TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

1. A# Minor: posted
2. BlackDragonSlayer: posted (substantial)
3. ThatHiddenCharacter: not posted
4. XiaoMigros: posted (semi-substantial)
5. TheZeldaPianist275: posted (substantial)
6. SpecsFlyer17: posted (semi-substantial)
7. The Musical Poet: posted
8. therealmathguy: not posted
9. davy: posted (substantial)
10. Toby: posted (semi-substantial)

Quick rundown of how I would judge player activity up until this point (comparatively speaking). I think THC is usually more active overnight (IIRC, he's North America-based but works the night shift), but I could give him a heads-up on Discord if Kai wants me to. If TZP or Specs could make sure Mr. Math knows the game has begun, that would be much appreciated.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

yeah, I just don't have anything much to say about it because I don't understand where you're getting these ideas from

I get that; both davy and I have a lot of TWG history to draw upon to form our thoughts. Anything specific I can potentially clarify for you?

[The Musical Poet]

I will be catching up on this after I finish my work. And hopefully I will be able to respond in time.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Alright, catching up on today's posts. I'm on a work trip in Pacific time zone (USA) so the people east of hear will likely see this tomorrow.

My thoughts on everything: 

[SpecsFlyer17]

To sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1. Kinda restating my earlier post, but I agree that Hot Targets should NOT claim now, but I do think it is in the town's best interest to for Hot Targets to claim if they start collecting the majority of lynch votes. It's a bad situation for the town, but the way I see it, it saves a phase. If the Hot Target doesn't speak up, they get lynched and it brings their respective Assassin much closer to victory AND allows said Assassin to focus their kill that night elsewhere. If the Hot Target claims and avoids a lynch, their respective Assassin will likely just kill them that night. Saves a phase.

2. It's important to remember that someone who thinks they're a normal human could also be Cold Target or a Ward. 6 people here think they are a "normal human"; 2 wards, 2 Cold Targets, and 2 actual Normal Humans.

Lynching a Ward is good; it removes an Assassin.
Lynching a Cold Target is bad; this advances the respective Assassin and allows them to direct their kill elsewhere.
Lynching a Normal Human has a marginal negative effect; we miss an Assassin but it doesn't help the Assassins advance their win conditions. Although, it narrows the voting pool for lynching AND gives the Assassins information for their next kill.

So 4/6 possibilities are at least somewhat bad, so my initial thoughts are it is good to defend yourself if you think you're a normal human.

[SpecsFlyer17]

However....

What if an Assassin starts collecting lynch votes! They're likely going to just claim Normal Human to avoid losing on the spot. If we establish a Normal Human does NOT defend themselves, wouldn't that pin the Assassin? Basically, if someone starts collecting lynch votes and defends themselves, it means they're an Assassin.

That be a good strategy in a different TWG since a townie being lynched directly helps the wolf. But here, it doesn't directly affect the Assassin- the Ward could end up dying too.

So, I think I'm leaning towards "Normal Humans" NOT defend themselves in an effort to pin an Assassin, at least in the early game.

Honestly though, I'm open to other people's thoughts because its still confusing to me a bit.

[SpecsFlyer17]

That be a good strategy in a different TWG since a townie being lynched directly helps the wolf. But here, it doesn't directly affect the Assassin- the Ward could end up dying too.

Typo on this. Should read "That would NOT be a good strategy..."

[A# Minor]

so if people want to lynch me, I just sit back and be like "noice, bye bye guys"

cool


also I'm grasping the concept a bit better but will probably have a million questions in like an hour or so

[A# Minor]

WHY DIDN'T IT TELL ME THAT I WAS NINJA'D.

[SpecsFlyer17]

so if people want to lynch me, I just sit back and be like "noice, bye bye guys"

cool


also I'm grasping the concept a bit better but will probably have a million questions in like an hour or so

That's part of the reason why I'm still not entirely sure tbh. Maybe it's optimal play, but it just feels wrong to not defend yourself if you're a human haha. The design of the game does play a major factor however, as I discussed above.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

They're likely going to just claim Normal Human to avoid losing on the spot. If we establish a Normal Human does NOT defend themselves, wouldn't that pin the Assassin?

This would not happen--the assassin in the case would claim hot target, which is the human-aligned role we have established *does* resist being lynched, since it's the human role which the assassins don't know, but which still leads them closer to their win condition. I've been thinking about this since BDS/Davy/Specs were arguing about it earlier today and I honestly don't think I agree with the rationale. If assassins are getting close to being lynched, they'll just claim hot target because that's what you do when your back is against the wall. No clear way to sort out whether that person is lying.

So since there's not a concerted push to lynch me right now I feel comfortable claiming: I am a hot target. Obv not saying which color. Come get me assassins.

[A# Minor]

I mean, that's a pretty good strategy... if we knew who was a normal townie, or even if there was a way of figuring that out. As you said earlier, we could lynch a cold target. The only thing I could come up with right now is that we'll have to watch people's votes super closely. If someone votes without a reason or is trying to persuade others to vote for them, that may just be a cold target. I'm trying, OK?

2. BlackDragonSlayer: posted (substantial)

also I love this

[A# Minor]

what the heck is happening to NSM right now

[A# Minor]

If someone votes without a reason or is trying to persuade others to vote for them, the person they're voting for may just be a cold target, and they might be an assassin. I'm trying, OK?

fixed

[therealmathguy]

Hello everyone, just caught up. Still digesting strategy talk but I'll cast my vote to

SpecsFlyer17

just to avoid overwhelming majority