TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Phase ends in approximately 24 hours!

[XiaoMigros]

Yeeeeaahh honestly I'm not really buying the arguments for a no lynch. It may be true that it removes a person as a possible wolf, but it also removes that person from being able to vote, and it means that the wolf only needs to convince one other person to vote his way.

So what? Toby is my prime candidate also but I don't see how a no lynch hurts us here. If everyone lists their suspicion lists today (mine is toby>specs>tzp) we can just stick to those after someone else gets wolfed. it only increases our odds..

[Toby]

The wolf needs to convince at least one person to vote their way regardless

Removing one player as a possible wolf is massive lol

The reason why a no lynch at the start of the game wasn't beneficial is because it was unpredictable how that would affect the rest of the game.

Does anyone want to say why they think I'm the wolf cause honestly I feel like I've suggested every plan to benefit the humans and hinder the wolf and it's at the point where it's not even reverse psychology. I can't be a wolf just trying to look good because if I was the wolf I could have made the game a lot easier for myself. For example, lynching olimar yesterday and banking on lynching magnet today would have been an easy win condition for me, but I was hell bent on lynching magnet first, letting olimar die in the night and then I'd have to sway 3 people who probs have me at the top of their list to vote one of themselves. It just makes the game a lot harder for me rather than staying uncontroversial and making the game easier for myself lol.

Also magnet died picking 54. If I was a wolf i needed magnet alive and would have predicted him being too inactive to send in a number and his being randomised. Using psychology probability id figure most players would probably go for a number as far to the end of the scale as they could, so I'd pick somewhere 0-10 or 90-100 to try get them. Using psychology probability id have a better chance of getting one of you guys using that strategy

[XiaoMigros]

care to provide a suspicion list, then?

[XiaoMigros]

same goes for you specs

[Toby]

it would be specs > olimar > xiao for me rn

[SpecsFlyer17]

I see the benefit of no-lynching tonight.
If we no don't no-lynch, the wolf needs to convince one person to force a 50-50 split, which will result in a random pull. Not ideal. If we do no-lynch, he still needs to convince one person to win on Day 4. That's not as good as the 50-50 split, but it's not a huge benefit.
The benefit of removing one player on Night 4 throws the balance towards the no-lynch option today, imo. Whoever gets wolfed on N4 is no-longer a factor in the Day 4 lynching discussion. I think there's a lot of benefit to narrowing the suspicion list. Speaking of that...

1. Toby - I'm still thinking about Night 2, where only you and A# had the obvious benefit of not following Olimar's plan. Of course, you could have known that, but A# was in the same boat, so you could've just framed that on her if she survived. She didn't (which was pure chance), which took away that escape. Additionally, you were very insistent of not lynching Olimar. I read that as you trying to protect the PNS in exchange for the doublekill+targeted kill and PNS win condition. That being said, you've suggested a lot of strategies and theories that lean human. Definitely more so than Xiao, imo.

2. Xiao - Definitely a lot more neutral and less suggestive of strategies imo, but I have no concrete evidence to suggest you being a wolf. You and I have a few PMs discussing Toby's potential reasons to not follow Olimar's plan, which you seem to buy once it clicked with you. Could be legitimate human play, could be you just jumping on momentum to frame Toby.

3. TZP. I have the most PMs with you, and they all lean human. Again, it could just be master deception, but all the strategies and theories check out. Really not anything here to suggest wolf play.

By design, information is at a premium in this game, it seems. I think it's entirely reasonable for the wolf to get away with teaming up with no one, trying to fly under the radar, and relying on slowly chipping away at humans. Not a whole lot of defense to play. Example, magnet was at the top of our suspicion list and he was literally doing nothing.

Also, apologies for the relative inactivity. I was out of state doing some house hunting.

[SpecsFlyer17]

it would be specs > olimar > xiao for me rn

TZP instead of Olimar, right?

[Toby]

TZP instead of Olimar, right?

yes lol oops

specs > TZP > Xiao

[TheZeldaPianist275]

If I am outvoted on the no lynch thing, I'll go along with it. Not all three of you can be wolves lol, and this is more of a general strategy thing than a tell on someone's identity, so I don't see a point in digging in my heels, I guess. I stand by what I said though, and it will be something to discuss in postgame!

Toby, my reason for leaning toward you is the same thing that Specs said. Responding to this:

I was hell bent on lynching magnet first, letting olimar die in the night and then I'd have to sway 3 people who probs have me at the top of their list to vote one of themselves.

You were hell-bent on lynching Magnet and keeping Olimar *alive* into the night phase. Lynching Magnet was the right play for you whether you were a human or a wolf, since several of us had interpreted the wolfing in a such a way that it was either you or him, and your logic for why it could be him was the same as mine. But IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."

Also magnet died picking 54. If I was a wolf i needed magnet alive and would have predicted him being too inactive to send in a number and his being randomised. Using psychology probability id figure most players would probably go for a number as far to the end of the scale as they could, so I'd pick somewhere 0-10 or 90-100 to try get them. Using psychology probability id have a better chance of getting one of you guys using that strategy

Also, what? Magnet had just tagged back in, and said he'd be more active when I told him we needed him. Why would that make you think he wouldn't send in a number?

No lynch unless one of you changes your mind--still not my preference

[XiaoMigros]

Well, no lynch is my preference, so that's what I'll be voting for. That said, specs and tzp, just remember that we all would otherwise be voting Toby rn

[Toby]

1. Toby - I'm still thinking about Night 2, where only you and A# had the obvious benefit of not following Olimar's plan. Of course, you could have known that, but A# was in the same boat, so you could've just framed that on her if she survived. She didn't (which was pure chance), which took away that escape. Additionally, you were very insistent of not lynching Olimar. I read that as you trying to protect the PNS in exchange for the doublekill+targeted kill and PNS win condition. That being said, you've suggested a lot of strategies and theories that lean human. Definitely more so than Xiao, imo.

The thing is though I was around at the end of night 2 upto the last minute. I put A# at the top of my suspicion list and had a PM from Xiao a few hours before phase end saying they were suspicious of A#. If I was a wolf, highly likely I also would not have followed Olimar's plan, but I also would have wanted to try avoid A# dying as best as I could.

I had no private communication with Olimar night 2, and as far as I was aware either me or A#'s number was getting swapped to 50. Therefore, it would have been in my best interest to choose a number far from 50 as there was half a chance A# was going to be 50, but A# died on 35 so we know the wolfing number was around then. Therefore I don't think the wolf wanted to buy into Olimar's plan exactly, but actually wasn't too bothered about me or A# dying. It's actually possible the wolf wanted to choose a number close to 50 so they'd get that double kill, but also wanted to see if they could sneak in a triple kill with an equal distant tie. However, whatever number they choose was closest to A#s 35 rather than 50

[Toby]

Toby, my reason for leaning toward you is the same thing that Specs said. Responding to this:You were hell-bent on lynching Magnet and keeping Olimar *alive* into the night phase. Lynching Magnet was the right play for you whether you were a human or a wolf, since several of us had interpreted the wolfing in a such a way that it was either you or him, and your logic for why it could be him was the same as mine. But IIRC you never seriously engaged with our reasoning to remove the Olimar threat before he could coordinate a double wolfing again, and "letting olimar die in the night" could just as easily have been "let Olimar suicide bomb a human down with him."

The only threat olimar had alive was the chance the wolf wanted to co-ordinate with him to wolf a specific player. And I don't believe anyone here is leaning strong town on anyone so even if the wolf got his pick of a kill, I don't believe it would have been that damaging.

The benefit of not lynching olimar is that we could use the next 2 lynches to remove our top 2 suspects. Luckily Magnet was wolfed, so our top suspect managed to die anyway. But if Magnet didn't die we'd probably be lynching him right now and then we'd have lost the game? We still have a chance to win now only because we lucked out on the wolfing

Also, what? Magnet had just tagged back in, and said he'd be more active when I told him we needed him. Why would that make you think he wouldn't send in a number?

magnet only posted right after the phase end and didn't show any activity after that. he didn't even follow the number plan so I wouldn't be surprised if his number was randomised again

[Toby]

Also I have all this suspicion on me because the wolf didn't follow Olimar's plan night 2

but are you forgetting I received the 2nd most votes day 1? The wolf probably didn't want me to die, and if they keep Olimar alive then that was a lynch to waste on not the wolf, and they survive another day

Sounds like a win win for the wolf, and honestly why TZP has went up on my suspicion list considering they placed the first vote for me day 1, and believe they first suggested the lynching of Olimar. TZP already had a suspicion against me and not really one on anyone else, so wolf TZP would not have benefitted in following Olimar's plan

[XiaoMigros]

hopefully our suspicions can be alleviated through a random lynch tomorrow