TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[SpecsFlyer17]

No Lynch

As mentioned, there isn't a significant benefit with the 1v3 opposed to the 1v2, so I think no lynch is the move today. We'll see who gets offed night 4 and go from there.

[Toby]

I don't think we should have instad but oh well

[XiaoMigros]

why not? no lynching was your idea

[Toby]

yeah but insta just cuts the game shorter does it not?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'll update as soon as I get on my computer.

[XiaoMigros]

I don't see why cutting it short is a bad thing? There's been a lot less discussion these past few days and I think we're all fairly set in our viewpoints

[Toby]

But IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."

I don't understand this, I did seriously engage with your reasoning and provided many counter arguments to it. I could quote at least 5, it's nearly all I engaged with the whole of day 2?
Have you not been looking back at my posts to analyse?

Or have you but you just disagree still that I was engaging in the topic of removing the olimar threat

[Toby]

I don't see why cutting it short is a bad thing? There's been a lot less discussion these past few days and I think we're all fairly set in our viewpoints

I feel like there has been a lot of discussion? Your posts have been quite short though, I don't recall you saying any reasoning for any of your suspicions today

[Toby]

If the main suspicion on me is because Olimar's plan wasn't followed by the wolf - do you see how easy it has been for the wolf to frame me?

But also why would the wolf want me dead when TZP and Xiao were voting me the previous day anyway

[XiaoMigros]

Your posts have been quite short though, I don't recall you saying any reasoning for any of your suspicions today

That's because I don't have anything to add in terms of my suspicions, they haven't really changed

[Toby]

What do we think about the whole Xiao claiming wolf to Olimar and then convincing everyone to vote for Olimar the next day?

Imo it's far beneficial to the wolf for the humans to spend 1/3 of their lynches on someone else, and if Xiao can do that while having PM's where he only pretends to be wolf to 'trick' Olimar into going for a plan, but then it doesn't go ahead because Xiao 'isnt' the wolf and then he shows off PMS to 'prove' he wasn't the wolf. And then gets humans to be scared of the wolf and PNS working together so they waste a lynch? No one else think that could be a big elaborate plan to prove humanity?

Either me or A# was supposed to die that night and I think there were generally questions marks on both of us from everyone. Keeping us in the game would help to blend in

[Toby]

2. Xiao - Definitely a lot more neutral and less suggestive of strategies imo, but I have no concrete evidence to suggest you being a wolf. You and I have a few PMs discussing Toby's potential reasons to not follow Olimar's plan, which you seem to buy once it clicked with you. Could be legitimate human play, could be you just jumping on momentum to frame Toby.

3. TZP. I have the most PMs with you, and they all lean human. Again, it could just be master deception, but all the strategies and theories check out. Really not anything here to suggest wolf play.

does anyone care to share these PM's? Maybe it has all been covered in topic but I'm getting the feeling things are being unaddressed

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

Spoiler

To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.

Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.

Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher

Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.

Host Clarifications:

• The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
• The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
• The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
• An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
• An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
• The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
• The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
• The game does not have cardflips.

[close]

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Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4. E. Gadd Industries
5. ThatHiddenCharacter
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby

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Nobody was lynched.

It is now Night 4. Night 4 ends in one day, on Monday, August 28 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Story was updated.

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'll take the hit on the insta, I lost situational awareness on how many votes there were.

What do we think about the whole Xiao claiming wolf to Olimar and then convincing everyone to vote for Olimar the next day?

So are you suggesting Olimar got the win condition on Night 2 by swapping A#? If that's the case, why would wolf!Xiao try to get Olimar lynched? What benefit does that serve the wolf? Seems like a non-PNS human would have been a better choice.