TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Wait what? Am I interpreting this incorrectly or are you suggesting we waste our one mislynch on removing the Strange Man?

This scenario is assuming we've already seered a wolf red. The most logical thing to do would just be to lynch that wolf then and there. On the flipside, the worst possible scenario would be trying to shoot for another wolf, mislynching, then the Strange Man guessing and killing 3 humans + the wolf we already seered. Somewhere in the middle would be lynching the Strange Man (assuming they claimed publicly), having a guaranteed wolf lynch the next day, and using the night phase to get an extra lantern seering in (or even two extra seerings if the first red seering was from the lanterns). Plus, it completely removes the possibility of three humans (one of which could be our seer) dying suddenly.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Of course, that's also contingent on not having a lantern holder get wolfed tonight. The more lanterns are put out, the less of a threat the Strange Man is to the human team.

On the subject of the lanterns, regarding the statistics of whether it's likely a wolf is holding a lantern tonight, I think it'd be more likely for a wolf lantern holder to pass on their lantern than a human. In a case where N1 it's 2 humans and 1 wolf holding lanterns (which I believe was identified as statistically the most likely scenario?) and the wolf passes on their lantern, there's a good chance N2 could be three humans holding lanterns.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Of course, that doesn't take into account kills from the Strange Man, which can change things a bit. Today, there's a 75% chance of the Strange Man getting at least one right, and that number could be higher or lower next night depending on if anyone holding the lanterns gets killed. Worst case, the Strange Man kills two townies and the wolves kill another, which would make the first day phase LyLo

Wait, does the strange man have to get all 3 correct to kill, or can he kill 1 or 2 if he guesses 1 or 2 correctly? I was under the assumption that it was all or nothing. If he doesn't get all 3 correct, no one dies. (fewer if lanterns have been removed)

[davy]

Wait, does the strange man have to get all 3 correct to kill, or can he kill 1 or 2 if he guesses 1 or 2 correctly? I was under the assumption that it was all or nothing. If he doesn't get all 3 correct, no one dies. (fewer if lanterns have been removed)

I assumed all at once, as that's how I ruled it in my game with the lanterns, but I suppose we can phrase this as a

TWG question

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Grab bag of questions:

-No mystery elements. The game is the game, and the seer does not die if he seers the Strange Man, or if the Strange Man guesses his identity.
-To hit his win condition, the Strange Man must guess all extant lanterns. Obv this is easier to do when there's only one left than when there are three. The Strange Man guessing only one name correct when there are three active lanterns will not result in anything happening at all.
-If the Strange Man dies, the lanterns stay in play.
-A lantern seering will be sent to the pool of lantern holders who held the lanterns that night phase—not the group that receives them the next night.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'd also like to piggyback off this with an important question: If the Strange Man guesses all the lantern holders correctly, and one of the red wolves is a lantern holder, are both red wolves guaranteed to die, or is there a chance the red wolf lantern holder could essentially "die twice," so to say?

Sorry BDS, missed this—in this context, both red wolves would die, yes. The formula is "all lantern holders + a red wolf if there is still a red wolf left to be killed".

[Oricorio]

This scenario is assuming we've already seered a wolf red. The most logical thing to do would just be to lynch that wolf then and there. On the flipside, the worst possible scenario would be trying to shoot for another wolf, mislynching, then the Strange Man guessing and killing 3 humans + the wolf we already seered. Somewhere in the middle would be lynching the Strange Man (assuming they claimed publicly), having a guaranteed wolf lynch the next day, and using the night phase to get an extra lantern seering in (or even two extra seerings if the first red seering was from the lanterns). Plus, it completely removes the possibility of three humans (one of which could be our seer) dying suddenly.

If we openly seer a wolf red, what is the point of leaving them alive? This makes no sense

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

If we openly seer a wolf red, what is the point of leaving them alive? This makes no sense

He was saying that if a wolf is openly seer'd, we should lynch them, and only do the other options as a last resort. Personally, I'm inclined to agree with BDS here. From what I've read, Oricorio appears to be saying a lot of things that sound important, but don't actually contain much substance. I'm not sure if that makes them the Strange Man, though.

Btw, had no idea the game started, I'm here now.

[Oricorio]

He was saying that if a wolf is openly seer'd, we should lynch them, and only do the other options as a last resort. Personally, I'm inclined to agree with BDS here. From what I've read, Oricorio appears to be saying a lot of things that sound important, but don't actually contain much substance. I'm not sure if that makes them the Strange Man, though.

Btw, had no idea the game started, I'm here now.

Saying they had no idea the game started, but talking as if they've been here quite a bit longer. GTH wolf

[Oricorio]

And since Robbie is the last to arrive, GTH wolf on that slot since wolves have more reason to slank than town. Alright, we can do this!

[TheZeldaPianist275]

PSA: I will deliver the phase update as promptly as possible, but I'm going to be out in the sticks tonight and it may be a little after 8:00. All night actions must still be finalized by this time!

[therealmathguy]

-No mystery elements. The game is the game, and the seer does not die if he seers the Strange Man, or if the Strange Man guesses his identity.

This and Davy's addition about wolves failing to wolf strange man have changed my mindset on the strange man claim strategy. I think Oricorio's plan to work with the strange man to take a guaranteed wolf and hopefully hit another is an option we should definitely consider later but I think the strange man should stay hidden for now.

On the topic of seer, I think if the seer is lucky enough to find red then that person should come forward with it immediately because it's more likely that person dies before finding a red again.

[Oricorio]

It seems the Strange Man role works a little differently to how I assumed it would. So the Strange Man has a less than 1% chance of getting all three holders via a shot in the dark, but if the holders left hints in the thread it could be higher in practice. I guess the one major source of uncertainty is that since this is an OC game, one of the holders may have already leaked the identities of the lantern holders to the Strange Man for all we know.

[The Musical Poet]

ugh

[Oricorio]

ugh

Do you have any further thoughts? What do you think should be done with regards to the Strange Man?