TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[SpecsFlyer17]

The more I think about it, the "Toby was the only one that couldn't pick 50" theory could have been foreseen by anyone. Xiao, TZP, or I (as wolves) could have worked with the PNS to target A# at 35 behind the scenes, knowing that Toby would look the most suspicious (since Olimar had offered to target either A# or Toby). While the double kill at 50 would have had the biggest immediate positive impact for Xiao, TZP, and me, setting up Toby (or A# if Toby was the one to be wolfed) could have been a reason to pass on it.

For what it's worth, it was originally TZPs idea back on Day 2:

I have a different explanation than the one you suggested in the thread but I absolutely do not want to go public before I hear from Olimar--if Toby is the wolf, and he knew that there was a good chance that Olimar would switch him, he wouldn't be able to wolf 50 without revealing himself.

And I shared it with Xiao later that day:

Let me know what you think of this:

Exactly two players had something to lose last night by picking 50 as the wolf: Toby and A#. Assuming Olimar was not lying about his plan, I see no reason for any other wolf to not pick 50- its a double kill, or at the very least a targeted single kill if Olimar jumped away from 50 to survive.

But Toby or A# as wolfs picking 50 would be foolish. Say Toby picked 50 as the wolf, knowing that Olimar is going to swap either Toby or A# to 50 as well. What happens when Olimar is the only one to die? All evidence points at a failed swap of the wolf to 50. Toby and A# had every reason to not pick 50 to avoid being exposed by a failed PNS swap, since we all knew Olimar was targeting one of those two.

Tldr, everyone besides Toby (A# died so she wasn't the wolf) as wolf should've picked 50, while Toby would have had a good reason not to. I can say with confidence that the wolf did not pick 50, as I picked 52 and survived.

What do you think?

Other option is Magnet is pulling a "Luigi wins by doing absolutely nothing" lol

Who then initially questioned it, but then bought it:

I'm not sure I follow, as there's absolutely no reason the number chose has to have been 50.
Olimar was able to choose any number for both himself and another chosen player, meaning it could easily have been changed at any time, so long as he and the wolf both knew about it. Basing your entire case off of '50 or not' doesn't really help it I'm afraid, I'll need further explanation from you if you're serious about Toby.

WAIT

I see your point now, and I can confirm the wolf did not pick 50, because I actually picked 51. It's also a little odd that Toby's supposed number happens to be right at the other end of the spectrum, almost like he knew.. I know TZP's number was 5, since that's what I asked Olimar to change it to. You're right, it's almost certainly Toby or magnet, or maaaybe Olimar too.

To sum up, TZP came up with the idea, shared it with me, who then shared it with Xiao. Xiao initially didn't understand, but it later clicked. Legitimate gears turning, or clever deception to make me think he didn't know all along?!

There's also the possibility of the wolf literally picking numbers at random with 0 strategy at all. In that case, we're running circles around ourselves here.

[XiaoMigros]

The more I think about it, the "Toby was the only one that couldn't pick 50" theory could have been foreseen by anyone.

thats the main reason I'm suspicious of you

[Toby]

Why does that make Specs in particular suspicious ?

[Toby]

I'll take the hit on the insta, I lost situational awareness on how many votes there were.

So are you suggesting Olimar got the win condition on Night 2 by swapping A#? If that's the case, why would wolf!Xiao try to get Olimar lynched? What benefit does that serve the wolf? Seems like a non-PNS human would have been a better choice.

No I don't think Olimar met his win condition. I'm suggesting that the wolf getting the humans to use 1/3 of their lynches on anyone other than themselves is a great strategy. And I believe convincing people to vote the PNS is an easy option.

Further, since the wolf didn't follow Olimar's plan, that raised 3 lynch candidates right away, and seems to be the direction most people wanted to follow in lynching- Olimar, myself or magnet. So it's really easy to see why not following Olimars plan was a greater benefit to the wolf than following it

[Toby]

Also I guess for numbers tonight we should be going

TZP: 4n+0
Xiao 4n+1
Specs 4n+2
Toby 4n+3

[SpecsFlyer17]

thats the main reason I'm suspicious of you

I mean, I'm calling out everyone here. If you're going to be suspicious of one person based on that alone, it was TZPs idea originally.

I'll commit to the 4n+x strategy.

[Toby]

TZP real quiet lately

[Toby]

I do find it really sus for TZP to be so against the No lynch strategy which obviously benefits the humans and hurts the wolf

[SpecsFlyer17]

I do find it really sus for TZP to be so against the No lynch strategy which obviously benefits the humans and hurts the wolf

Yeah, I'd like to hear from TZP again on why he thought no-lynch was a poor choice.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Sorry everyone, been out all day--will hopefully tag in before phase end to say something more substantive in case I'm not alive for day 4. Re: the no lynch strat goes, no, it does not obviously benefit the humans, and I'm not sure what you want me to say in addition to the argument I already laid out

[Toby]

I think it makes you look like a wolf wanting better odds of surviving the lynch

[Toby]

Seeing things in a new light today.

Specs is considering other options despite me being at the top of everyone's suspicion list and I believe he's actually possibly the only player this game who's defended me so I actually have some human points to give him now

TZP on the other hand has been planting the seed through the game that just because the wolf didn't follow olimars pick 50 plan, it must be either me or magnet as a wolf - and not seeming to budge from the possibility of anything else

I gave TZP human points before as I thought him voting me early on day 1 was quite a risk but I looked at his previous game where he was a wolf and he did the exact same thing with olimar day 1 so I'm taking that back

I also find his reluctance to No lynch very strange and even stranger that he was the first to officially vote no lynch despite not agreeing with it. As if just to say hey I didn't agree but I'm on your side humans I'll vote with u

One thing that I was giving TZP big human points was his energy with this PM he sent me back at night 1:

Dealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?

But come day 1 I followed the I am Spartacus plan and he didn't. (I do get I did originally said I don't think it would work for me to do it since I was so vocal regarding the PNS night 1) but I still found it extremely odd to receive a vote from him for claiming PNS and not connecting any dots that I was just trying to stop the wolf contacting with A# who I thought was PNS.

Last games post game he also made reference to only 1 mis lynch being strong for the wolves. And yet this game because we used a lynch on olimar we've only allowed ourselves 1 mislynch again (since I wouldn't count olimar as a lynch used for the wolf). So I would have thought if he was human this game there might have been a reflection to how the uses of lynch played out last game, and considered there being a benefit to not lynching olimar, but he jumped on Xiaos train of thought and stuck to it.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Approximately 2 hours until the phase end!!!

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I did not vote you D1 because you claimed PNS--I voted for you D1 because you were jockeying for PNS claims the night before. (or maybe on D1, I forget exactly when the timing was) That was the wolfiest thing I had seen up to that point in the game. I didn't follow the "I am Spartacus" plan for the exact same reason you didn't--how can you accuse me of that being wolfy? I did ask one other player with whom I had been talking to do that, at your suggestion, and he declined.

I'm not sure how else to say this: skipping the day 3 lynch gives the wolf proportionally more influence in a final head-to-head. Yes, it removes one person from the pool, and that's a nonzero amount of information that will be helpful to us. It still comes at the expense of a much riskier final vote, because the way we decided to play it, two votes is an insta, and it would not have been that way before. If Toby is indeed a wolf, bumping off one bonus human means that he only needs to convince one other person to vote with him against someone--me, apparently.

and not seeming to budge from the possibility of anything else

This is absolutely putting words in my mouth--I just said Xiao was plausibly a wolf, and I also have been consistently saying that I'm not 100% on you.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

Spoiler

To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.

Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.

Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher

Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.

Host Clarifications:

• The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
• The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
• The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
• An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
• An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
• The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
• The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
• The game does not have cardflips.

[close]

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Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4. E. Gadd Industries
5. ThatHiddenCharacter
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby

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Specs was wolfed, having picked the number 18.

It is now Day 4. Day 4 ends in two days, on Wednesday, August 30 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).