TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[XiaoMigros]

leaning BDS tho

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Both town and assassin can win night one. Obviously not going to post the requirements for an assassin night 1 win, they can figure that out themselves.

Okay, we are comparing four things, so it's important to know what we are comparing against. Bold is what I think is favored.

Spoilered to mitigate wallpost

Early town:early wolf
Early town:late wolf
Early town:late town
Late town:early wolf
Late town:late wolf
Early wolf:late wolf

Late wins are more likely than early wins, I feel that much should be obvious.
Early town only needs two correct kills whereas early wolf needs three. Favored for early town.
Late wolf needs to keep two players alive and kill one, but has two chances to kill that one. I feel like this is favored for late town, but it's closer than early v early.

So all in all I will cede that getting to the late game improves the assassins chances of winning by more than the increase from town. So humans are slightly hurt from losing a towny, but it only feels very slightly to me. Still think it's worth going for my strategy, but it does seem less worth it now.

[close]

Overall if we get full role cardflips, I think that eliminates any potential advantage your plan could potentially have (I still think it's much more risky and much less beneficial regardless). As I mentioned to you in PM, you still have to factor in the assassins' ability to use their deduction skills to specifically target players they think are more likely to be their wincon targets.

Not quite, the town win con is considerably more favorable than in a normal man hunt as the one kill needed to be made can be made on two players. This changes the math by a significant enough amount that I trust the humans more than the assassin in that scenario.

Good point (I derped and forgot about the ward for a moment), but the wolf's chances are also higher than a usual manhunt since they don't need parity.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

this convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw

leaning BDS tho

Mind sharing your reasoning with everyone else?

I especially want to hear from you (last game you established a reputation as a wildcard player so I absolutely wanna try to get a grip on you earlier rather than later), A#, and THC . If you don't have time to reply with more substantial thoughts until tomorrow, I get that, but I know A# is around.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

posting to say I'm awake and will catch up with all these posts soon

Any progress?

this is not a satisfactory response

[TheZeldaPianist275]

this is not a satisfactory response

From now on this play shall be known as "breakfast analysis". I have spoken.

[Toby]

this convo is too much to digest rn ill think qbt it tmrw

thats my thoughts too

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Phew, glad to see I'm not an assassin. Would really suck to die because ones corresponding ward gets randomly lynched or assassinated or if one assassin gets assassinated by the other one.

Not much else to say at the moment as work is going to start soon, but I'll check in again during my lunch break.

Also, I'd like to draw attention to the bolded part of davy's first post. Emphasizing "hey, I'm not a wolf!" is a strategy commonly employed by wolves (or humans who don't realize how wolfy it makes them look to anyone who sees through it), especially when they perceive enough remaining players as being susceptible enough to believe it. Given how many new or new-ish players are part of this game, I wouldn't entirely put it past davy to try something like that.

Granted, it is a first post, and we may have to take those with a little bit more of a grain of salt than posts later in the game.

thats my thoughts too

y'all better start digesting

[XiaoMigros]

Mind sharing your reasoning with everyone else?

- Immediately attacking the strategy of not defending oneself when accused
- being aggressive (so you can use this play style to your defense later), seems too out of the playbook

[TheZeldaPianist275]

To sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

[XiaoMigros]

also toby your pfp looks lkke a tooth

[BlackDragonSlayer]

- Immediately attacking the strategy of not defending oneself when accused

Yes, because I don't believe it's an optimal strat. Why would I not call out a strat I don't believe is beneficial?

- being aggressive (so you can use this play style to your defense later), seems too out of the playbook

Read my first two posts that were part of the me/davy discussion, #33 and #34. Compare that to my next post, #38. My initial reaction to davy's suggestion was much more tame. I only started getting more aggressive once I felt davy was doubling down on it in an accusatory manner (which I pointed out in post #41) rather than expressing a genuine interest in discussing the potential viability of the strategy he suggested.

I feel like davy has only started to fold after my aggressive response, so I fully stand by that.

[XiaoMigros]

ok I vote davy

[BlackDragonSlayer]

ok I vote davy

I'm also interested to hear your thoughts on the discussion itself irrespective of davy and me (though, as I said before, it can wait until tomorrow if you're too tired to think properly ).

Or, any quick/brief thoughts about things other than the discussion?

[A# Minor]

Any progress?

yeah, I just don't have anything much to say about it because I don't understand where you're getting these ideas from

this is not a satisfactory response

From now on this play shall be known as "breakfast analysis". I have spoken.

nice

[Toby]

To sum up the discussions for new players:

1) Should the hot targets claim? The pro of claiming is that it removes them as an accidental lynch option, the con is that it opens them up to potential assassin attack. Consensus right now seems to be that hot targets shouldn't claim.

2) Should someone who got a normal human PM defend himself if placed on the chopping block? Pro of self-defense is that, if successful, it might redirect the lynch to an assassin, the con is that lynching one of these humans could very well be beneficial for the humans (if it's a ward), or at least not badly harmful (if it's a regular townie).

Feel free to add if I missed anything.

1) I don't see why. I get it will have the wolves focused on specific targets to wolf, and there's a chance they could both target the same person and waste a kill, but it also removes the chance that they try kill themselves or even kill the opposing ward

2)I don't think you're able to reliable enforce this because there will be reverse psychology from the assasins but also its natural instinct for a human to defend themselves because they'll have their own opinion on who is a better lynch. There's not really anyway to enforce this because people are going to push their own suspicions regardless and re directing is a form of defense. you cant just expect people to be silent and give up once they get voted just because theyre town