TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

no control over the lynch

This is not what I said. I said no control over the outcome. As in the outcome of the random selection between the two. Even if it's more control than random selection of all players, it's still less control than we should have in this.

I don't really follow this reasoning still or know what 'assassins objectively have a lot more info' has to do with it

It has everything to do with it. The only town players with any info are the hot targets. Everyone else has nothing they know to be 100% true. Yet each assassin knows three people's roles: their ward, their cold target, and themselves. That makes it almost a 50% chance they will kill one of the roles they want dead and don't know which player they are. We are in a very tight spot in town and letting random chance dictate any aspect of the game, even if small, is a bad idea. We need as much control of the situation as we can get.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

We need as much control of the situation as we can get.

So in your mind, choosing to lynch someone you think is human is preferable to having a KitB between someone you think is a human and someone you think is an assassin?

That doesn't make any sense! The thing that wins the game isn't controlling lynches, it's lynching assassins. Town should care about controlling the lynch BECAUSE it lets you lynch an assassin, not as an end in itself.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Dang, a lot of activity today.

Math's behavior at the end of D0 is a bit concerning to me. While he didn't seem to put much of a fight during most of the day having a lead, he still had control of the situation going into the final minutes. He was able to switch his vote to davy at the last minute to force a KitB at the very least.

I get self-preservation interests (it's no fun getting lynched), but that seemed a little too opportunistic given the situation. BDS unintentionally threw you a life-line with the "change a vote to davy and avoid the KitB" and he jumped on it immediately.

For someone who claimed to support davy's "humans shouldn't defend themselves, in order to draw out the Assassin", this whole situation feels oddly contradictory.

And for the record, there wasn't a KitB situation until Math changed his vote.

[SpecsFlyer17]

As far as this N1 phase, as unfortunate as it is to have two Assassins out there, there are some bright spots.

The Blue Assassin will likely be taking a shot in the dark, as their Cold Target is gone. This means they may hit the Red Ward or Red Assassin, which I think is simultaneously good for both the town and Blue Assassin. Yes, it advances their win condition, but they'll still have to uncover their Hot Target. It will then be a race between the town lynching the Blue Assassin or the Blue Ward, and the Blue Assassin killing/lynching the Blue Hot Target. I don't think that is a terrible place to be in, as each night will only have 1 killing, opposed to 2.

Regardless of what happens, I think getting the night killings down to 1 is key. That can come in the form of a correct D1 lynch, or a N1 Assassin killing their counterpart (directly or via the Ward).

We'll also get a lot of information tonight with a double card flip, which may render some of today's finger-pointing moot.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Regarding A#, I'm suspicious.

We've already talked about her last minute davy vote. Part of me feels like "Avoid the KitB!!!" was a cover for jumping on the davy train, e.i. killing a Cold Target.

um


davy ig

don't kill me for this

"don't kill me for this" feels like a poor thing to say, masking more malicious intentions.

Also, I don't have any direct quotes for this, but I feel like her gameplay thus far has been a lot of reacting to neutral things, rather than actually discussing pro-town strategies. Sorta like a need to contribute enough to not look sus; but also afraid to accidently spill something, resulting in few posts with town-heavy substance. It's just a vibe I have, so I don't want to sound too accusatory with that, however.

[SpecsFlyer17]

davy: I'm very neutral on you right now. BDS seems very convinced you're an assassin from what I skimmed, but I could see it going either way. The way I'll put it is that I likely won't vote for you, but I won't be upset if you get lynched either.

math: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you've only made three or four posts so far, right? And one of them was to vote and another was just to agree with someone else's rationale. I think you might be at number two for me right now. I've got my eye on you.

Now for THC. His vote was the one that changed a davy/Math KitB to a davy-only lynch.
Why did he do that?
He was more suspicious of Math (suspicious) than davy (neutral). Why change it from a 50% chance of lynching his suspicious candidate to a 0%, especially if he was neutral on davy. Seems like an odd move when he didn't appear to really have skin in that game.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I RETURN, minus one toe nail.

BDS unintentionally threw you a life-line with the "change a vote to davy and avoid the KitB" and he jumped on it immediately.

...unintentionally?


I'm working on a revised suspicion list. Probably gonna keep it brief and mostly talk about changes since last time.

[A# Minor]

nice

Regarding A#, I'm suspicious.

...

"don't kill me for this" feels like a poor thing to say, masking more malicious intentions.

that was a questionable thought that I decided to write down for some reason

Also, I don't have any direct quotes for this, but I feel like her gameplay thus far has been a lot of reacting to neutral things, rather than actually discussing pro-town strategies. Sorta like a need to contribute enough to not look sus; but also afraid to accidently spill something, resulting in few posts with town-heavy substance. It's just a vibe I have, so I don't want to sound too accusatory with that, however.

I kinda feel the same way about myself    I'm trying to grasp what you guys are saying, but I'm too confused for strategies...


welp, time to go back and reread the last two pages that I missed

[SpecsFlyer17]

I RETURN, minus one toe nail.
...unintentionally?


I'm working on a revised suspicion list. Probably gonna keep it brief and mostly talk about changes since last time.

Ouch, sorry about that!

Well maybe not unintentionally, since you did want davy lynched. Regardless, Math saw the opportunity and took it.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

A quick rundown on adjustments to my D0 suspicion list:

WOLF LEAN:
- Toby: Perhaps to my own detriment, I still can't shake the "one of Toby or davy is an assassin" idea I had prior (and we know how davy flipped). I was originally going to put Toby in the "slight wolf lean" category despite this (from the cardflip and his involvement, or lack thereof, in the davy lynch, it seems likely he isn't the blue assassin, at least), until today's incident regarding my opinions on THC. I've had PM correspondence with Toby and another player (they can reveal who they are, if they so choose) about why Toby was irked by this and it just makes me feel much worse about Toby, especially with how he went about responding to the situation.
- Xiao: Aside from the possibility of being the blue assassin who hopped on the davy lynch early as a longshot play, additions have been the way Xiao jumped on the A# suspicion, and the way Xiao reacted to my take about THC.
- A# Minor: Weird behavior toward end of last phase + this phase, sudden jump on davy vote, still feel like first-time-wolf syndrome kicking in to full effect.

Slight Wolf Lean:
- ThatHiddenCharacter: Been acting weird for most of the game, and when I brought up that I didn't feel he was making optimal town plays, he doubled down on it.
- therealmathguy: Was a potential lynch for last phase, acted in self-preservation in a weird way. Possible newbie mistake, but I don't get good vibes.

Neutral:
- The Musical Poet: Thoughts haven't changed much. Has mostly been inactive since the end of last phase.

Town Lean:
- TheZeldaPianist275: Thoughts haven't changed much.
- SpecsFlyer17: Thoughts haven't changed much. Recent contributions seem good.

Me Tier:
- BlackDragonSlayer: it's still me, if that changes i'll be s h o c k e d


I could see Toby red assassin / Xiao or A# blue assassin at this point.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

So in your mind, choosing to lynch someone you think is human is preferable to having a KitB between someone you think is a human and someone you think is an assassin?

I never claimed to think davy was a human. I said I could him going either way.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

- ThatHiddenCharacter: Been acting weird for most of the game, and when I brought up that I didn't feel he was making optimal town plays, he doubled down on it.

This is literally how I've always played, regardless of my role. Maybe my rationale doesn't make much sense to everyone else, but it makes sense to me.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

This is literally how I've always played, regardless of my role. Maybe my rationale doesn't make much sense to everyone else, but it makes sense to me.

...hm. Well, to be fair, you hosted the first revival game and died N1 in my game, so I can't say I've seen examples of your recent play. I can only speak to how I'd react to your play from any generic player.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

...hm. Well, to be fair, you hosted the first revival game and died N1 in my game, so I can't say I've seen examples of your recent play. I can only speak to how I'd react to your play from any generic player.

I suppose it has been awhile since we've played together.

[The Musical Poet]

Neutral:
- The Musical Poet: Thoughts haven't changed much. Has mostly been inactive since the end of last phase.

Sorry about this, it was a mistake to join the TWG. I have little time on my hands, as well as my extreme ignorance of how TWG works. I will however try my best to be active.