TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

I don't want to read an inordinate amount of meaning into all that, it's certainly possible they're both human, but I don't see better candidates.

I agree, it's not set for sure, especially since we still haven't heard from Olimar...

[A# Minor]

I agree with coordinating, the best step of action is probably to follow Toby's plan again, but for real this time.

Yeah, I'm probably gonna try that too


BUT LET ME HAVE A GOOD NUMBER PLEASE, FOR I AM NUMBER ONE

[A# Minor]

I agree, it's not set for sure, especially since we still haven't heard from Olimar...

I wish pings worked here, so I can spam this thread and ping him like 20 times

[A# Minor]

OK its breakfast time, bye bye

[XiaoMigros]

bon appetit

[SpecsFlyer17]

Some thoughts.

Omilar and Magnet, please give us something lol. Although that would be a funny wolf strategy- set down the controller and walk away while everyone else blows themselves up arguing over suspicions.

On a more serious note, something occurred to me: What does the PNS do if his victory condition is met and he hasn't died? The strategy that we've discussed involves a PNS suicide, but it is very possible that he doesn't die after his victory condition is met. I guess it would be up to him to decide- either take a step back and do nothing, help the humans, or help the wolf (the last two options only if he knows who the wolf is).

A#, you were the first to claim PNS. Regardless of truthfulness, I can see this being a sincere attempt to draw out the wolf. You've mentioned "The wolf should've claimed to me!" multiple times. I read this as either a) you're actually the PNS and you're frustrated that they didn't come forward because it was your path to victory or b) you're a human and you're frustrated that the wolf didn't come forward to team up. What is your stance now? Are you still claiming PNS, or are you admitting to a fake claim in an attempt to draw out the wolf?

Toby, your plan to fake claim PNS checks out to me. Multiple PNS claims prevents the wolf from reaching out, which in turn prevents the PNS+wolf combo. That seems wise. Personally, I don't see that suspicious at all.

Not really sure what to think of E Gadd's behavior thus far. A lot of it involves reading between the lines. If someone with an E Gadd vote wants to explain their choice, I'm all ears.

Xiao and TZP seem to be analyze and reacting to events reasonably- I'd lean human on them.

[Toby]

I think I forgot to respond to this oneI don't think this helps your case, it's possible THC accidentally hooked both of you (wolf and PNS) up. That would also explain how you got to know each other and coordinate later on, assuming that's the case.

You think THC found both the PNS and wolf and paired them together?

[XiaoMigros]

You think THC found both the PNS and wolf and paired them together?

It's possible, I didn't say it was likely. It merely offers an explanation as to E. Gadd's unfounded accepting of you as PNS

[SpecsFlyer17]

Something else that I thought of.

Toby and A#'s actions thus far have centered around the concept of the wolf and PNS teaming up.
Let's think about this from the wolf's perspective. Say a character comes forward with a PNS claim. In what world is it logical for the wolf to claim wolf via PMs to the suspected PNS? How does this "suspected PNS" prove their identity to the wolf? It's a massive gamble for the wolf to claim. The suspected PNS could easily be a human just fishing for the wolf. I suppose it could be proven during a night phase where the PNS can actually swap number according to plan, but is the wolf really going to take that risk? Unless I'm missing something, I can't see the wolf ever risking claiming to a suspected PNS. The PNS is 3rd party- the wolf doesn't have any clues who it is when the game starts.

[XiaoMigros]

Ninja'ed: Reply directed at Toby
And whether you are the PNS or not, it definitely would explain E. Gadd's overenthusiasm in telling you he wouldnt lynch the PNS

[Toby]

I also said I wouldn't lynch the PNS publicly

It's possible, I didn't say it was likely. It merely offers an explanation as to E. Gadd's unfounded accepting of you as PNS

I'm pretty sure he probs said the same stuff to A#

[XiaoMigros]

Replying to Specs
Issue with that is it makes it near impossible to strategise at this point in time. We have to assume some kind of connections to keep the game flowing and figure out what's going on. But you're right, it's worth keeping in mind that wolf and PNS might not even want to work together at all.

For this reason, I'm quite tempted to vote for Olimar or magnet, but I won't do so just yet. I am off to sleep now, and won't be up until after the phase change. If everyone else decides to change their vote that's fine by me!

[XiaoMigros]

I also said I wouldn't lynch the PNS publicly

I'm probably overthinking things, but that 'definitely' is extremely off-putting. It seems weird for him to be so hung up on this, compared to everyone else.
Also, I forgot, have you voted for anyone?

[Toby]

I was the first to vote and I voted for egadd

[XiaoMigros]

Gotcha, thanks