-case" scenario basically gives town the same margin of error as before, although the Strange Man gains more power over the result which is probably undesirable

[Oricorio]

Er wait, we do have two mislynches, still not used to ITPs being counted towards town in terms of parity. Still, keep in mind that there is a large risk of the Strange Man only killing town and not scum by taking a shot in the dark, which has to be kept in mind

[Oricorio]

The biggest problem with lynching the Strange Man is that they count towards town in terms of parity. If we do that, then we will truly only have one mislynch to work with, the same as with an average scenario for cooperation. Plus, it eliminates the possiblity that wolves will try to kill the Strange Man, which is one of the only ways to help our numbers.

[Oricorio]

One thing to keep in mind is it does make sense for the Strange Man to side with town, at least in the early game. More wolf lynches = more time for the Strange Man to guess the identities of the lantern holders

[Oricorio]

And before someone accuses me of "drowning the thread", come on! It's not my fault that nobody else is posting. Come on, town needs to be vocal and active if we're going to win this!

[The Musical Poet]

Alright, time for my daily pop-in.


To be frank, there isn't much information to glean from people as of now :>
Along with my horrible win last round. (I literally won by doing nothing), I have not learned much. So for now, I will stay quiet.

[Oricorio]

Alright, time for my daily pop-in.


To be frank, there isn't much information to glean from people as of now :>
Along with my horrible win last round. (I literally won by doing nothing), I have not learned much. So for now, I will stay quiet.

"Isn't much information?" What are you talking about, we have over two pages of it! Can you at least give me a read on BDS?