TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Well, it would have been great to see an assassin go down, but I actually don't think this is *that* suboptimal an outcome. The game profile now is very clearly assassin v. assassin, not assassin v. town. I think we have a chance to sweep up the pieces after they take swings at each other tonight.

[Toby]

Yeah the assassins do not want to be killing town tonight or else they'll lose. They need to  hit the other assassin before they get hit

Interestingly it's very likely they could kill each other tonight. But if they try to go after their hot target it'll be a waste of a kill because hot targets can just get taken out when the game comes to a 1v1 assassin Vs hot target

Reason I'm fine saying any of the above is because optimal assassin play actually helps the town right now because we are only the 2nd biggest threat. The 1st being their other assassin. If only 2 townies die tonight we probs lose, but equally it leaves both assassins in super tight spots to win over the other

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I have a PM chain to share. It's long. Sorry, but I think it's important.

Now, to bury the hatchet with you two: I think there is a high probability im actually a ward, in part because it's strange to me that NO one has pushed for my lynch. I feel like the hot target claim worked a bit too well. Here is my proposal, and I am open to suggestions for how best to do it: I start acting batshit crazy in the thread, and you two lead a full-court press for my lynch. What say you both to that?

What are your plans for acting "batshit crazy"? It has to look believable overall (especially because, as you said, nobody has been pushing for your lynch at all). I think there's potential merit to the idea of seeing who (if anyone) suddenly jumps to your defense if you start getting votes on you, but if it's too clear that it's a ploy I don't think it'll end up working out and would just end up being a needless distraction.

That's part of what I'm asking you guys. Any suggestions?

...you could go unnecessarily hard after Specs? There's always the chance we could go for the ol' "TZP's been acting weird in PMs" response (but then again that would likely make sense to be me OR Toby, but not both of us), but in that case it's easier to call that bluff.

I'll wait to hear from Toby but I think something like this isn't a bad idea. Thanks BDS. If we decide to do this, let's try to start in the next several hours so we have time to receive and gauge reactions.

Hey sorry I'm out tonight but yeah I think everyone thinks you're human at moment so it would be interesting how people reacted if you were caught in a lie or slipped in a way that we had no choice but to vote you

So, idea:
1. TZP goes after Specs (maybe even voting for Specs), finding it weird that Specs was trying to figure out his hot target claim.
2. I respond, saying that it's weird that TZP has been coasting all game off his claim, and I feel like he's been using it as an opportunity to avoid suspicion.
3a. I potentially PM someone else and tell them I'm gonna put a "pressure vote" on TZP and ask them to back me up (suggesting this because I feel like it wouldn't make sense for me and Toby to be in agreement publicly).
OR
3b. After I express my "suspicion" against TZP (potentially also placing a vote), he suddenly flips around and votes for me (this has to be at a time when all three of us are around at the same time). Toby comes in and votes for TZP as a response.
4. We see how other people respond with two votes on TZP.

? ? ? ? ?

Is that believable I dunno I expect more of a scandal may be required for it to look like TZP is under pressure

If he can get 3 votes though would probably work regardless of the reasoning

THC PM'd me a little while ago, and I get the feeling he might be interested in placing a vote on TZP. After he responds to me I might try and suggest he place a pressure vote on TZP with my backing.

Okay I'm going to sleep but I can place a vote early tomorrow if it sounds convincing enough and we can see what happens

Sounds good. Full steam ahead.

I've went for another angle so I could lock my vote in as I'll be busy with work for the next 9 hours

Since TZPs hot target claim seems to have been dissected and multiple people have now said it could be false in topic I've used that but I've at least ended it in a question so if someone was looking to defend you they have an angle to take

What's the chances both you two are assassins and this is a waste of time :^)

mexican standoff but one person only has finger guns

I'll try to justify my vote in the thread, sort of a "I'm not sure how I feel agreeing with Toby, but after tunneling davy D0 I feel TZP deserves closer analysis."

Bds are u able to get anyone else to vote ? It doesn't really work unless TZP gets a majority and is in danger

At moment I think A# seems very unbothered

I think Specs is honestly a strong assassin candidate with you being his ward. That would explain why he was openly saying that he thinks you're human for your hot target claim and wasn't afraid that what he was saying could give up ur attempt to deceive the wolves

Also explain why he was interested in getting peoples feelings on your claim in PM maybe to try push that you were human

Maybe THC? It's hard to tell. His latest message to me made it seems like he might be genuinely interested in voting TZP, but it's hard to tell with him.

Personally, I think A#'s making a big bluff. I think she's aware how many people have given some indication of being likely to vote for her, and her attempt to get on board the Toby suspicion train already backfired on her—and I don't think she has enough fight in her to try and candidly suggest another target herself. After her self-vote, I kinda wanna try voting for her and seeing if she cracks (though we really do need to know what's going on with the insta mechanics before I try that stunt).

 I still think Specs is reeling from being so thoroughly manipulated by TZP last game, but assassin Specs is something I've been considering too. I don't think it's likely though; he did seem fairly unbothered (to borrow your terminology) at TZP casually just having two votes on him all of a sudden.

Toby, Kai just messaged me and told me insta is off for this game. You can safely vote me without getting rushed. Can you please reapply your vote to make it more convincing?

Kai can you confirm in topic if insta is off ?

The only player I think to be defending TZP is Specs

I just checked the PM I got from him day 0 and I am thrown off a little bit because it seems like he thinks TZP could be assassin. But it could be his way of trying to distance himself, it's risky though

He's suggesting TZP could be assassin, but in topic he doesn't seem to shed any bad light on TZP

I'm going to set my alarm I think for an hour before phase end to change my vote

I think I might go for A#, unless something else happens

She's not been useful at all and very chaotic which I am inclined to read as human, but could be an angsty assassin. At least if she's a human could be a ward. Don't see her being a hot target at all.

I still feel "first time wolf in over her head." This latest move from her, IMO, feels like she's finally starting to catch on to how to play as a wolf but hasn't quite got the execution down yet. In other words, she sees other people trying similar gambits and is going for a gambit to try and prove "see, I'm ok with being lynched, so I'm totally not a wolf!"

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Now, why bring this up? Well, first, to give people an opportunity to see how Toby and BDS talk about other variables in private. More than that, though, this should demonstrate beyond reasonable doubt that I am a regular human, and with A#'s death, it's a guarantee that I'm actually a ward. I was 100% prepared to go down with the ship last night, and only didn't change my vote to myself on a whim because I enjoy surviving to play this game and I had no reason to believe I would have any more chance of being a ward than A# did. But all good things must come to an end!

To whichever assassin had my name in your role PM: great job, thanks for playing, you stayed under the radar, and you have nads of brass for not panicking when I had nearly half the lobby voting for me. But you lost. Other assassin, if you think you know who your opposing assassin is, by all means take a shot in the dark and let me keep playing, but if you send in my name to be killed tonight, it's a guarantee that you're hitting the other assassin.

Both assassins are in a defect-defect prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, which is to say that it is a strictly dominant strategy for each one to try to hit the other assassin. Feel free to take a shot at your hot target, but know that your opponent is probably taking a shot at you. Your best hope is to kill the other assassin and hope that he kills your hot target while trying to nail you. That's the only way for you to win.

Humans, if that doesn't happen, we either win tonight, or we have a manhunt with two potential options tomorrow. I like those odds.

[Toby]

I feel like we should all just claim

assassins need to kill eachother if they want to win. They just got to hope while they kill their opponent their opponent wiffs somehow

I'm the red hot target, so not a ward or an assassin so dont waste your kill on me lol.

I actually don't even know the point of hot targets really other than being a unique human name, because the assassin needs to be alive to win the game anyway and they can always kill their hot target in a final stand

Feel like everyone should claim at this point, if you're human makes sense one ward is already revealed which guarantees one assassin dead so other ward reveal yourself and give the other assassin a  fair shot of winning too

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Honestly, I'm not even sure what to expect at this point. I don't think claiming is all that great an idea, but I'll bite anyway. I'm a ward.

[Toby]

ok well as it stands one assassin needs to kill TZP and the other killl THC

And I guess they just hope that the other assassin is poet or something and forgets to send in their action

[The Musical Poet]

alright since there isn't really a reason not to do so now


I'm just going to send the logs

me:

I am a hot target. If you really are a hot target, you should know how to respond to this.

Yeah, I figured you were at this point. Out of curiosity, who else have you told this?

Anyway, there is an operation going on in the main thread. I am not actually a hot target, I got the normal human role--in fact, I think there is a very high chance that I am a ward. Right now, I have conspired with Toby and BDS to cast votes on me in the main thread to see who holds out on voting for me. If anyone seems uncomfortable about the fact that people want me dead, there's a high probability that player is my corresponding assassin. So if you want to contribute to this and make it even more convincing, you could change your vote to me in the main thread and say something like "actually now that I think about it TZP is really suspicious". I think that's the best chance we have at catching an assassin this day phase, because if I am actually a ward, someone is going to get very uncomfortable when he or she sees 3 votes on me.

Thoughts?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Hey y'all, Im back. Gonna catch up on the last two days

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Apologize for my absence; I've been spending most of the day moving boxes from one storage unit to another. I've been keeping up with the thread in the meantime, but haven't had the opportunity to post until now.

I'm claiming normal human, which means one of either TZP or THC is lying.

Worth noting is that I picked up on the fact that Poet slipped hot target D0. I told davy about my hunch because he asked (I fully intended to push his lynch, which ended up happening, and figured it would give assassin davy pause on pushing a Poet lynch if he thought it would be risky for him; plus, if he was an assassin and survived the day, he couldn't kill Poet without me knowing for sure it was him responsible) and TZP after he voted for Poet (which also means that assassin TZP could also not risk killing Poet as it would likely point back to him). I told TZP that I had told davy, which was extra insurance in case davy was an assassin and survived the day. Poet claiming to THC and apparently also TZP confirms my early hunch.

TZP's recent shenanigans seem to point in favor of him being the one who's telling the truth, but on the other hand:

nads of brass

TZP sort of unintentionally put himself in a situation he couldn't control because Toby was offline after he made his vote and couldn't change it. I think he was relying on THC not voting for him, as I had told THC/Toby (as seen in the PM thread TZP posted) that it was uncertain THC would actually vote for TZP. There was always the chance that A# could have suddenly swapped off herself and onto a TZP vote, but TZP couldn't control that—and panicking about it would definitely set off the alarms, so his only hope would be that A# actually followed through with her threat to lynch herself (which did end up happening)

I fully believe his intention was to not make the situation so risky for himself, but IRL schedules worked against him.

Points against THC, on the other hand: he's been riding the "I'm probably a ward" train since he first showed up in the game, originally with his PM to me straight-up asking me if I was an assassin and he was my ward. It feels really unlikely and suspicious that he'd actually end up being a ward, and the fact that he's been pushing it so much since then just makes it even weirder. Also acting generally weird and suspicious.

Also worth noting is I don't think Specs has been online since before the phase change, meaning that if he's an assassin, he probably hasn't submitted a kill yet. I think Specs is pretty much confirmed as an assassin at this point, unless Toby is also lying and banking on the fact that there's a good chance Specs could just not come online before the end of the phase. Regardless of what role Specs is, him coming to the thread and claiming is likely to clear thing up to... some degree.


ninja'd
Specs is here, but not gonna modify what I already wrote before posting for posterity's sake.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

as I had told TZP/Toby (as seen in the PM thread TZP posted) that it was uncertain THC would actually vote for TZP.

Fixed. The PM chain was with TZP/Toby (and I also had an independent one free of Toby just in case Toby was an assassin, and to convey info I had already told TZP but not Toby). THC was not involved in group PM.

[The Musical Poet]

Worth noting is that I picked up on the fact that Poet slipped hot target D0. I told davy about my hunch because he asked (I fully intended to push his lynch, which ended up happening, and figured it would give assassin davy pause on pushing a Poet lynch if he thought it would be risky for him; plus, if he was an assassin and survived the day, he couldn't kill Poet without me knowing for sure it was him responsible) and TZP after he voted for Poet (which also means that assassin TZP could also not risk killing Poet as it would likely point back to him). I told TZP that I had told davy, which was extra insurance in case davy was an assassin and survived the day. Poet claiming to THC and apparently also TZP confirms my early hunch.

bruh I've been played better than a fiddle

[BlackDragonSlayer]

bruh I've been played better than a fiddle

My logic was this post and the fact that the one human role that could potentially leak info would be a hot target—I had faith that if you were an assassin, you would be much more careful to not say that out loud

[The Musical Poet]

My logic was this post and the fact that the one human role that could potentially leak info would be a hot target—I had faith that if you were an assassin, you would be much more careful to not say that out loud

my fault for being careless :>

[BlackDragonSlayer]

It's been two hours since Specs showed up in the thread. Less than 2 hours until the end of the phase... will we hear from Specs before the end of the phase?? The world may never know.