TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also BDS what happened to your toenail

Ingrown toenail (second time for the same toe). The podiatrist believe it was damaged and the nail would continue growing back thick (likely causing recurring ingrown nail) and thus suggested permanent nail bed removal.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Did Xiao also have an issue with my TZP comment? Unless Xiao said otherwise, there's no reason to believe that Xiao wasn't taking issue with my THC comments rather than my TZP comment.

To clarify this, TZP noticed because the comment because it was about him. Toby noticed it because he was looking for something to call me out on. I'm doubtful anyone else, including Xiao, would've noticed the TZP comment otherwise.

[Toby]

Actually on second thoughts I think optimal assassin play is probably to try secure your cold target to die through a lynch, and use night kills only to focus on getting the other assassin or hot target.

There's still like 2(?) more lynches at least for the cold targets to die so best play would have been to hang on a bit longer

That being said just because it's probably the better play doesn't mean that it's the play that was made

[Toby]

Ingrown toenail (second time for the same toe). The podiatrist believe it was damaged and the nail would continue growing back thick (likely causing recurring ingrown nail) and thus suggested permanent nail bed removal.

I got this done xx

[Toby]

To clarify this, TZP noticed because the comment because it was about him. Toby noticed it because he was looking for something to call me out on. I'm doubtful anyone else, including Xiao, would've noticed the TZP comment otherwise.

I mean I don't think anything was wrong with your THC comments so it's more likely Xiao was also referring to your tzp comment

[SpecsFlyer17]

The TZP claim was the first bombshell of information we had, I was just asking around to get peoples' takes on it.

Maybe that was partly because of how last game went haha, but also just to get multiple opinions.

[Kaiveran]

Kai, in case you didn't see this ^^^

Yes, an Assassin who is killed during the night still has their own kill go though.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

THC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Hopefully you'll see this whenever you pop in the thread next, but do you mind elaborating on this?

And furthermore, who are you suspicious of aside from Toby?

[Toby]

I mean A# has said they are suspicious of 6/9 of the other players this game.

She said numerous times she was suspicious of THC but is now in agreement with THC for calling me out. A# you're a bit all over the place this game lol

The only person she's not said she's suspicious of is TZP, Specs, and BDS. I can see why for the former 2 and no one else has really pointed much suspicion towards TZP or Specs. But i think BDS has been questioned a bit so that stands out a little

Im conflicted a little because I want to say A# is being a bit too here and there to be a wolf but she i feel she's very different to her previous 2 games. She also admitted that when she voted Davy she didn't see THC's vote, which means she thought she was breaking the kitB herself by choosing Davy over math guy, and she showed no inclination to vote Davy the entire phase.

[SpecsFlyer17]

For this lynch:

Normal Human x1 (1/7 chance): Mildly Unfavorable - I feel like at this point, we need to get rid of an Assassin. While lynching a human doesn't help any Assassin directly, it removes the pool of non-Assassins down from 5 to 4, with 2 kills still occurring on night 2.

Hot Target x2 (2/7 chance): Very Unfavorable - This is probably the worst thing that can happen. The same reasons for not lynching a Normal Human apply, with the added downside of one Assassin having no targets remaining besides the other Assassin.

Ward x2 (2/7 chance): Favorable - Double kills the Ward and corresponding Assassin. This is a good thing, although losing an extra town vote for day 2 would be the downside. Still, reducing the number of killings per night to 1 will make a big difference imo.

Assassin (2/7 chance): Very Favorable - Kills an Assassin while retaining an extra town vote. The remaining Assassin will have a chance at hitting the opposing Ward and Hot Target for subsequent nights, which are worthless for him/her. The Ward and Hot Target of the deceased Assassin are basically Normal Humans at that point.

Another thing to consider- As the pool of potential targets decreases, the chances of an Assassin hitting the other Assassin or Ward increases. So while a "mislynch" is still undesired, chaos may ensure on night 2 by Assassins inadvertently hitting each other.

[SpecsFlyer17]

We have a 4/7 chance of getting an Assassin this phase, either via Ward or direct.

[A# Minor]

well in that case i dont mind if you lynch me bc i know im not a hot target


heres to hoping im not just a normal townie

[The Musical Poet]

We have a 4/7 chance of getting an Assassin this phase, either via Ward or direct.

I like those odds

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Poet, btw, don't feel bad about feeling in over your head. This is an unusually complex game, I don't envy you it being your first. Right now, just try to figure out who is who however you can and try to persuade people if you feel strongly.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Assassin Lean:

A#: Overly neutral posting, weird behavior on the davy train on D0, especially now that Math was cleared of any wrongdoing. See my previous post where I voted for her for more information. Gets points for recently being open to being lynched, although that could be reverse psychology to avoid getting more votes.

Slight Assassin Lean:

THC: Not a great look being the deciding vote that changed the davy/math KitB to a davy lynch, especially given that Math was a human and davy was the Cold Target.

Poet: Not exactly sure how I feel about this one to be honest. On one hand, I totally understand not having the time to participate. On the other hand, this feels wolfy. It would be convenient being the Assassin and hiding behind "being new" and "not having enough time to play". 

Slight Town Lean:

TZP: Thoughts haven't changed much, although I remain slightly intrigued by the Hot Target claim. I think it's a defensive town move, although the full effects of it remain to be seen. I'm willing to entertain the thought that it's Assassin play to avoid being lynched, although I don't really think that's the case.

BDS: Good vibes from discussions and PMs regarding town strategy, although the davy vote is a blemish on the resume. His vote came super early in D0, which relieves some suspicion, although it could've just been planted early to avoid last-minute finger-pointing.

Town Lean:

Toby: I honestly don't have anything substantial to hold over Toby's head. I think his discussions and criticisms have been pretty well thought out.