TWG CXVI: Assassin's Gambit (Game Ovev? GAMA OVAR?!)

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Hahaha just because we are at a point where allowing ourselves as normal humans to die is a benefit, doesn't mean I can't ask you to give reasons for your vote to avoid you just saying your suspicious because of vibes / or for literally responding to you lol

You and I both know BDS has enough experience under his belt to play smarter than that. I highly doubt that he would actively try and get his cold target lynched, especially as the person leading the lynch train, if he were the blue assassin. There's definitely a possibility, albeit small imo, that he could be the red assassin, but I don't see BDS making that play as blue assassin. I understand Xiao agreeing with you there because they don't have as much experience to know that would be a bad play, but I know you're a veteran. Even more of a veteran than me. You trying to make BDS look suspicious for that makes me even more suspicious of you.

I have literally given more examples and thoughts than just "bad vibes" for why I'm suspicious of you, one such example quoted above. I'm not going to repeat all those same things while at work because mobile sucks for making tons of quotes and I'm not even supposed to be on my phone while there in the first place, but if you actually read my posts you'd realize I gave plenty of valid reasons to be suspicious of you.

THC I'm curious as to why given your reasoning on math, why math was red number 2 but poet was only neutral in your suspicion list when they had contributed much the same?

Easy. Poet is brand new to the game, plus her status as new to the forum also gave me little to go off of. However, math was introduced to us by TZP as a smart person (with experience in the game as well?). TZP even called them out on their suspicious behavior earlier in the game. I felt it made sense with all that info to hold them to a higher standard than someone who's brand new.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

XiaoMigros has died. They were the Red Assassin's Cold Target, aligned with the Town.

threalmathguy has died. They were a Normal Townie.

As others have already said, the simplest explanation is that the red assassin got desperate, tried to play catch-up, and went after Xiao immediately, while the blue assassin just made a shot in the dark; but what doesn't settle me about that explanation is why the red assassin went after Xiao when they probably knew fully that Xiao was a likely lynch possibility today? It's possible that blue assassin went after Xiao, thinking they were the red assassin who tried to jump on an "easy" lynch early (not knowing davy was the blue cold target), while the red assassin went after mathguy for similar reasons, thinking he was the blue assassin hopping on the davy lynch for self-preservation and trying to lynch his cold target (maybe red assassin thought that mathguy was so reluctant to hop on the davy lynch specifically because he knew davy was his cold target and it'd look bad for him?).

THC I'm glad I'm not the only one who is suspicious of toby after backtracking a bit

Ma'am, I literally posted a suspicion list yesterday with Toby at the top spot

Interesting how Xiao and Davy were both top lynch candidates yesterday and both were cold targets ...

Both people who were nightkilled were part of davy's lynch, and I don't think that's a coincidence. It makes me think that both assassins were hoping the other assassin was among davy's votes and both whiffed.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I don't understand the either me or Davy is assassin logic. Assassins obviously don't know eachother so there isn't partnership there. The only way they could be related is through protecting/gunning for ward/cold target. Given Davy now flipped cold target and I didn't gun him I feel like your logic is flawed but you refuse to see that ?

I was certain that davy was an assassin D0, and at the time I assumed that the other assassin would probably think similarly. Following, I was under the assumption (at the time, emphasis on at the time, based on your interactions with davy or what I thought were your interactions) that the other assassin wouldn't want to buddy up with someone they thought was likely to be the other assassin.

I still believe one of you or davy is an assassin, especially because of my thoughts on you independent of davy. Davy wasn't an assassin.

And you've had PM conversations regarding my thoughts on your opinions of THC ? Why?

The first was TZP, who PM'd me before you PM'd me. The second was you, who PM'd me.

I literally PM'd you to say I explicitly wasn't talking about your opinions on THC so why are you even having that irrelevant conversation ?

Exactly because it's not about THC. You took issue with the fact that I mentioned TZP's hot target claim. Except that had already been mentioned before (and probably more times than that, but that's the first one that stood out to me on a re-read), and as I recall, you didn't take issue with it then—except you suddenly took issue when I said it. You claimed to be trying to avoid drawing attention to it, and yet what you did was essentially draw more attention to it than it would have had you just not said anything! You claimed the information was beneficial to assassins, and yet you drew attention to it by making such a big stir about what I said.

It's like you're trying to stir shit when I literally told you, my point wasn't referring to your THC thoughts at all. You talked about multiple things in your post with THC and I said I disagreed with you revealing that information. And yet you've not only doubled down in the topic only your THC opinion, but you've done it through PM when I literally wasn't referring to your THC opinion at all.

You approached me through PM. You're the only one here trying to stir shit, and that's all you ever were by calling me out on that in the first place. You weren't trying to protect information, you were trying to make me look bad by calling me out on something you could pass off as information that needed to be protected.

Furthermore, Xiao, now confirmed human, agreed with what I said and said the exact same thing in the topic. So I'm not the only player to have the human mindset to think the stuff you was saying was detrimental to town

That reasoning reeks of someone who targeted Xiao for that exact reason (and you're definitely reaching with that reasoning), which makes me extra glad I decided to publish my suspicion list when I did. Given that suspicions on you were already ramping up last phase, it's entirely possible you knew you were cornered and went for the desperation play.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm ambivalent on Toby's loyalties right now, but I want to say that I completely disagree with that read, BDS

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also, rest in RIP, Math. Thanks for playing! We shall carry on your good work. Sorry I was wrong about you.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm ambivalent on Toby's loyalties right now, but I want to say that I completely disagree with that read, BDS

and i disagree with your disagreement of that read

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Ma'am, I literally posted a suspicion list yesterday with Toby at the top spot

I was thinking about that. Plus the fact she said it like my suspicion on him was a new development and not something that had been developing more and more for over a phase.

[Toby]

How is red assassin killing his hot target a desperation play?

It's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

[Toby]

How is red assassin killing their cold target a desperation play?

It's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

Typo fixed

[BlackDragonSlayer]

How is red assassin killing their cold target a desperation play?

Blue cold target getting lynched D0 means red assassin is lagging behind. They likely wouldn't kill Xiao when they knew Xiao was a likely lynch, unless they had good reason to.

It's literally the move to make, Xiao had suspicion but barely any votes and from how night 1 was going, math guy was the day 2 lynch candidate

Was he?? ?? ?? That's not the vibe I got at all. If anything, between THC, A#, and Mathguy, he got the least amount of attention of the three; meanwhile, regardless of votes, Xiao was still pretty high up on most people's suspicions.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Unfortunately I'll be a little absent these next few days due to work, but I'll reply when I can.

BDS, I actually disagree that the Red Assassin wouldn't go after their Cold Target. Given that Xiao wasn't a for sure lynch, I think it makes the most sense for to just take the sure bet kill of the Cold Target during the night.

Regardless of who killed Math and Xiao, this was a mildly favorable night phase imo; We expected the Cold Targets to be gone anyway, and we lost a human (which as discussed, isn't the worst outcome). Both full Hot Target identities are still hidden.

That all being said, I'm going to put my vote on A# right now for reasons previously stated. Mainly being the weird behavior at the end of D0 (jumping on the davy train), and tellingly over-cautious, neutral play.

I'll be back periodically, but my thoughts will have to come in waves at once, rather than active dialogues.

[Toby]

I was certain that davy was an assassin D0, and at the time I assumed that the other assassin would probably think similarly. Following, I was under the assumption (at the time, emphasis on at the time, based on your interactions with davy or what I thought were your interactions) that the other assassin wouldn't want to buddy up with someone they thought was likely to be the other assassin.

I still believe one of you or davy is an assassin, especially because of my thoughts on you independent of davy. Davy wasn't an assassin.
The first was TZP, who PM'd me before you PM'd me. The second was you, who PM'd me.
Exactly because it's not about THC. You took issue with the fact that I mentioned TZP's hot target claim. Except that had already been mentioned before (and probably more times than that, but that's the first one that stood out to me on a re-read), and as I recall, you didn't take issue with it then—except you suddenly took issue when I said it. You claimed to be trying to avoid drawing attention to it, and yet what you did was essentially draw more attention to it than it would have had you just not said anything! You claimed the information was beneficial to assassins, and yet you drew attention to it by making such a big stir about what I said.
You approached me through PM. You're the only one here trying to stir shit, and that's all you ever were by calling me out on that in the first place. You weren't trying to protect information, you were trying to make me look bad by calling me out on something you could pass off as information that needed to be protected.
That reasoning reeks of someone who targeted Xiao for that exact reason (and you're definitely reaching with that reasoning), which makes me extra glad I decided to publish my suspicion list when I did. Given that suspicions on you were already ramping up last phase, it's entirely possible you knew you were cornered and went for the desperation play.

I mean thanks for raising that's Specs did it as well. I probs didn't reply to it because it was posted 30 mins after my bed time and I was trying to catch up on everything else instead, and the claim was fresh then so I think I purposefully wanted to avoid quoting it and drawing more attention to it

But I'm sus of that too, and Specs actually PM'd me specifically just to get my thoughts on TZPs hot target claim so for some reason he seems to be really trying to figure out if TZP is not target or not and see what everyone else thinks

Just because 1 person raises it though doesn't mean saying it again won't draw any extra attention to it. I had already called you out before on saying stuff that's probs best not to draw attention to, so that's why I said it again. Also, you said multiple things in your post and I was purposefully vague on what I was referring to hoping you'd get it, and I also PM'd you in private to avoid it continuing in topic, so I really disagree that I was drawing further attention to it given that I let the topic believe it was your opinion on THC I was referring to rather than your opinion on TZP because I didn't correct you in topic, only in private

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS, I actually disagree that the Red Assassin wouldn't go after their Cold Target. Given that Xiao wasn't a for sure lynch, I think it makes the most sense for to just take the sure bet kill of the Cold Target during the night.

Sometimes the simplest explanation is the one most likely to be true ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Never hurts to consider alternatives though.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

QUESTION FOR THE HOST

Kai, if one assassin goes down tonight either because of a direct hit or because of a ward, does that assassin's kill still go through?

Kai, in case you didn't see this ^^^

Also BDS what happened to your toenail

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I mean thanks for raising that's Specs did it as well. I probs didn't reply to it because it was posted 30 mins after my bed time and I was trying to catch up on everything else instead, and the claim was fresh then so I think I purposefully wanted to avoid quoting it and drawing more attention to it

Much like A# missing your mathguy vote, you missing it is something we can't really prove one way or the other. But given that, as you said later in this post, you already called me out for something earlier, I'm certain you would have called Specs out for it earlier if you were actually suspicious of him for it.

But I'm sus of that too, and Specs actually PM'd me specifically just to get my thoughts on TZPs hot target claim so for some reason he seems to be really trying to figure out if TZP is not target or not and see what everyone else thinks

Given how thoroughly duped Specs was by TZP last game, I incline more toward Specs not wanting to let assassin TZP slip by with such a bold (dare I say, ridiculous) gambit.

Just because 1 person raises it though doesn't mean saying it again won't draw any extra attention to it. I had already called you out before on saying stuff that's probs best not to draw attention to, so that's why I said it again. Also, you said multiple things in your post and I was purposefully vague on what I was referring to hoping you'd get it, and I also PM'd you in private to avoid it continuing in topic, so I really disagree that I was drawing further attention to it given that I let the topic believe it was your opinion on THC I was referring to rather than your opinion on TZP because I didn't correct you in topic, only in private

The thing is, if you hadn't drawn any attention to my post, I don't think anyone would've payed the TZP aside any mind. And yes, you had already called me out before, but that information was also information that was not harmful to have in public (again, feels like you're advocating for withholding helpful/necessary information). I never would have gotten the idea that you were referring to my TZP comment until you/TZP explicitly spelled it out for me, because not only had it already been said before, it was not harmful information to have public regardless (though I did avoid bringing it up publicly until today on the off-chance it was).

Did Xiao also have an issue with my TZP comment? Unless Xiao said otherwise, there's no reason to believe that Xiao wasn't taking issue with my THC comments rather than my TZP comment.

I think you're looking for plausible deniability and trying to shift suspicion away from yourself.