TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Oh yeah, Toby, why were you disappointed I didn't use "the wolf would ever go against the grain" as a defense?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Just a heads up that I might be out and about at the time of phase update, so even if I can't give a proper update I'll try not to keep anybody waiting longer than I have to.

Otherwise, if everyone agrees, we could extend the phase (by up to 24 hours).

[Toby]

Holy smokes lots to respond to here. Sorry I missed so much back and forth.

Toby, to clarify what you say in this claim to Xiao--you said the no lynch strat would benefit the wolf? Are you going back on what you think of the plan, or are you saying that *opposing* the no lynch strat is what benefits the wolf?

Re: your enthusiasm about coming up with plans for the humans--if you are a human and this is sincere, that's the exact same thing I was doing

Regarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person.  I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying

Xiao, re: the plan I shared with you and Specs: I assume you're talking about my interpretation of the N2 wolfing of A# rather than Olimar+someone being convenient for Toby. You're definitely right that it could be a wolf banking on increased attention being thrown his way, [], but I hope it's been clear that I have not been playing. I said earlier on that I

Toby also talked far and away the most N1--I'm not sure what you are referring to here Xiao? There are fewer people to talk to, but also it's the end of the game and so the decision we make here is literally life or death. I think being more passionate is entirely appropriate.

Toby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51

Lastly Toby, I do like you and have been really happy to be able to play with you again after so many years--sorry if I've been communicating dislike!

No I'm not going back on the no lynch strategy. I whole heartedly believe it was the best strategy for us. However, while I find it odd, I don't think I find you too suspicious for not supporting a no lynch. In my opinion I find it so obviously beneficial to humans to no lynch day 3, that I believe it would be silly for a wolf to share their genuine wolf opinion and oppose it. And I think most people would agree with that. Therefore I wanted to test if you were trying to use some sort of reverse psychology since I had given you credit before for going against the grain and I deemed that a human trait. So I wanted to test it you would explicitly say going against the grain is not what a wolf would do.

Oh yeah, Toby, why were you disappointed I didn't use "the wolf would ever go against the grain" as a defense?

And above is why I was disappointed you didn't say that. Because I set bait and you didn't take it lol, but I can't give you human points I just can't give you wolf points lol

[Toby]

Just a heads up that I might be out and about at the time of phase update, so even if I can't give a proper update I'll try not to keep anybody waiting longer than I have to.

Otherwise, if everyone agrees, we could extend the phase (by up to 24 hours).

I'd be fine with a phase extension

Personally I'd also much prefer the phase to end at least 3 hours earlier than it's usual time if anyone else supports an extension + that

[Toby]

Toby, Xiao makes a fair point that it's very easy to say that you picked 51

Lastly Toby, I do like you and have been really happy to be able to play with you again after so many years--sorry if I've been communicating dislike!

I mean that's true but it's easy for anyone to say anything at any time,I'm just telling you what I did so upto you if you want to believe it

That's good you do like me ! I've been worried that I come across aggressive in my posts sometimes and I'm scared if I pick someone apart and they're infact human I don't want to just be ripping apart their personality lol! It's been like 5 years since I've played and I forgot how aggressive it can feel sometimes but it's the nature of the game!

Also anyone questioning me posting so much or being passionate just look at any of my previous games from years ago and I'm still the same. As someone who repped nsm in one of the first championship games, the more posts the more discussion and I've been trying to ask people direct questions and share my opinion on almost anything not only so people can read me better but so I can get responses and read other people better.

[Toby]

I'm on my phone but to respond to TZP:

Regarding what you said about wanting to lynch Magnet being a bad play as a wolf--this is a valid point that when you're a wolf and everyone has narrowed a list of acceptable lynches to you and one other person, you ideally keep that other person alive for as long as possible. My hesitation in taking what you say at face value here is that lynching Magnet would have allowed to keep Olimar alive for nighttime shenanigans if you were a wolf, and possibly would not have forced you into the position of siccing Xiao and me on each other in that situation. I could really go both ways on this is what I'm saying

Okay so with 6 players on day 2 let's say I am a wolf and I see a true benefit in lynching magnet first and then using olimars shenanigans to pick my own kill

Xiao, TZP, and specs all expressed me as a top suspicion, so honestly it didn't matter who I killed my name was still going to come out the next day. Wolf me would have been much safer following the crowd and holding out for magnet surviving

[XiaoMigros]

I would be fine with a phase extension, I'm very tired and don't think I can put in the time needed for this today, if can be helped

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'd be fine with a phase extension

Personally I'd also much prefer the phase to end at least 3 hours earlier than it's usual time if anyone else supports an extension + that

Just waiting to hear from TZP. So something like 4pm Pacific Time/7pm Eastern/midnight UK time?

[Toby]

Phases usually end at

9pm TZPs time
3am my time
4am Xaios time

7pm BDS' time

I'm not sure what TZP or BDS daytime is like tomorrow but if phase could end a few hours earlier tomorrow that would be great so I can see the end


Ninja'd: but yeah midnight U.K. time works fine for me

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Yeah, I'd be down for a phase extension. I'm quite busy tonight and tomorrow but I'll engage with whatever I can.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

All right, it's settled then!

Day 4 will now end Thursday, August 31st at 4pm Pacific Time / 7pm Eastern Time / Midnight UK Time.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Ok I slept on this and I have some significantly different thoughts today.

Xiao, TZP, and specs all expressed me as a top suspicion, so honestly it didn't matter who I killed my name was still going to come out the next day. Wolf me would have been much safer following the crowd and holding out for magnet surviving

This is a fair point--I had forgotten that Specs had floated you as one of his top options as well. Also to be completely transparent I was not thinking about the numbers when I wrote that yesterday, and you're right that even if you had gotten Magnet lynched and taken down Olimar+randomhuman N3, there still would have been two humans alive and we'd be in pretty much the same situation we're in now.

Now Xiao. Your playstyle this whole game has made sense to me, with one exception--the electric boogaloo post. I don't see a clear reason to do that as a human beyond just kicking dust up in the air, which had already been done numerous times with the shenaniganery surrounding the PNS claiming. When I asked you what your plan was, you straight up said "idk lol, no goal" and I bought it because I was more suspicious of Toby at the time.

So what I'm wondering whether what happened N2 is that you reached out to Olimar, as a wolf, to coordinate a wolfing, but it didn't go as you expected. The reason I think this is because the unusual N2 wolfing pick is still unaccounted for, and it's possible that Olimar double-crossed you and you were afraid he was going to air you out to the thread. So to get out ahead of that, you dropped a post saying "yeah I claimed wolf to Olimar but I was doing it as a human haha, also we should definitely lynch Olimar". But Olimar didn't push the issue, and we lynched him anyway.

Thoughts?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Following Toby's lead on this--things I have done that have been helpful for the humans:

N1
I also spent most of N1 trying to help find a number-picking strat that wouldn't give the wolf any kind of edge. I was enthusiastic in the same way Toby says he was. Even before the game started, Specs and I had discussed the game's design, trying to find a way to solve it, and a bunch of that carried over into N1 for me. I really did have quite a lot of back and forth with other players about what would and wouldn't work, so Toby, if you are actually a human, please apply that same logic about excitedly looking for a solution to me as well!

D1
I was genuinely frustrated here that not everyone had gotten on board with the number picking scheme and we lost whatever chance we might have had to pull data off of what number people picked while everyone was still in the game. Again, an emotive response I don't think I would have had as a wolf. Also I just remembered how excited THC was to play for the first time in ages, and he ate a wolfing N1 that wasn't even directed at him necessarily :C pour one out.

The E. Gadd lynch stands out as being kinda weak retrospectively, and I bear some of the blame for that I think--by the time he was like "I'm not reading all that" it was pretty clear he wasn't our guy, but it was too late.

N2
Didn't say much--probably having breakfast for 16 hours or something

D2
I really think that the Olimar lynch was the wisest move here and I was one of the loudest voices pushing for it. I was also trying very hard to get a read on the N2 wolfing and I think that all of my inferences were reasonable and articulate.

N3
pretty quiet

D3
I'm a broken record on my no-lynch stance so I won't say much more about it here

This about brings us up to present.

[Toby]

Xiao show us the pms between you and olimar co ordinating your plan

You showed the ones between you and A# in the same post but not you and Olimar

[XiaoMigros]

sure

hello, are you really the PNS? I'm a little confused as to what's actually going on..

Yep, it's me! What are you confused about?

I'm just wondering why it's beneficial for the wolf to reveal themselves to you, especially if you end up dying tonight. Isn't the whole point of PNS and wolf meeting that they can work together?

It's a game of risks, and I've given the wolf-senpai the choice! If they choose to reach out, they can choose how the game progresses. If not, they can still get their double kill and I can get my win con. No matter what they choose, someone WILL die tonight. It's up to them how happens and what alliances are made, though.

What if I told you I was the wolf?

I had a feeling it might be you, after you asked those wolf-centric questions in the thread. It's nice to finally meet you, Wolf-sempai!! I can switch it to specs, easy.

However, if you would like to make things more interesting, you could save my killing for later to allow you to aim more intentionally next night+. I think I could pretty plausibly work up the story that I was trying to fish for the wolf to claim and that I was lying about my claim, and was in cahoots with A# etc. something spicy like that (especially since the targets I announced would be missed).

If you think it'd be too risky (since I would probably be a potential lynch candidate) I can stick to the double kill tonight.

I think this would work! If there's only one person killed tonight, that means the town will assume we haven't found each other yet and there's no incentive to lynch you (if the others even believe you're still the PNS at that point).
That said, there is a significant security risk in keeping you around, especially since you're not really bound to anything once you win. So, here's a list of possible scenarios:

1) We double kill tonight, town knows we've found eachother but doesn't know who I am. I have to play out the rest of the game, 3 more nights, without dying. This may be possible but is statistically unlikely (not to mention I'm hardly the most experienced player in the room).
2) Single kill tonight, via your swapping: You are alive but have no obligation towards me since you've already won. There's nothing stopping you from ratting me out to town. However, town doesn't know we've met and is not suspicious of anything (anything extra).
3) Single kill tonight, without your swapping: You and I can save the double kill for a later date, whilst both keeping in the town's favor. Assuming we both survive the day phase, we can double kill immediately after if you feel like you're next on the chopping block. Surviving 2 nights is already significantly better odds for me than surviving 3.

I am leaning towards option 3) but I'm aware of the risk it entails for you. Do you think you'd be able to survive the next lynch round? We could probably divert attention to magnet since they've been even quieter this game than you have. Personally I don't think I'm at immediate risk for lynching so I'm less worried about that

You're not at risk of lynching, but I am. I'd say pick whoever you think poses the biggest threat to you rn that isn't A#/Toby and we can knock them off the danger-to-you list, while also securing my victory since there's a solid possibility I won't be around for another night.

I think it'd be way more fun to mess with humans than to hand them an easy victory, if that helps you feel better about the possibility of me outing you.

That is fair. I've already chosen the number 5, and I think TZP would best be gone. Do your magic, magic man

It is done, Wolf-senpai~