TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[The Musical Poet]

This sucks. I will be gone for 5 hours. :> Sorry for the inconvenience.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Jesus christ, I missed a ton. I didn't go on NSM yesterday, and I've slept all day today after work. I have a few things I want to respond to, but I'm on mobile, so I'll be doing it in separate posts.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

VOTECOUNT 0.1

BlackDragonSlayer – (0/6) – XiaoMigros
davy – (1/6) – XiaoMigros
SpecsFlyer17 – (1/6) – threalmathguy

I may have accidentally PM'd this votecount to someone – apologies if so!

Firstly, can we please not do the rainbow? I can't really read the text.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

To sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1. I honestly think claiming hot target isn't a good idea. Cause regardless of if someone is in the corner or not, a wolf would (at this point now that it's out there) fully be able to claim it at any point. That's why I don't think TZP is fully clear like (I think it was) Davy said. I could absolutely see assassin!TZP claiming hot target now to seem less suspicious.

2. I don't even understand why this is an argument. I am 100% with BDS on this one. The "benefits" of no defending do not outway the negatives. Both a regular town kill and a cold target kill would negatively impact town, even if not as badly as a hot target kill. Both decrease the pool for either one or both assassins, so they have an easier time finding their other targets.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

That being said, I want to avoid lending to an insta or a kitb this early on, so I will not yet be voting. I don't feel that strongly about anyone without any votes on them currently, and anyone else would either widen the current kitb or make it easier for someone to cause an insta. I am suspicious of Xiao right now for voting so quickly and then quickly changing their vote without much persuasion. I won't speak to the general lack of explanation since that seems to be normal for them.

Also, now that I know the game has started, I should be more active. Sorry for being absent.

[A# Minor]

Sorry for being absent.

i hope you enjoyed your breakfast

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I could absolutely see assassin!TZP claiming hot target now to seem less suspicious.

...I could potentially see wolf TZP deliberately making a completely 360 move from his usual wolf tactics as a deliberate attempt to throw people off his scent, but IMO, with a second assassin running around I'm not sure he would want to needlessly risk attracting their attention.

[SpecsFlyer17]

With two Assassins in play, I see TZPs claim being more of a human taking one for the team. If the Assassin bites off, no harm done, as killing a regular human isn't super advantageous. If the Assassins don't take the bait, there's not really any changes to the game overall. We'll see how that claim works in the mid/endgame, but I think it was a good earlygame town decision.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Wait so just so I'm on the same page....

If someone gets more than 50% of the votes in the next 5 hours, the phase ends in 5 hours.
If someone doesn't get those votes, the phase ends in 29 hours?

Would this be a 72hr phase then?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I... guess so??

[A# Minor]

 

[therealmathguy]

I'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm down for the strategy of townies taking one for the team, drawing attention to anyone defending themselves or pushing for an alternate lynch.

That being said, I'm also a bit sus on TZP claiming hot target immediately. It seems like the outcomes hurt the town more than they help. It could be a gamble for ward, but the odds are against us on that. And even if he's telling the truth, surely one of the assassins will try to call his bluff at some point.

I've seen some of your opinions on this, what does everyone else think?

Right now my stance on TZP is "wait and see."

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I do generally see him as more human than not, though. With him being wolf for the past two games, I don't think he would do something like that as a wolf this game. Feels needlessly risky.

[SpecsFlyer17]

We get a lot of information after a phase in this game. After night 1, we'll have a decent idea of the situation because of the card flips. Still waiting to hear back if the card flips include color or not btw. For now, I think TZPs play leans town with two Assassins still on the loose.