TWG CXVI Postgame

[TheZeldaPianist275]

#justice4davy

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I LOVED the davy lynch on D0. He was my Cold Target, so it essentially gave me a free shot on night 1. Plus, it was messy, it painted a ton of the last minute voters as suspect, and it removed a player who was super involved and had great insight. That was a bad lynch imo.

For me, the only other viable lynch to push would've been Xiao, but I realized how bad that would've looked if I lynched my own cold target D0 (whoops). My strategy, assuming davy had been an assassin, was to lynch davy, get one chance at hitting my hot target, push a Xiao lynch D1, and then get a second chance at hitting my hot target the next night (given that I knew Poet was a hot target early on, I feel like I would've been fairly successful with that endeavor).

As I said above, not lynching assassin davy (in a hypothetical where he was actually an assassin) probably would've cost me the game, either by letting him run with his plan (which would basically ensure his ward would never be lynched and let him more easily fish for the hot targets during the day), or by the fact that I feel assassin davy probably would've tried to night kill me early (and I likely would've done the same).


Also, to start off, I tried to play the game as assassin vs. assassin with the town as a tool to help me get rid of the other assassin. Even in a situation where davy wasn't the other assassin I figured I had a strong possibility of being nightkilled either way, so my goal was to try and get the other assassin out of the way as soon as possible and try to clean up from there.

Specs' day play was very strong, and I didn't seriously consider him as an assassin until the last minute where it was basically between him and TZP as the only viable options remaining.

I think the biggest mistake I made was telling TZP that I thought Poet was a hot target, which just made it more difficult for me to get the opportunity to night kill her. My reasoning at the time was that it got me extra human points the longer Poet stayed alive, and that there was a good chance I was overthinking things, but ultimately, having Poet on the table as a potential N1 kill probably would've worked out better for me.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Hmmm. I didn't really see Xiao as a strong D1 candidate, given the tomfoolery that happened in the last few minutes of D0. Math, THC, and A# seemed to have much stronger arguments against them.

As for N2, I'll admit I got greedy and went Assassin hunting rather than going with the Hot Target kill. Hitting your Ward locked my fate, unfortunately.

[SpecsFlyer17]

The more I think about it, not killing Poet on N2 was a huge blunder. I wanted Assassin blood and didn't think ahead haha.

I'm going to partially blame running on about 30 minutes of sleep and 90 calories over a 36 hour period, but I should've seen it.

Regarding killing Xiao, I guess we'll never know if you would've convinced enough people to vote for him on D1. Maybe, but I felt that the late davy voters had a much better chance of being lynched, so I avoided them.

[The Musical Poet]

haha my crappy luck stats were actually helpful for once

[Toby]

That was a good game, I think it might have been slightly human sided. It maybe just needed an extra human or 2 to give the assassins another night-kill but the game was totally winnable for the assassins if any died by the second day.

I felt like I had the game pieced together by night 2, it would have been interesting if both assassins went for separate hot targets but I thought no way someone isn't going to kill TZP as he was obviously the ward

BDS I thought did go for Davy so hard that I didn't think BDS could be the blue assassin. However, BDS is very stubborn anyway so he'd totally act like that if he genuinely thought Davy was the other assassin. Then the couple things BDS announced to topic that I thought would only help the assassins I found strange. Also I thought he had analysed Xiao's nightkill very quickly and very well - calling it a desperation attempt by the wolves- it just felt like he was seeing it in a completely different light than anyone else as if he was already in the assassin mindset. When TZP pm'd both me and BDS, I somewhat felt BDS wasn't that convincing in trying to find the assassin connected to TZP's ward, and the fact that mr.stubborn BDS suddenly dropped all suspicions of me that day when I was his no.1 to go for TZP's plan, and then vote A# I thought was odd. lol !

Specs I thought both last game and this game would definetely be a player to watch out for. His playstyle where he doesn't seem to post too much, but jumps in now and then with a very calm reasonable post. It's hard to gage. TZP's plan to gain votes really made me properly look at Specs as he was really the only player completely avoiding TZP that day. I think remembered he did openly say in topic that TZP's hot target claim could be a ruse against the wolves which I found unhelpful for town. And I thought his PM discussions trying to figure out people's opinions on TZP's claim was odd, but then in topic he had nothing sus to say about TZP.

Poet I figured was human just from how obviously weird they were acting, saying they didn't want to reveal information etc. which Struck me to believe they were a human with information - a hot target

A# similarly was very strange and weird, and a bit too much. Especially when they voted themselves I just figured they were a human.

THC I did find odd for a while and really defensive or just really reading into me. But when I heard they had asked poet to change their vote that struck me as something an assassin surely wouldn't be doing as it would just be too sus

TZP i didn't believe his hot target claim one bit and i very early decided he had to just be a normal human thinking they were a ward and willing to take one for the team. I did vote for them and start a bandwagon on them but it was only to get people's reactions to try find who's ward he was. I meant to change my vote but we were running low on time and I had to sleep. I did wake up and take a glance at the topic and saw votes had changed to A# anyway so I didn't bother changing

[Toby]

#justice4davy

REAL

that was so sad

just because someone raises a plan that you don't agree with doesn't make them a wolf.

I'm going to blame poor timezones on that because neither Davy or myself was around to speak against it

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Then the couple things BDS announced to topic that I thought would only help the assassins I found strange.

At lot of the things I said were specifically with the intent of helping town and misdirecting the other assassin—as I said above, I started out playing the game as assassin vs. assassin with the town as a tool for helping me get rid of the other assassin early (because of the risk I would simply be nightkilled early), so helping keep the town focused and away from distractions was my goal, while simultaneously trying to avoid people (especially THC himself) realizing that THC was my ward. I genuinely didn't realize that my comment about TZP was the issue because I distinctly remembered it being discussed in the thread prior, and felt it was a readily apparent enough take regardless of anyone saying it out loud.

My strategy as a wolf is generally to try and act as genuine as possible (until the critical moments when not doing so is beneficial), so it's likely I would've said a lot of the same things I did as a human—except I likely would've been a lot more suspicious of THC and wouldn't have geared away from my "suspicion" toward him in the later game.

Also I thought he had analysed Xiao's nightkill very quickly and very well - calling it a desperation attempt by the wolves- it just felt like he was seeing it in a completely different light than anyone else as if he was already in the assassin mindset.

Even not from the perspective of the red assassin, I feel it's true that the assassins would want to avoid wasting a nightkill on their cold target unless they felt like they absolutely had to. Aaaaaand, to be fair, I've always had a history of seeing things in a different light than other people, and that's a big part of why I always used to get suspected as a human.

When TZP pm'd both me and BDS, I somewhat felt BDS wasn't that convincing in trying to find the assassin connected to TZP's ward, and the fact that mr.stubborn BDS suddenly dropped all suspicions of me that day when I was his no.1 to go for TZP's plan, and then vote A# I thought was odd. lol !

I started a PM chain with TZP called "Toby-Free Zone" specifically to remind him that you could still be an assassin even with his plan I did genuinely think you had a strong chance at being the blue assassin (I figured you would be one of the few people to nightkill Xiao), but A#'s behavior was so strange (as I said, "first-time wolf syndrome") that it was enough for me to change gears and consider her an a possible assassin with TZP as her ward.

just because someone raises a plan that you don't agree with doesn't make them a wolf.

It wasn't that, it was more so how insistent he was at backing his plan regardless of any evidence to the contrary. With half the game being less experienced players, it would be very easy for an experienced assassin to push a plan that wholly benefited them without enough people realizing it wasn't a good plan. If he hadn't pushed back against my initial response, it's unlikely I would've tried to lynch him.

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP's plan to gain votes really made me properly look at Specs as he was really the only player completely avoiding TZP that day.

I'll be honest, that was more to do with me having to be AFK. I may have said something stupid, but my silence regarding the matter I suppose would have brought up some suspicions.

And that was a one time thing, I'll be wayy more available in future games. I considered not playing tbh, and when I rolled wolf I was little worried I wouldn't be have the time to properly focus. I think it turned out fine, but having some more time to cogitate about the N2 kill may have been nice.

[A# Minor]

"first-time wolf syndrome"

looks like doctor BDS has misdiagnosed me

[BlackDragonSlayer]

looks like doctor BDS has misdiagnosed me

that's why i stayed away from the medical profession

[davy]

My very next post that I would have made if the phase hadn't already ended was "Don't let BDS steamroll the game now." Glad to see that would have been very useful advice this game.

I genuinely thought davy was an assassin (and I stand by the fact that his plan would've played directly into the assassins' hands; letting assassin davy run free with that plan would've been devastating for me. Plus, if davy was an assassin and survived the day, there's a good chance we would've just nightkilled each other the first night ) after he started pushing back so hard against my initial response to his plan, and was surprised when he flipped as the blue cold target.

I really don't get this. Trying to find out some sort of town strategy, and pushing very hard for it is something I do in EVERY game. Granted, I do not always get this much pushback for it, but you disagreeing with a plan and giving it a lot of pushback is also nothing out of the ordinairy. Also, how would my plan allow me to run free but not the other assassin?

As I said above, not lynching assassin davy (in a hypothetical where he was actually an assassin) probably would've cost me the game, either by letting him run with his plan (which would basically ensure his ward would never be lynched and let him more easily fish for the hot targets during the day), or by the fact that I feel assassin davy probably would've tried to night kill me early (and I likely would've done the same).

I think you are severely overestimating my ability to control the lynch. The only way my ward in that scenario wouldn't get lynched is if specifically I redirect the lynch any time it would fall on them, and I would also need to redirect the lynch if it is falling on me (remember, I cannot defend myself in this scenario without looking extremely wolfy), and I need to do both of those subtly enough that no one gets suspicious of me. With three kills before day two at least 3 out of you, Toby, TZP, THC, Specs and Xiao would still be alive, all of whom I deem capable of seeing through such a ruse.

REAL

that was so sad

just because someone raises a plan that you don't agree with doesn't make them a wolf.

I'm going to blame poor timezones on that because neither Davy or myself was around to speak against it

I mean, timezones in TWG here being bad for me is something I've accepted at this point, but I could not really speak against the accusations given against me seeing how I was the one that proposed the plan of not defending yourself and all (plus, I was really hoping that I was a ward).

[davy]

Now for the game's balance: I feel like town had close to a 50% chance of winning, maybe a bit less, but considering both assassins have an equal chance of winning from the remainder the game certainly felt sided against them. Hence my first comment this game.

I don't really see the point of the assassins having wards. Each assassin already instantly loses if they get randomly targeted by the other assassin or if a lynch without much evidence falls on them, but now they have to protect two players in order not to die.

I think the game would have been a lot more balanced if the assassins didn't need to kill each other in order to win the game (and perhaps than have an extra town target each). That way you can avoid the situation that the assassins have to one another to win the game and swinging the momentum back to town. You can even get a bit of assassin cooperation that way, but they still need to win before the other one does.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

...THC ...I deem capable of seeing through such a ruse.

You give me too much credit. I am a sheep and I will blindly follow anyone who promises me wheat. Plus, I am an agent of chaos!

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Miscellaneous thoughts

--THC is a prophet, and Specs hitting BDS's cold target is hilarious

--

--My read on BDS was very human, as Davy's was at the start, almost exclusively on the basis of how combative and stubborn he was being. I'm baffled that you're arguing for the Day 0 plan being a bad one even into the postgame, because losing Math and A# enabled us to force the game into the "ward suicide phase". I realize that there's no chance I'm persuading you of this now, but Davy's plan was a good one, and one that he paid attention to feedback on and modified his opinion of. It's beyond stupid that he got killed in the last five minutes for it...but it's also kinda hilarious that Math was almost completely inactive for 72 hours, but then shows up and successfully leads a bandwagon against the most senior (?) player in the last five minutes of the phase

--Math and Poet, I hope you both stick around for more games! This was a complicated one to get started on, and it seemed like both of you were finding your footing right around the time that you died/the game ended, which is a shame, because I think there was a lot you could have contributed. Stick around for the spookygame and put what you learned to good use!

-I'd enjoy playing another game like this in the future, possibly with some of the changes suggested in this thread, as I think there are some things I'd do differently--the hot target claim really didn't have the impact I was hoping it would have. I agree with the general consensus that the game was probably human-sided, it was way too easy for Toby and me to put the game into the final "claim or die" framing. However, I disagree that Specs was wrong to hit THC instead of Poet. If he had done what BDS is suggesting and claimed assassin in the thread, prompting BDS to reach out to him and try to coordinate, it becomes the easiest thing in the world for one of the assassins to defect, kill the other assassin, and then hope the other assassin follows through and hits a hot target. A slim chance of a win is better than what happened to Specs at the end, I suppose, but no one wants to be a chump, and the game was set up at the end to incentivize the assassins betraying each other.

-Another interesting possible timeline: I really was about a hair away from killing myself rather than A#. In that timeline, I take Specs down with me and I think BDS has a fighting chance at winning. I'd assume he would, in that case, take a shot at Poet since he knew she was a hot target and there wouldn't be the threat of her death helping Specs any more. But she wouldn't help, because she was Specs' hot target, and then the final day phase staredown is A#, BDS, THC, and Toby. Who knows what happens then.

All in all, I really enjoyed this game, despite its relative brevity. Thanks a lot for hosting Kai!