TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[A# Minor]

tbh I don't entirely agree with either of yalls logic, but I still think regular townies not defending themselves is the optimal strategy.
Regular townies don't know if they are a ward, their death has a significant chance of being helpful

(this is just a random quote for a point of reference lol)


but then there are the cold targets, who also don't know their exact role. we could try to lynch them, and with this strategy, they'll be unable to defend themselves. the wolf assassin would be real happy about that...

[A# Minor]

safety on specs in case I don't get back to this

[A# Minor]

messed up there


safety on therealmathguy

[Toby]

so a regular townie letting themselves die has a 2/6 (1/3) chance of taking a wolf down with them.

Alternatively there's a 4/10 (2/5, 1/2.5) chance of a wolf being lynched if we just play normally. If we try lynch someone and they claim hot target there's a 2/4 (1/2) chance they could be a wolf false claiming.

if my odds are right then putting a focus on normal townies isn't optimal at this stage in the game

[XiaoMigros]

I don't follow the 2/4 part

[A# Minor]

I don't follow the 2/4 part

why not? it makes sense to me

[SpecsFlyer17]

Hard to throw around legitimate suspicion this early in the game. Here's what I think before I reread everything again in detail and vote tonight:

THC, mathguy: would definitely like to hear more from you two. Right now, nothing contributed to the town strategy.

Poet, A#: Some good conversation about the game, but not a ton of town strategy discussed. Not necessarily Assassin lean, but definitely not town lean.

davy, BDS: I honestly read your earlier massive conversation in good faith- I know there were some disagreements but it seemed like legitimate strategy discussions and nothing really screamed sus to me. Definitely points for discussing town strategy. Town lean.

TZP: Claiming Hot Target seemed like a self-preservation move to me. We more or less agreed to not lynch the Hot Target, and not claiming color puts the Assassins with a gamble. This feels like a slight town-lean play, and combined with good strategy discussion makes me lean town for him.

Xiao: The swap from BDS to davy immediately after BDS defended himself looked sus, but it is circumstantial evidence, especially this early in the game. Nothing really leans either way for me other than that.

Toby: Came to defense pretty quickly after getting a vote, which is understandable. Good discussion on the probability strategy earlier today.

Generic, right? Yeah, hard to say a lot on Day 1 with a day phase starting game. idk.

I'll reread everything this afternoon and vote again tonight. I'll probably post some updated suspicions as well.

[Toby]

I don't follow the 2/4 part

The only people who would claim hot target would be either the 2 hot targets or the 2 assassins as an attempt to not be lynched

[davy]

My top two suspicions are still Toby and Xiao, so I feel comfortable leaving my vote where it is for now.

I'd like to see everyone vote (or state their intend to vote if insta's are getting close) someone today so that we'll have another day to hopefully come to a consensus.

Because what I'd really like to avoid is a last minute mass vote change to kill someone. That is already bad in a normal TWG, but especially bad now because an assassin could use such a thing to change a lynch away from a ward.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

so a regular townie letting themselves die has a 2/6 (1/3) chance of taking a wolf down with them.

Alternatively there's a 4/10 (2/5, 1/2.5) chance of a wolf being lynched if we just play normally. If we try lynch someone and they claim hot target there's a 2/4 (1/2) chance they could be a wolf false claiming.

if my odds are right then putting a focus on normal townies isn't optimal at this stage in the game

To explain things out clearly for people who might be confused where Toby is getting these numbers from:
- 2/6 because 10 (players) - 2 (assassins) - 2 (hot targets) = 6 (people who think they're normal townies), 2 wards, so 2/6 chance
- 4/10 chance of a wolf being lynched normally because there are 10 players and there are 4 potential targets that would result in a wolf dying (2 wards, 2 assassins themselves)

Thank you for spelling these probabilities out. I feel it's helpful to have.

I'd like to see everyone vote (or state their intend to vote if insta's are getting close) someone today so that we'll have another day to hopefully come to a consensus.

Because what I'd really like to avoid is a last minute mass vote change to kill someone. That is already bad in a normal TWG, but especially bad now because an assassin could use such a thing to change a lynch away from a ward.

I agree with this. Last-minute mass vote changes rarely work out and should be avoided if at all possible.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Gonna cast my stone for Threalmathguy for now, who is one of the most intelligent people I know and who hasn't contributed to the game beyond a cursory . There's no question that the assassins have to play much more cautiously than the human team, and I don't know that he would be holding back as much if he were a human. Open to being persuaded though

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Gonna cast my stone for Threalmathguy for now, who is one of the most intelligent people I know and who hasn't contributed to the game beyond a cursory . There's no question that the assassins have to play much more cautiously than the human team, and I don't know that he would be holding back as much if he were a human. Open to being persuaded though

Has he played TWG before (or any variations thereof)? I feel like it could be a bit of an adjustment for a lot of people at first, regardless of intelligence.

[The Musical Poet]

Sorry, I haven't responded much. As this is my first play, I am being very cautious to avoid leaking information and to not make any mistakes. Also, my workload and sleep schedule directly affect my presence here. I will try my best to be active.

[A# Minor]

As this is my first play, I am being very cautious to avoid leaking information and to not make any mistakes.

sus

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Yeah, that wording does feel rather... odd.