TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[A# Minor]

Considering that the forum alerts you when someone else has made a post in the same thread, I have my doubts. This is the second time you've used the "I didn't see someone's vote" excuse. The first time was somewhat believable, but this time, not so much.

I know. I was in a hurry and... I basically ignored the notification

There's also the fact that you had the opportunity to change your vote at least 5+ minutes in advance and didn't until the very last moment.

actually, math voted at 11:57, and I was only gonna change my vote because of that, so I took a minute or two to decide what to do. when was that opportunity that you're talking about?


ninja'd

Even if you genuinely didn't see THC's post, I feel there was a good reason you waited until the literal last minute (nay, last seconds!!!) to vote—perhaps looking to use the excuse of how you were under sudden pressure and just spontaneously changed your vote to try and avoid a KitB.

I can't think of stuff like that at midnight

[XiaoMigros]

it did an emoji i wanted to do ???

[XiaoMigros]

THC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

So why are you calling this out then? How is that in the towns interest

[therealmathguy]

Math voted to save himself which is fair, but as Davy mentioned he agreed with humans letting themselves die which contradicts. Before I start to reason his action id like math guy to give reason to that himself ?

I'm trying to sniff out the wards. Like I said, my mindset has changed in how I view ward play now. You can choose to believe that or not but considering I didn't get much support until the very end of the phase, I figured I might not be a ward. So therefore I don't want a guaranteed townie going down.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I like to come to my own conclusions and not mindlessly tag on to the group

And yet that's exactly what you did; the only difference is that you didn't openly call attention to it.

I know. I was in a hurry and... I basically ignored the notification

...

actually, math voted at 11:57, and I was only gonna change my vote because of that, so I took a minute or two to decide what to do. when was that opportunity that you're talking about?

You were present in the thread well beforehand, during the 5+ minute timeframe I mentioned.

You using Math changing his vote as a reason to change your own vote rubs me the wrong way. Were you actually hoping to lynch someone you thought was suspicious, or just going with the flow and hoping you blended in and looked helpful/human?

it did an emoji i wanted to do

forums

really disappointing when you wanna put like 8 questions marks at the end of a sentence and it goes like ??

So why are you calling this out then? How is that in the towns interest

What do you mean? I'm not sure what you're trying to say. What isn't in the town's interest?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

but I applied similar logic to davy ("an experienced player like davy wouldn't be suggesting such an glaringly obviously terrible plan unless he had something to gain from it") and we saw how that worked out. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Davy's plan was not glaringly, obviously terrible. It wasn't even a little terrible. I am baffled by why anyone found him suspicious because of it. Five of you voted for him and not all five of you are assassins. That was an awful lynch.

Ninja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

[Toby]

I tried getting people to vote for davy earlier in the phase so we could avoid the exact situation that happened. Several hours before the end of the phase I tried to get people to change their votes to davy by pushing against the mathguy lynch. I returned to the thread roughly an hour before phase end and tried to get people to change their votes to davy to avoid a KitB or last-minute vote change. People did not change their votes until right before the end of the phase, and TWGers are infamous for doing.

I went after someone whose behavior I thought indicated an assassin who made a bold gambit early (not expecting nearly as much pushback as he ended up getting), and when put up against I lynch I thought was objectively worse, I continued to advocate for my suspicions.

Say what you will, but I'm consistent.
I don't have a numerical breakdown, but IIRC most of the times I was lynched early, I was human. But by virtue of gradually becoming the most veteran player around, me being killed N1 became even more likely of a probability.
Your initial reaction is fair, and I don't hold it against you.

Yeah I fully agree you often got lynched early as a human, in fact if I remember right as a wolf you survived a lot better lol. But I do remember feeling like I just had to refuse to find you suspicious by default because you're personality of over explaining and saying sometimes the obvious came across sus to me but it was just you lol

One question tho, you said you thought voting math guy was objectively worse, can you expand on that? Why ?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Ninja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

@BDS to be clear

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm trying to sniff out the wards. Like I said, my mindset has changed in how I view ward play now. You can choose to believe that or not but considering I didn't get much support until the very end of the phase, I figured I might not be a ward. So therefore I don't want a guaranteed townie going down.

Considering there were two votes on davy for most of the phase, you did have some degree of support in an opposition lynch. You changed your vote to Toby for some reason immediately after I suggested a (openly crazy) theory about Toby being an assassin with davy as his ward and only change it significantly later. The whole vote rush at the end could've potentially been avoided had you voted for davy initially instead of Toby.

[Toby]

THC's behavior is glaringly suspicious, there's no doubt about that, but my worry is that he's acting too obviously suspicious. He's unapologetically going full throttle down the route of "I'm doing suspicious stuff and I know the stuff I'm doing is suspicious" that I can't help but feel he's deliberately trying to get himself lynched—maybe he's doing what TZP is doing and intentionally trying to make himself a target because he knows he isn't a hot target (and given his strange behavior toward me in PMs, maybe he's hoping he's actually a ward), or maybe he's doing crazy reverse psychology as an assassin to try and get the other assassin to avoid night killing him and avoid lynching by just confusing the hell out of everybody.

Regardless, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

I have to say I don't agree with this take at all. And again I feel like you've suggested things humans could be doing to throw the assassin off. And the announcement of that only benefits assassins and hurts humans, especially during night phase

[A# Minor]

You were present in the thread well beforehand, during the 5+ minute timeframe I mentioned.

You using Math changing his vote as a reason to change your own vote rubs me the wrong way. Were you actually hoping to lynch someone you thought was suspicious, or just going with the flow and hoping you blended in and looked helpful/human?

as I said earlier, I wasn't really suspicious of anybody (or not suspicious enough to vote them), so I was just trying to stop a kitb from happening. so kinda going with the flow, but not necessarily trying to blend in


also, if I changed my vote to anyone else, davy would've been lynched anyway

[Toby]

Why two multiple people now said they changed their vote from math to vote for Davy to avoid a kitB

If your main suspicion is math and thats your vote and it could be a kitB between math and Davy, why would you change your vote to Davy when the KitB could land on math dying ?? A kitB isn't a bad thing if it's the only chance you have of your vote being lynched ??

A# are you just copying THCs logic for his vote switch

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Davy's plan was not glaringly, obviously terrible. It wasn't even a little terrible. I am baffled by why anyone found him suspicious because of it. Five of you voted for him and not all five of you are assassins. That was an awful lynch.

I firmly maintain that it was, for the plethora of reasons I brought forth throughout the phase. And the fact that davy went so strongly to support it (needlessly so!!!) made it feel like he was either trying to double down on winning people over because backing down would look suspicious, or intentionally trying to distract from other discussion.

Ninja'd by Xiao—why would you cast doubt on THC's behavior publicly?

Why would I not? It's information we need to consider.

One question tho, you said you thought voting math guy was objectively worse, can you expand on that? Why ?

I already answered that when responding to your initial mathguy vote, for example.

I have to say I don't agree with this take at all. And again I feel like you've suggested things humans could be doing to throw the assassin off. And the announcement of that only benefits assassins and hurts humans, especially during night phase

I disagree. I think not saying it hurts town and favors the assassins. Saying it allows town better analysis for lynch target but doesn't provide assassins with better analysis for nightkill target.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I disagree. I think not saying it hurts town and favors the assassins. Saying it allows town better analysis for lynch target but doesn't provide assassins with better analysis for nightkill target.

To fully clarify, THC's behavior is very unlikely to make him a nightkill target, even if he is intentionally trying to make himself a target. Saying what I said doesn't change anything about that.

Meanwhile, if THC is a yolo townie trying to get himself lynched on the off-chance he's a ward (which his prior behavior indicates is a real possibility), saying that gives potential pause to town for going after THC instead of a better lynch target.

As I said, if THC is town, I don't think he's doing optimal town play.

[A# Minor]

Why two multiple people now said they changed their vote from math to vote for Davy to avoid a kitB

If your main suspicion is math and thats your vote and it could be a kitB between math and Davy, why would you change your vote to Davy when the KitB could land on math dying ?? A kitB isn't a bad thing if it's the only chance you have of your vote being lynched ??

A# are you just copying THCs logic for his vote switch

actually, no, I said this before he even arrived


also don't forget that my vote for math was a safety (I was OK with it before I noticed someone else voted for him)