TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[magnet]

I wouldn't mind voting Olimar too.

[XiaoMigros]

I vote magnet

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Phase ends in approximately 2 hours!

Olimar and Magnet both have 2 votes against them.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Assumptions: Either Olimar or Magnet will be lynched, and Olimar is either the PNS or wolf.

If we lynch Olimar and he's the wolf, the game ends.
If he is the PNS, the wolf gets one random kill on night 3. That brings the total player count to 4, which leaves the wolf and three humans on day 3. Get it wrong there, and humans lose, since the wolfing on night 4 will end the game.

If we lynch Magnet and he's the wolf, the game ends.
If he is a human, things get a bit more complicated. Night 3 will likely be a double kill of the PNS with a targeted human and the PNS. That brings the count to one wolf and 2 humans. Obviously can't afford a mis-lynch there either. However, if the PNS decides to stay alive after his victory condition is met, that leaves wolf, PNS, human, human. And since the wolf just helped the PNS win, that is not favorable for the humans.

I see the main difference being the targeted kill if the PNS is left alive, and the fact that the PNS may survive to force a wolf-PNS-human-human final 4. The game will effectively end after day 3 regardless.

Thats why I think Olimar is the better choice.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

^^ I was about to say a bunch of that. Toby, I disagree with your logic here. Given that I don't feel certain of a wolf pick right now, I would rather only two humans die in the D2-N3 stretch of time than three humans die. Olimar being killed removes that risk. And Specs is right--if we leave him alive and he hasn't hit his win condition by Day 3, he can only win if he votes with the wolf to make himself the last standing non-wolf, so the Day 3 lynch comes down to a KitB in the best case scenario.

If the wolf didn't want to work with the PNS last night why would they change their mind tonight ?

Also this^^--whatever reason the wolf had for avoiding Olimar last night, it probably doesn't apply tonight. If the wolf is Magnet, he's paying attention to the game now. If it's you, Olimar isn't putting you up to be double-wolfed tonight again. So I think really the only play is to lynch Olimar today, space our votes carefully during the night, and lynch as judiciously as possible on Day 3.

Magnet, if you are actually a human, we need you active. Don't drop out on us again!

Also very curious why Magnet voting for Olimar prompted Xiao to switch to a Magnet vote.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

Spoiler

To some, it's just another day at the office. To others... every day is a life and death struggle to try and slog through another grueling day at work. But today... something's different. Today, nine people wake up in an empty office, tied to chairs in a circle facing away from all the others. There's one rule to the game: pick a number, any number.

Wolves:
1. Head Honcho: Every night, the Head Honcho picks a number between 0 and 100 by PM'ing the host with their selection. Every night, all the other players PM the host a number between 0 and 100. Whoever's number is closest to the number the Head Honcho picks dies. In case of a tie, all tied players die. People who do not pick a number (including the Head Honcho) have their number randomized.

Humans:
2. Number Cruncher
3. Number Cruncher
4. Number Cruncher
5. Number Cruncher
6. Number Cruncher
7. Number Cruncher
8. Number Cruncher

Third Party:
9. The Phantom Number Swapper: Counts as a Human. Every night, in addition to picking their own number, they select one player. The Phantom Number Swapper picks a NEW number for that person, and if they are human, that is their selected number for wolfing purposes. Wins if someone is wolfed as a result of their shenanigans—either if the person who's number they swapped is wolfed, or if someone else is wolfed because of the number swap—or if they are the last Human alive. Can win with either team.

Host Clarifications:

• The Phantom Number Swapper's powers can only affect humans.
• The swapped number that the Phantom Number Swapper picks can potentially be the same number they picked for themself.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can choose not to use their power each night.
• The Phantom Number Swapper can win as a result of their own death if they died as the result of swapping the would-be wolfing target's number.
• The Phantom Number Swapper is informed when they achieve victory. It is not announced publicly.
• An example of The Phantom Number Swapper's victory: Player A picks 20 as their number. Player B picks 21 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player B's number to 50. The Head Honcho picked 21 as the wolfing number. Player A dies instead of Player B.
• An example of when The Phantom Number Swapper does NOT achieve victory: Player A and Player B both pick 50 as their number. The Swapper swaps Player A's number to 60. The Head Honcho picked 50 as the wolfing number. Because Player B would have died either way, this does not count as death-by-shenanigans.
• The number(s) of any killed players will be announced, but the number the Head Honcho picked will not be.
• The Head Honcho wins whenever there is one or fewer humans remaining.
• The game does not have cardflips.

[close]

----------

Players:
1. A# Minor
2. TheZeldaPianist275
3. Olimar12345
4. E. Gadd Industries
5. ThatHiddenCharacter
6. SpecsFlyer17
7. XiaoMigros
8. magnet
9. Toby

----------

Olimar was lynched.

It is now Night 3. Night 3 ends in one day, on Friday, August 25 at 7:00 PM Pacific Time (10:00 PM Eastern Time).

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Story has been updated in the second post.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Cheers Olimar—see you in the postgame

TZP 5n
Specs 5n + 1
Xiao 5n + 2
Magnet 5n + 3
Toby 5n + 4

Yes?

[magnet]

Sure thing

[XiaoMigros]

Also very curious why Magnet voting for Olimar prompted Xiao to switch to a Magnet vote.

I went to sleep and didn't want anyone to be insta'ed

[XiaoMigros]

And if y'all ended up voting for magnet, I didn't want my vote to be stopping you

[Toby]

Cheers Olimar—see you in the postgame

TZP 5n
Specs 5n + 1
Xiao 5n + 2
Magnet 5n + 3
Toby 5n + 4

Yes?

Yep

[Toby]

Tomorrow there will be 4 humans alive

Probably in best interest to no lynch so that the wolf removes 1 at random and brings it to a 2v1 lynch of lose

[XiaoMigros]

Good point, I agree

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'll do the 5n+x plan.

Just a rules explanation, if no one votes, is there no lynching? Opposed to being a tie at 0 and it being random?