TWG CXVII: The Lantern Keeper Redux

[The Musical Poet]

What are you talking about, we have over two pages of it!

I must had skimmed over it too much, but I can't find much information to glean, to be specific.

Personally, I don't trust BDS but I have nothing to back it up. Let's just say that he is a little too "clean"

[Oricorio]

I must had skimmed over it too much, but I can't find much information to glean, to be specific.

Personally, I don't trust BDS but I have nothing to back it up. Let's just say that he is a little too "clean"

Mind expanding on that thought?

Plus, do you have any thoughts on XM or A#?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Regarding the BDS/Oricorio debate about the introduction posts and pushing the game forward, I think it's a silly argument. I guess I agree more with BDS, but honestly whatever. It's all moot at this point.

Regarding BDSs hypothesis of Oricorio being the strange man, I could see it, but it's super circumstantial at best right now. Is he playing aggressively to get people to reply and potentially slip up information about having a lantern? Maybe. But I could also see BDS being the strange man, and wanting to stay under the radar for now. By throwing suspicion on Oricorio, the spotlight is shifted away from him, at least temporarily.

Regarding Math's suggestion about the strange man claiming, I don't particularly think the wolves gain a significant advantage from teaming up with the strange man. As Oricorio stated, there's a pretty good chance that a wolf has a lantern right now. The most likely scenario (based on pure odds) is 1 wolf and 2 humans have the lanterns. If the strange man wins overnight, this would kill 2 wolves (one had the lantern, and one red wolf) and 3 humans (two had lanterns, one is wolfed). Reducing the number of wolves down to 1 doesn't seem particularly advantageous for them. And remember, the strange man's guesses are relevant to who started the night with the lanterns, regardless of if the holders try to pass them off. If the wolf with the lantern tries to pass it off, they're still fair game for being killed via the strange man's guess.

Oricorio ran the probabilities and it checks out. The odds seem to favor the town, but I'd rather not take a 25% at losing 3 townspeople; that would be a terrible turn.

I'm in favor of not doing any strange man gambling yet, and seeing if any lantern holders reveal a color. I doubt the seer will come forward with any intel yet.

[The Musical Poet]

Mind expanding on that thought?

Take what I am about to say next with a grain with salt.

BDS has been playing this game for a lot time and got really good. Basically, he's too good. Practically perfect. And that is exactly why I don't trust him. This "perfection" is what got me very suspicious of him last game. And turns out, he happened to be a wolf. I guess I'm still suspicious of him after last round.

[davy]

From a strategy perspective, what do we think about trying to get an early strange man claim?

I think it would be beneficial because:

• the seer can avoid running into him and facing the consequences (I assume seer dies at the hands of strange man)
• the strange man is more valuable to humans since he takes a wolf down guaranteed along with the lantern holders and therefore anyone pushing for his lynch is likely wolf
• can't be wolfed so no harm in claiming if humans don't want him gone
• any fraudulent claims are likely wolf

Is there anything from a wolf perspective that I'm failing to consider that would stop this from being beneficial to humans and strange man alike?

My biggest gripe with the strange man claiming is that it loses the chance of the wolves accidently hitting him, and while that doesn't give us an extra mislynch, it does increase the number of humans during LYLO, and gives humans a last chance of not losing after lylo if the Strange Man happens to guess the Lantern Holders during the night and there are enough wolves among them.

[davy]

TWG Question

TZP, are all the rules of this game explained in the opening post, or is any part of this game a mystery game?

This mostly with regards to math's assumption that the seer dies if they seer them.

[davy]

And on the subject of the seer:

Since only wolves are red in this game, a red seering result is guaranteed to be a wolf. What is everyones thought on the seer claiming when they got a red result? We'd be trading one of the investigative powers (the other being the lanterns) for a guaranteed wolf kill, which considering the number of mislynches we can afford (only one) may be worth it.

On the other hand, keeping the seer hidden may allow them to find the second red player as well. That would imo certainly be the moment to claim for the seer. However, it comes with a greater risk of the seer being wolf'd before they can share any information to the topic.

And since day 2 is going to be LYLO if we don't hit a wolf day one, what are everyones thoughts on the seer claiming day 1 regardless of results?

[Oricorio]

And on the subject of the seer:

Since only wolves are red in this game, a red seering result is guaranteed to be a wolf. What is everyones thought on the seer claiming when they got a red result? We'd be trading one of the investigative powers (the other being the lanterns) for a guaranteed wolf kill, which considering the number of mislynches we can afford (only one) may be worth it.

On the other hand, keeping the seer hidden may allow them to find the second red player as well. That would imo certainly be the moment to claim for the seer. However, it comes with a greater risk of the seer being wolf'd before they can share any information to the topic.

And since day 2 is going to be LYLO if we don't hit a wolf day one, what are everyones thoughts on the seer claiming day 1 regardless of results?

I think we can afford a second mislynch, but only if no players die in the night due to the Strange Man (and a shot in the dark has a 75% chance of offing someone). That's what makes the math difficult.

If we can remove one red wolf, though, that means the Strange Man can guarantee that the other is killed, though that leaves the Master Wolf.

[Oricorio]

I think we can afford a second mislynch, but only if no players die in the night due to the Strange Man (and a shot in the dark has a 75% chance of offing someone). That's what makes the math difficult.

If we can remove one red wolf, though, that means the Strange Man can guarantee that the other is killed, though that leaves the Master Wolf.

Or maybe we can only afford one? These numbers are confusing to me because one I am used to there being only two wolves in a setup this size and two I am used to ITPs not being counted in terms of parity, so forgive me if I get a couple things wrong here

[davy]

If we mislynch day 1, day 2 there will be 7 players: 3 wolves vs 4 non-wolves. Mislynch again and wolves are at parity winning them the game.

If on night 1 or night 2 the Strange Man was hit, day 2 will have 8 players: 3 wolves vs 5 non-wolves. Mislynch again and there are 3 wolves vs 4 non-wolves. On night 3 a human is killed (they won't hit the Strange Man again if he was already wolf'd once) and wolves are at parity again winning them the game before we get another chance at lynching.

[Oricorio]

If we mislynch day 1, day 2 there will be 7 players: 3 wolves vs 4 non-wolves. Mislynch again and wolves are at parity winning them the game.

If on night 1 or night 2 the Strange Man was hit, day 2 will have 8 players: 3 wolves vs 5 non-wolves. Mislynch again and there are 3 wolves vs 4 non-wolves. On night 3 a human is killed (they won't hit the Strange Man again if he was already wolf'd once) and wolves are at parity again winning them the game before we get another chance at lynching.

Of course, that doesn't take into account kills from the Strange Man, which can change things a bit. Today, there's a 75% chance of the Strange Man getting at least one right, and that number could be higher or lower next night depending on if anyone holding the lanterns gets killed. Worst case, the Strange Man kills two townies and the wolves kill another, which would make the first day phase LyLo

[Oricorio]

I suppose that means that one of the benefits of using the Strange Man is it eliminates some of the uncertainty, as at least we would know that a wolf is going down. However, perhaps it is better to wait a day to see if the wolves try to kill the Strange Man.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

My biggest gripe with the strange man claiming is that it loses the chance of the wolves accidently hitting him, and while that doesn't give us an extra mislynch, it does increase the number of humans during LYLO, and gives humans a last chance of not losing after lylo if the Strange Man happens to guess the Lantern Holders during the night and there are enough wolves among them.

That's a good point. Though, having the Strange Man claim during the day would also help us actually try to hit a wolf by narrowing down possible targets ever so slightly. But then again if we seer someone red (either by lantern or seer), we could try lynching the Strange Man anyway. Assuming we do successfully lynch the Strange Man, D2 would be 3 wolves vs. 4 humans (guaranteed wolf lynch because red seering), N3 would be 2 wolves vs. 4 humans, D3 would be 2 wolves vs. 3 humans aaaaand that means we'd have to guarantee lynch a wolf for the last two day phases.

And on the subject of the seer:

Since only wolves are red in this game, a red seering result is guaranteed to be a wolf. What is everyones thought on the seer claiming when they got a red result? We'd be trading one of the investigative powers (the other being the lanterns) for a guaranteed wolf kill, which considering the number of mislynches we can afford (only one) may be worth it.

On the other hand, keeping the seer hidden may allow them to find the second red player as well. That would imo certainly be the moment to claim for the seer. However, it comes with a greater risk of the seer being wolf'd before they can share any information to the topic.

And since day 2 is going to be LYLO if we don't hit a wolf day one, what are everyones thoughts on the seer claiming day 1 regardless of results?

IMO, I think the seer should definitely claim if they got a red result, but stay low if they got a green result and hope for a N2 red seering. I get why seer claiming D1 regardless might be a good idea without cardflips (to avoid the possibility of a wolf false claiming, especially later in the game when things could get dicey), but overall it seems too risky to waste such a valuable role. For all we know, the seer could die N1 and it'd be a moot point anyway. :|

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TWG Question

TZP, are all the rules of this game explained in the opening post, or is any part of this game a mystery game?

This mostly with regards to math's assumption that the seer dies if they seer them.

I'd also like to piggyback off this with an important question: If the Strange Man guesses all the lantern holders correctly, and one of the red wolves is a lantern holder, are both red wolves guaranteed to die, or is there a chance the red wolf lantern holder could essentially "die twice," so to say?

[davy]

But then again if we seer someone red (either by lantern or seer), we could try lynching the Strange Man anyway. Assuming we do successfully lynch the Strange Man, D2 would be 3 wolves vs. 4 humans (guaranteed wolf lynch because red seering), N3 would be 2 wolves vs. 4 humans, D3 would be 2 wolves vs. 3 humans aaaaand that means we'd have to guarantee lynch a wolf for the last two day phases.

Wait what? Am I interpreting this incorrectly or are you suggesting we waste our one mislynch on removing the Strange Man?