TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Forgot to mention, but the story was updated!

[Toby]

I just said Xiao was plausibly a wolf, and I also have been consistently saying that I'm not 100% on you.

My suspicion list is the same as it was earlier: Toby>Xiao>Specs. I feel like it's a little more plausible for it to be Xiao than I did last day phase. But I still think that it's probably Toby, and this strat seems like a hailmary to make it easier to get out of the hot seat. Happy birthday though.

This is how I see it: we were trying so hard to avoid two humans dying N3. But if we skip D3, and N3 and N4 both register a night killing before D4, that's essentially the same as if we lost two people during the night phase anyway. I agreed with Toby's logic earlier in the game that lynching is the humans' best power and we should use it, and I agree with it now. Going back on that rationale seems very wolfy to me.

I just see u ranking Xiao as number 2 on a 3 person list, I don't see you suggesting anywhere I'd be anything but number 1

[Toby]

Bit disappointed specs died.

I went for 51 as I didn't mind myself dying since I was appearing on the top of 2 suspicion lists

Reminder to everyone not to vote as the wolf can insta any vote

Also not to vote today let's wait for irl tomorrow

[Toby]

I'm not sure how else to say this: skipping the day 3 lynch gives the wolf proportionally more influence in a final head-to-head. Yes, it removes one person from the pool, and that's a nonzero amount of information that will be helpful to us. It still comes at the expense of a much riskier final vote, because the way we decided to play it, two votes is an insta, and it would not have been that way before. If Toby is indeed a wolf, bumping off one bonus human means that he only needs to convince one other person to vote with him against someone--me, apparently.

In a game where the wolfings are randomised, it is far beneficial to limit the pool for a lynch and allow another player to be randomly removed. The wolfings so far have been A#, magnet and specs, all who had suspicion on them at some point and possibly could have been lynched. Allowing another player at random be wolfed helps humans for the final vote.

Sure the wolf only needs to convince 1 person to vote the other way but I think that trade off is far worth it.

I'm not sure where I'll vote today yet I need to go back and analyse you both AGAIN

My gut feeling night 1 was Xiao. My gut feeling night 4 was TZP. I don't think you both have said much against each other this game so would be interesting to see your views. I'll take a look through your posts when I finish work today

[XiaoMigros]

Sorry if I've been a little inactive these past hours, I'll try looking over stuff again this evening (ca. 5-6 hours)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

My reads on the remaining players:

Xiao: a lot of easy agreement posts. If this was all there was to it I'd say there was a good chance you were a wolf trying to coast by letting the most vocal players bounce off each other and tear each other to pieces. But there was also that wolf claim to Olimar, and that doesn't synergize well with a more passive playstyle as a wolf. I'd put that as a point in the human!Xiao column.

However, you cottoned immediately onto Toby's lynch-skip plan, without seemingly examining the case to be made either for or against. I disagreed with it, and I remain bothered by how neatly Toby's suspicion posts of me followed from me stating a pretty reasonable case for why I thought it was a bad idea, but at the very least Toby gave substantive reasons for why he thought it was a good idea--it seemed like you just wanted to gloss over most of that debate iirc.

----

Toby: We have been largely opposed to each other in terms of strategy the whole game: first over whether the PNS should claim, then over whether we should lynch the PNS, and now finally over whether we should have lynched anyone at all on D3. I'm bothered by the fact that you are only now suggesting that I am untrustworthy for disagreeing with you over strategy, when in fact I've been pretty consistently disagreeing with you over strategy since the start. All this is in addition to the N2 double wolfing duck being convenient for you, as well as the fact that your recent posts stating your suspicion on me are pretty weak? Up to and including accusing me of not doing something that you explicitly said it wouldn't make sense for us to do?

Human points on Toby are that outside the things that we disagree on, his leading of the dialogue has been largely pretty helpful for the humans--the N1 number schemes especially stand out as things that he was doing thoughtfully.

---

So my lean right now is Toby for the consistent thread through the game, namely that while getting there were certainly merits to getting the PNS to claim, to not lynching the PNS, and no skipping the day 3 lynch, I still feel comfortable saying that those are all plans that are not best for the humans, and if he is a wolf, the no lynch scheme worked like gangbusters in his favor to draw final battle lines. I have an easier time placing myself in the mind of wolf!Toby than wolf!Xiao

Also to let you guys know the timing of my vote in good faith--I agree that we should wait till tomorrow irl to cast votes, but I have plans tomorrow evening and probably won't be able to wait till the very last minute, as often happens. So I'll hold out on voting for now but I won't have a choice by tomorrow late afternoon.

[Toby]

I do have to confess TZP I actually don't inherently find you opposing the no lynch strategy suspicious. In fact my initial opinion of it was inclined to give you human points for going against the grain. However, I've mentioned giving human points for people going against the grain earlier this game (I believe to yourself and Xiao?) so I wanted to test if you were doing it purposefully by calling you out on it to see how you would defend yourself.

I actually told Xiao of it before I did it:

I'm starting to see TZP in a new light recently

I want to test something but I want to make sure someone knows what I'm doing before I do it. I figure you over specs as specs knows him irl

I've made call-outs this game seeing people look human to me for going against the grain and TZP was the only player going against the No lynch strategy which would obviously benefit the wolf.

I wonder if he was intentionally going against the grain with this move for human points so I want to test if I call him out on it if he will defend it for being too obviously wolfy or something, or say a wolf obviously wouldn't go against the grain

I wanted to see if you would use the defence that it wouldn't make sense for a wolf to go against the grain or something of the sort - and you didn't (which is disappointing lol)

You actually have consistently been against almost every plan I've suggested this game. And I do respect different viewpoints, I don't just assume you're on a different team because of that, maybe you just don't like me lol!

[Toby]

As a defence for myself I want to remind everyone of things I've done this game:

Night 1
Came up with a number strategy to try limit ties (and irl was genuinely excited and doodling numerous number plans in my notebook trying to come up with a strategy), I even mentioned a number strategy that would prevent both equal number ties and equidistant ties but limited our number pool to 10/11? numbers which let the wolf target us easier. I feel like these kind of strategies only come from genuine excitement and actively thinking about best strategies for the humans

I was very vocal on how I thought it was in the best interest for the PNS to claim. In hindsight I naively didn't think about the possibility of the PNS and wolf working together to kill who they wanted. But I mean I feel like that just shows how my mindset was so human strategy focused I missed a wolves strategy.

Day 1
When A# claimed PNS I fake claimed as to stop the wolf being able to work with them

I also collected + provided info on who said they would follow the number plan, who followed it, and what number they picked and tried to analyse it

Night 2
I can't remember what I did i think I was just quiet after olimar announced I might die. But I did post my suspicion list 3 mins before phase end here because I thought for sure I was about to die, and I wanted to say things so late that none of what I said would influence the night actions

Day 2
I was opposed to lynching Olimar as I believe he was intending to die the next die in a double kill and I wanted to let that happen. I wanted to lynch magnet instead. - I definitely feel like this is a major bad move as a wolf. lynching Olimar and then banking on magnet being alive the next day to take the lynch would have secured my win. I could have happily went along with the crowd, not drawn any further suspicion and then we can get magnet lynched the day after. Obviously magnet was wolfed night 3 so that plan wouldn't have worked out, but it certainly would have been a clear win for me. If I was a wolf and we lynched magnet, then Olimar died night 3, I was the next top suspicion on everyones list. It would have been so risky to play like this where I'm in the predicament of having to convince TZP and Xiao to lynch each other and I've been at the top of their list most the game. There's no benefit to wolf me pushing this

Night 3
quiet

Day 3
I suggested and pushed for the no lynch. If anyone was to be lynched other than me, Specs name was being hinted. pushing the game on another night massively risks his death and risks my out if I'm a wolf. There's no benefit to wolf me suggesting/pushing this

[Toby]

One thing I've just noticed and I find odd is this PM I got from Xiao night 2, an hour before phase end when he was doing the tomfoolery with Olimar:

Hi, I really hope you're town lol

I'm in a bit of a mess rn and I might get wolfed as a result, or by chance. If you're the wolf, the game is probably over after today, but if I die, please please keep a close look on A# Minor (and Olimar of course, if he isn't able to kill himself or if he gets lynched).
Sending this just before the phase change just in case...

Xiao are you able to explain the part in bold?

How would you have gotten wolfed as a result? The wolfing's are random

[Toby]

Looking through Xiao's posts and the like 3 PMs I have from him I wanted to try see some human passion from him and I don't think I see it. The closest example is the PM above.

He didn't even join in on figuring out a number plan which a lot of people joined in on, and he was active during the whole conversation but didn't really make his input.
I don't really buy the excuse of not being good at statistics, neither am I but it's just a bit of passion or excitement in trying to think of a good plan for the humans that I wanted to see!

also i failed statistics in high school so i wont be much help with the math stuff haha

ill read through the stuff here later im busy rn

I also memorably expected him to post something meaningful after he said he was going to read through stuff later but his following 4 posts over a 16 hour period added nothing

in general for other stuff we do chat in a discord tho

"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war

i was joking

yeah, i missed page 2 of the messages oops

It actually made me ask him a question directly to get his opinion because I was noticing it.

I stopped being suspicious of Xiao after he made a big post to accuse me, but honestly he accused me the same day I called him out for not analysing as much as I expected him to (when reading his previous game lol)

Xiao any thoughts ? Reading your past game I feel like you were more analytical in that than how you have been here

You think so? I think that in the past game also I only got analytical a little later on in the game, once there was more information to go off of. Still, I'd be happy to answer any questions and will try to write something today maybe

so im not sure how much weight it actually holds


I want to say whoever the wolf is out of you has done a good job. I think with this game the PNS added a lot of distraction that took away from soley hunting for the wolf. We've also actually only tried to lynch a wolf once so far (day 1). So we've only allowed ourselves 1 myslynch but with the random wolfings it sort of(?) balances out some of our suspicions got wolfed

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Approximately 24 hours until phase end!!!

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao are you able to explain the part in bold?

How would you have gotten wolfed as a result? The wolfing's are random

I thought A# was the wolf (a lot of us did), and thought they might be conspiring already with Olimar due to how they sounded in PMs. Not to mention if another real wolf had already reached out to him, they might judt lynch me to test who really is the wolf

[XiaoMigros]

Toby, the main reason I suspect you is that your play style has felt very reactionary the whole game.Your play style and post contents hace constantly been changing, almost as if to adapt to any possible suspicions that might otherwise arise. Also, you've just felt a little too passionate these past few days, with countless walls of text being posted. I appreciate investing that amount of time, but forgive me for thinking that sudden uptick of activity looks a little off. You've also seemed like you favor your own life over the success of the town, somehow lynching you was never an option even when it couldve helped us because we all suspected you. town!Toby could afford to have taken more risks, and should have taken some too.

[XiaoMigros]

TZP, the main reason I suspect you is that plan you shared with Specs and I a few days ago. It seems incredibly convenient that it points to Toby with basically no doubt. Did it not occur to you that that's what wolf!anyone else could do to make Toby look more suspicious.

That said, you've kept yourself more rational than Toby this game, and come up with your own ideas and plans unprompted. Disagreeing with Toby, who was often the loudest voice in the room, is probably not something a wolf would risk doing, certainly not repeatedly. This is also where your play style this round differs from last round, where I suspected really early you might be a wolf.

[XiaoMigros]

I don't want to base my arguments solely off of 'vibes', but when I avoided doing that last time it ended up costing town the game. Toby, ever since you sent me that PNS PM you've felt extremely suspicious to me. Not that there's anything super suspicious about doing that, but unfortunately that's just how I feel.

TZP, it would be wrong to say I haven't suspected you but you've remained consistently low on my suspicion lists, as you still do now.