TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

I did too

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Well since there are 7 players now we should be choosing numbers using 7n+x

Below would be the new selections

A# Minor 7n+0
TheZeldaPianist275 7n+1
Olimar12345 7n+2
SpecsFlyer17 7n+3
XiaoMigros 7n+4
magnet 7n+5
Toby 7n+6

I don't see an advantage to this over the original plan, but 7 is a prime number so I also don't see a disadvantage, and if everyone is doing it I'll change my number to fit this one

[XiaoMigros]

everyone so far seems to be

[XiaoMigros]

how about you, magnet?

[A# Minor]

does anybody know where magnet is?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Can probably track him down with a magnet of opposite polarity

[Toby]

I don't see an advantage to this over the original plan, but 7 is a prime number so I also don't see a disadvantage, and if everyone is doing it I'll change my number to fit this one

We have more numbers to choose from with this plan making it more random I guess

[XiaoMigros]

Can probably track him down with a magnet of opposite polarity

anything to hear from them tbh...

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'll commit to the 7n+x

[XiaoMigros]

that leaves magnet and olimar...

[A# Minor]

WAIT THE PHASE ENDS IN 2 AND A HALF HOURS


AAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

[XiaoMigros]

and nothing is happening lmao

[SpecsFlyer17]

Not sure there's much to do right now.

We have a strategy for no duplicate picks.

The ball is in Olimar (if he's legit) and the wolf's hand right now.

Olimar, I'd highly suggest you don't suicide. Betray the wolf. Do it.

Do it.

[Toby]

A last minute suspicion list in case I die tonight since it's highly likely

PNS

Olimar


Variable

Magnet
I doubt he is going to come online before phase end, he hasn't been online for a few days. As of writing this post he hasn't been online yet and it's 2 hours 50 mins before phase end (as of drafting this ). Depending on what the number is tonight depends on if he's a wolf or not for me. Either me or A# is getting swapped to 50 apparently so if 50 isn't the death number then I'm going to assume the number was randomised due to magnet being afk. If 50 is the death number it clears magnet. (this is dependant on him actually coming online before phase end)

Sus

A# Minor
I re read A#'s posts and they're the one person this game who I didn't find act like they were actively trying to hunt the wolf through analysing posts/deduction. I gave them a pass initially as I thought they were the PNS but now we realise that's not true. You might wonder why would she false claim PNS and draw unwanted attention to herself as a wolf? Well, the reason could be it wasn't actually her idea - I messaged magnet asking him to fake claim PNS as a distraction to Xiao's claim. He told this to A# and she claimed instead, see this PM exchange between me and A#:

Did anyone give you the idea of claiming or did you just think of that yourself ?

I thought of it myself, but shortly after, magnet sent me the PM that you sent them, which kinda pushed me to do it. @_@

As I mentioned that, I wanted to let you know that I actually discouraged them from false claiming, because I initially found it very strange that you were telling them to do it instead of doing it yourself

So this adds to the possibility that she only claimed as a master plan to "catch the wolf" (look human), and she had PM's to back up this was her intention if she got called out. According to messages from E.Gadd, she admitted she was human to him quite early on rather than holding it out:

Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).

ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.

E.Gadd also messaged me to question my PNS claim but I held my claim strong suspicious that E.Gadd could be a wolf and was waiting for him to admit it to me. A# dropped the roose early - is this because she knew E.Gadd wasn't a wolf and wanted to tell someone her plan was just to aid humans?

SpecsFlyer
In comparison to others I have to put Specs at the top, as I don't find they have as redeeming human qualities as the others below. Specs has been helpful with comments relating to the number plan, and also actually slightly came to my defence, saying my PNS fake claim checks out. However, compared to the name below, they haven't stuck their neck out on the line as much as the others, and reading their posts it all feels very neutral. They make subtle hints and nudges but there's never an accusation.
The below post sums up their tone for me a lot:

It is quiet. Everyone must still be eating breakfast.

My big suspicion stems from the double PNS claim. What are some reasons to falsely claim PNS? I can't really think of any besides being a wolf... do we think either A# or Toby is the wolf?

Asking the question to the audience on if the collective thinks A# or Toby is a wolf, and this will look picky, but if you read all their posts, they all give the same vibes. Not wanting to stray from the crowd, not making any initial or unique accusations, asking rather than pointing. It could just be their playstyle but I have to compare them to the others on this list who I feel take a risk and stick their neck on the line to make an accusation to find a wolf

Leaning Human

Xiao
I initially found Xiao suspicious particularly n1 as I thought a lot of his posts were waffle/filler/jokes and there was at least one moment where I felt like he skipped commenting on the plan or some event that was happening and made a joke instead. But as the game has went on I've found him less sus. I did call him out for not analysing as much as I would have expected him to, but after the call out I made, he did a fair analysis against me and A# and was the first to make an official accusation. He was the first person to call anyone suspicious (THC) ( doing it twice, here and here and the first to make a big call out post here (against me), and he also was the first to fake claim (although jokingly) the PNS, so he gets human points for being risky there

TheZeldaPianist
I was conflicted putting you here but you have done numerous things I would like to say was humany
You objected my number plans with reason, and it really felt you were coming from the best interests of the humans:

This is my objection to your plan Toby--multiple wolfings are much more likely to happen via equidistant number picks to the wolf's number than via exact same number picks

You were taking a close look at the rules and really felt like you were thinking for the towns best interest.  You even suggested a very similar plan to mine here, and referenced the birthday problem here so I do believe your mind was boggling and running wild just like mine trying to think of the best strategy for the humans.

You also make an accusation on me, and believe you were the first to vote me here. Which I do find risky and human behaviour to be the first. You also listened and acknowledged my defence and changed your vote. I'm not sure if that's just easily swayed or I genuinely answered your suspicions. You did also suggest the I am Sparticus! plan to me in PM and the tone you used, excited that Xiao may out the wolf was convincing of you being human:

Dealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?

You do lose a human point though because  I did find it odd you didn't also do the Sparticus claim, or come to my defence for claiming PNS. However, I do realise I may have confused things as I originally did reply saying I probably wouldn't claim as it wouldn't hold weight

[Toby]

I just checked and magnet still not been online