TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Hopefully the assassins kill each other and we win

As I said in player sign-ups, the most hilarious ending with be the game ending with three human deaths (human lynch this phase and both wards killed during the night ).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Lively game so far!!

For those of you who haven't played a day start game, they're a completely different beast than night start games. Votes are inevitably thrown out with a lot more flimsy reasoning than they'd usually be—because obviously there's not a ton of reasoning to go on other than feelings. I'm gonna wait until some more people post, but I anticipate that once that happens I'll be making my vote right away.

[davy]

Assassin's Gambit (10p)
x1 Red Assassin
x1 Blue Assassin
x1 Red Assassin Ward – known to Red Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Blue Assassin Ward – known to Blue Assassin, who loses and leaves the game if they die. Does not know they are a Ward.
x1 Red Assassin Cold Target – known to Red Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Cold Target – known to Blue Assassin. Does not know they are a Target.
x1 Red Assassin Hot Target – not known to Red Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x1 Blue Assassin Hot Target – not known to Blue Assassin. Knows they are a Target.
x2 Normal Townies

So let's see.

There are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

Therefore, I suggest that all players that were told they were normal humans do not focus on defending themselves, and to go down without kicking and screaming if the lynch is turning towards them. The Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

Thoughts?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

There are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

This is certainly a very interesting game. In some ways it feels a bit town-sided (then again, like last game, that may be deceptively so), but at the same time, an assassin can win by only having three people dead if they get incredibly lucky (and if they get super duper lucky they also have the possibility of winning by the end of N1!!!).

Therefore, I suggest that all players that were told they were normal humans do not focus on defending themselves, and to go down without kicking and screaming if the lynch is turning towards them. The Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

I get where you're coming from, but I'm not sure that's the optimal strategy. The assassins want us to lynch the hot/cold targets so they don't have to try and night kill them. Ideally, our lynches would try to hit either the assassins or the wards as that's the fastest way to guarantee a win. Plus, if only certain players are "told" to defend themselves, that just benefits the assassins more than it benefits town, both with giving the assassins more information (if someone defends themselves, then it means they're probably a hot target or another assassin), and making it easier for them to push lynches the way they want to.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

In other words, the only truly beneficial human deaths for town are the ward deaths. A normal townie death is mostly neutral (though still kinda disadvantageous because it narrows down the kill selection for the assassins and gives us less votes to work with).

Now that I think about it a little more, a possible alternative to your strategy would be that the hot targets claim (not which hot target they are, just that they are a hot target) if, and only if, they're becoming the majority lynch target. It gives the assassins a guaranteed kill toward their victory condition, yeah, but it means we don't waste a lynch on them and have the opportunity to lynch a better option. Still kinda risky and not ideal, but better than handing the assassins their victory condition on a silver platter (they gotta work for it, dammit!!! ).

[davy]

Ideally, our lynches would try to hit either the assassins or the wards as that's the fastest way to guarantee a win.

Wards do not know who they are, so the only way town can attempt to lynch them is if the assassins slips up, in which case we should lynch the assassin anyway.

Also, I'm pretty sure that "just lynch the wolves" is the ideal strategy in any TWG.

Plus, if only certain players are "told" to defend themselves, that just benefits the assassins more than it benefits town, both with giving the assassins more information (if someone defends themselves, then it means they're probably a hot target or another assassin), and making it easier for them to push lynches the way they want to.

What you say is correct, but is not what I was suggesting. There is a difference between certain players being told to defend themselves (your words), and all other players being told not to defend themselves (my words). The way I said it, a Hot Target may still opt to not defend him/herself or opt to defend him or herself anyway. And I just realised I should probably stop talking about any benifit or detriment of doing one or the other at least in topic to give the assassins as little information about what the Hot Targets may or may not do. Regardless my point that the 'normal townies' shouldn't defend themselves still stands.

Ninja'd

[davy]

I'll get to your last post next, BDS, but first:

In an ideal scenario we would find a player that we all agree on is most likely human and have the hot targets claim to them. Then that player could chose the lynch targets to make sure we never hit the hot targets as long as that player is still alive.

If the player we chose is an assassin, this blows up in our face and we will lose the game, but it is something we've pulled of before on NSM (can't quite find the game again, but maybe someone else can), so it is not completely impossible.

[davy]

In other words, the only truly beneficial human deaths for town are the ward deaths. A normal townie death is mostly neutral (though still kinda disadvantageous because it narrows down the kill selection for the assassins and gives us less votes to work with).

It also narrows down the number of players that could possibly be assassin or ward. And while the game is ongoing, each assassin will never be able to outvote their ward and their remaining target, so having less votes should never become an issue.

Now that I think about it a little more, a possible alternative to your strategy would be that the hot targets claim (not which hot target they are, just that they are a hot target) if, and only if, they're becoming the majority lynch target. It gives the assassins a guaranteed kill toward their victory condition, yeah, but it means we don't waste a lynch on them and have the opportunity to lynch a better option. Still kinda risky and not ideal, but better than handing the assassins their victory condition on a silver platter (they gotta work for it, dammit!!! ).

Don't feel like discussing this any further where both assassins can see this, so I'll continue in PMs

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Wards do not know who they are, so the only way town can attempt to lynch them is if the assassins slips up, in which case we should lynch the assassin anyway.

The only way town can lynch them deliberately.

Also, I'm pretty sure that "just lynch the wolves" is the ideal strategy in any TWG.

You're suggesting that players on the lynch docket shouldn't try to defend themselves. I'm saying that makes it more likely for us to not lynch the assassins. Using your strategy we're much more likely to hit a non-assassin, non-ward—people being able to defend themselves as normal would go a long way toward potentially directing lynches toward better targets.

What you say is correct, but is not what I was suggesting. There is a difference between certain players being told to defend themselves (your words), and all other players being told not to defend themselves (my words). The way I said it, a Hot Target may still opt to not defend him/herself or opt to defend him or herself anyway. And I just realised I should probably stop talking about any benifit or detriment of doing one or the other at least in topic to give the assassins as little information about what the Hot Targets may or may not do. Regardless my point that the 'normal townies' shouldn't defend themselves still stands.

I put "told" in quotes for a reason. You explicitly said this in your post (emphasis mine):

The Hot targets can then either chose to also not defend themselves to blend in with the normal humans or opt to defend themselves to prevent progressing the assassins' victory and possibly blend in with the assassins (I leave that decision up to them in order to not give assassins more information with regards to finding them).

There's very little reason the hot targets wouldn't defend themselves.

In an ideal scenario we would find a player that we all agree on is most likely human and have the hot targets claim to them. Then that player could chose the lynch targets to make sure we never hit the hot targets as long as that player is still alive.

If the player we chose is an assassin, this blows up in our face and we will lose the game, but it is something we've pulled of before on NSM (can't quite find the game again, but maybe someone else can), so it is not completely impossible.

I feel like this post is a bit of a red herring. There aren't any obvious roles to claim to in the first place—that's really the only way claiming strategies are viable.

It also narrows down the number of players that could possibly be assassin or ward. And while the game is ongoing, each assassin will never be able to outvote their ward and their remaining target, so having less votes should never become an issue.

I think you're forgetting something: the assassins have their own nightkill guaranteed to them, and also have the possibility of getting control of the lynch if they're sufficiently persuasive enough. Town only has the possibility of control over the lynch. It's not about the assassin begin able to strictly outvote remaining players, it's that the assassin has less people they need to convince to sway the lynch the way they want to. Narrowing down the number of players remaining works more in the assassins' favor than it does town's.

[davy]

Big post incomming, but before that I'd like to say that I've really been enjoying the discussion so far.

[SpecsFlyer17]

The only role to claim is Hot Target. Cold Targets and Wards don't know who they are.

I'm trying to think of the pro/cons for claiming Hot Target, but without the color assignment. Unless a Cold Target is lynched on Day 1, the Assassins will likely kill their respective Cold Targets on Night 1. That leaves us Day 1 and Day 2 to try and figure things out before the Hots are potentially targeted on Night 2. Even still, it's not a guarantee that the Assassins will even target the Hots if they aren't sure which color they are.

That all being said, the point of the Hot Target is to be unknown to the Assassins. Why blow that advantage? The only missing information for the Assassins' win condition would be the other Assassin's identity.

I don't think its worth it to claim Hot Target.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Hot targets shouldn't claim unless they're about to be lynched.

Also, to pre-empt Davy's big post, right now I kinda feel 50/50 about Davy. His initial suggestion was fairly normal and not out of the ordinary (see: Toby's strategy post from last game for similar behavior from a human) but I don't really like how he seemingly doubled down on it and adopted more of an accusatory tone (and switching over to PM was pretty weird and not entirely necessary, imo). I'll wait to see the contents of the big post before making more of a judgment—and I hope to see more people posting before that time too.

[davy]

Showing every part of the post even if I have nothing to say about it to make clear that I'm not skipping anything (in case you are wondering).

The only way town can lynch them deliberately.

Doesn't seem like a productive point to discuss about, so I won't make further comments on it.

You're suggesting that players on the lynch docket shouldn't try to defend themselves. I'm saying that makes it more likely for us to not lynch the assassins. Using your strategy we're much more likely to hit a non-assassin, non-ward—people being able to defend themselves as normal would go a long way toward potentially directing lynches toward better targets.

Care to elaborate? Do you think non-assassin players would be better at directing the lynch to an assassin by defending themselves than an assassin redirecting the lynch to a non-assassin by defending themselves? Right now I do not see how.

I put "told" in quotes for a reason. You explicitly said this in your post (emphasis mine):
There's very little reason the hot targets wouldn't defend themselves.

Response in PM.

I feel like this post is a bit of a red herring. There aren't any obvious roles to claim to in the first place—that's really the only way claiming strategies are viable.

Emphasis on "ideal scenario" and "not completely impossible".

I think you're forgetting something: the assassins have their own nightkill guaranteed to them, and also have the possibility of getting control of the lynch if they're sufficiently persuasive enough. Town only has the possibility of control over the lynch. It's not about the assassin begin able to strictly outvote remaining players, it's that the assassin has less people they need to convince to sway the lynch the way they want to. Narrowing down the number of players remaining works more in the assassins' favor than it does town's.

Going back and forth about how to respond to this as it risks suggesting assassin strategy, which I want to avoid, so I'll keep it at this:

Firstly, one of the assassins will die, since there is no victory condition with both assassins alive.

Say we get a day phase end state of:

Assassin
Ward
Target

The assassin can only win by convincing the Ward to vote for the target. The ward, knowing he is town but not knowing the roles of the other two, should push for a lynch of either of the other two and so should the target. If the assassin is only trying to convince the Ward to vote for the target, he exposes himself and will get lynched. If the assassin also tries to convince the target to vote for the ward, he risks succeeding and losing anyway.

So, having only three players remaining is to the detriment of the assassin. With more players it becomes easier for the assassin to guard his Ward without arousing suspicion.

I did some calculating what outcome was most likely if we get to a day phase end state where the only target left is the hot target and it cannot be found by the assassin by POE, but concluded that the calculations were going to be too hard for me to figure it out, so I admit I'm unsure if in that case it is better to have many town or few town.

That all being said, the point of the Hot Target is to be unknown to the Assassins. Why blow that advantage? The only missing information for the Assassins' win condition would be the other Assassin's identity.

I don't think its worth it to claim Hot Target.

Agreed that the Hot Targets shouldn't publicly claim.

Unless a Cold Target is lynched on Day 1, the Assassins will likely kill their respective Cold Targets on Night 1. That leaves us Day 1 and Day 2 to try and figure things out before the Hots are potentially targeted on Night 2. Even still, it's not a guarantee that the Assassins will even target the Hots if they aren't sure which color they are.

I suggest that there should not be discussion about Assassin strategy in the topic, as it can help them form their plans.

[A# Minor]

posting to say I'm awake and will catch up with all these posts soon

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Checking in on my lunch break. Swear I'm not a wolf this time. Kai, are cardflips just the color of the person killed, or do they say the explicit role of the deceased?

There are six human players that don't know their role. In most games, a normal human death is disadvantageous to the humans because it brings the wolves closer to victory. However, in this game a Normal Towny death doesn't progress the game state towards either team's victory, whereas a Ward's death progresses the game towards a human victory. So for two out of three 'normal' humans, death does not progress the game towards the assassins' victory.

Want to reply to this part of Davy's opening arguments. It is true that only 1 in 3 "normal" human deaths progresses the game toward a wolf victory, but to better evaluate the risk profile of lynches, we should be weighting the different outcomes, not just relying on probability of a certain outcome.

A ward is lynched: Humans are greatly benefitted, one wolf team is greatly harmed, one wolf team is slightly helped
A regular townie is lynched: Humans are slightly harmed, both wolf teams are slightly helped
A cold target is lynched: Humans are moderately harmed, one wolf team is moderately harmed, one wolf team is greatly benefitted

So I think that it's probably true that lynching a ward is more helpful to the humans than lynching a cold target is helpful to the wolves, despite the fact that they have an equal chance of happening. For the finance bros in the crowd, it's the difference between returns and risk-adjusted returns.

Of course, the profile of the game changes significantly after this, because one assassin team being down strengthens the other one comparatively. So lynching a ward changes the calculation. I think Davy's point holds water though.