TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

See Olimar's #334

[Toby]

Olimar claimed PNS night 2, he announced to the wolf that he would swap either me or A#s number to 50 so the wolf should pick that number, and olimar would as well which would result in a double kill.

instead A# was wolfed choosing 35, while Xiao and Specs claimed to choose 46/52. So we know the wolf didn't choose 50.

Hench why you are a suspect as your number would have been randomised

[magnet]

Ok that makes sense. But couldn't the wolf just intentionally not pick 50 to frame me? It seems everyone was well aware of my inactivity.
I can't really prove I'm not the wolf, but I would like to think I wouldn't have forgotten to check the forum if I were the wolf 

Whoever the wolf is, they've done a good job of setting me up. Looking at you Toby 

[Toby]

Yeah I'm the wolf

And I didn't co ordinate with the PNS who claimed to me and the topic just so A# could die, despite putting them at the top of my sus list, and Xiao pming me during night 2 saying they were sus of them

Now I'm left with my 2 weird options for a lynch where 1 was simply afk and the other has been helpful and not entirely wolfy but just simply not enough human for me

[Toby]

If I was the wolf because I would have been forced to stray away from choosing 50 as my number, it would have been best interest to co ordinate with the PNS. And even if Olimar couldn't trust me over Xiao, Olimar could have easily convinced me to follow the plan Xiao gave him and wolf TZP at number 5.

However as olimar didn't die as he wanted it's clear only Xiao was co ordinating with him

Specs said he chose number 52, is that the perfect number to choose when you believe that 1 of 2 people is having their number swapped to 50, but you are actually going to choose a number much less than 50 for the wolfing to confuse things

[Olimar12345]

You don't know what I want!!

[Toby]

You originally wanted me to die I know that, babe!

[TheZeldaPianist275]

And I didn't co ordinate with the PNS who claimed to me and the topic just so A# could die, despite putting them at the top of my sus list, and Xiao pming me during night 2 saying they were sus of them

This doesn't hold up though--there are no targeted wolfings if you don't know the numbers people are picking. So if you are a wolf, I agree that it makes sense for you to keep A# alive to push for a lynch D2, but you might have gotten unlucky and hit her without intending to.

If I was the wolf because I would have been forced to stray away from choosing 50 as my number, it would have been best interest to co ordinate with the PNS. And even if Olimar couldn't trust me over Xiao, Olimar could have easily convinced me to follow the plan Xiao gave him and wolf TZP at number 5.

This is a much more reasonable pushback. I don't think it lets you off the hook entirely though. You certainly COULD have reached out to Olimar and coordinated a different wolfing, but Olimar's original plan let the wolf score a double wolfing without exposing himself--that's what made it clear that his claim was legit. I don't know that it was in the wolf's best interest to directly coordinate with the PNS. Getting a double wolfing without exposing yourself is a sweet deal, but a double wolfing at the cost of a player whose win condition doesn't match yours knowing your identity is much closer to a break-even situation.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

If you put a gun to my head right now, I'd rather lynch Magnet than Toby if only because I'd rather lose to Toby playing intelligently than to Magnet pulling a "Luigi wins by doing nothing", to borrow Specs' phraseology. Olimar is certainly an option as well.

If we shoot for a wolf this day phase and we're wrong, the wolf is DEFINITELY going for a double with Olimar tonight. We're down to 3 living players on Day 3. If we lynch Olimar today, the wolf only gets a single kill Night 3, and there are four players alive on Day 3. Possibly even the wolf gets unlucky and hits one of the candidates we're considering for a lynch right now and makes the Day 3 decision that much easier. But it's riskier, and turns the game into a direct manhunt.

Right now, because I don't feel confident in Magnet over Toby or vice versa, I'd lean toward lynching Olimar today. I am open to being persuaded though.

[Toby]

Why would you lynch olimar and then possibly end up with me you and magnet day 3 and you're unsure of us both?

Use your 2 lynches to lynch 2 of your suspicions don't waste one on olimar. The human still have control of 2 lynches whether he's alive or not.

If he makes it to day 3 in a 2 humans, 1 wolf, 1 PNS, high chance he still hasn't met his win condition and will want to side with humans to ensure his survival

[SpecsFlyer17]

Olimar

This feels the safest. I'm pretty sure Olimar is the PNS, but he could be a potential wolf. Lynching the wolf ends the game today, and lynching the PNS prevents a double kill tonight. Both options are at least somewhat favorable.

Going after the wolf solely is a risk. If we mis-lynch, we kill a human and risk an almost certain double kill tonight. That's three deaths. Even though I'm pretty suspicious of Toby (for the reasons TZP stated), don't think it's worth a mis-lynch. Same logic with magnet.

[Toby]

This doesn't hold up though--there are no targeted wolfings if you don't know the numbers people are picking. So if you are a wolf, I agree that it makes sense for you to keep A# alive to push for a lynch D2, but you might have gotten unlucky and hit her without intending to.

My point was it could have been a targeted wolfing because me more than anyone would have been more inclined to reach out to olimar if I was the wolf and try target who I wanted to he got his win con and remove my biggest threat

[Toby]

Olimar is not the wolf he's literally the PNS

Use the next 2 lynches to vote off 2 of your top wolf suspicions. Olimar is not a valid wolf suspicion

2 humans won't even die tonight it would be the PNS and 1 human at most. And then the game is a lovely 2vs1

[Toby]

Olimar is literally going to try and suicide again tonight so he can win what is the benefit in lynching him

[SpecsFlyer17]

Toby, that's fair. A mis-lynch plus a human+PNS suicide isn't as bad as I thought.

I'm still hung up on why the wolf didn't bite off of Olimar's 50 plan. It is a fact he didn't pick 50. Assuming Olimar is the PNS, A# and Toby had reasons to not pick 50. Everyone else should've taken the bait and got the double kill. Toby and A# were at risk of being exposed by a failed swap to 50, since Olimar was specifically going to target then. With A# dead, that leaves Toby.