TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[A# Minor]

Am I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.

Which is why the wolf should've claimed to me lol

[SpecsFlyer17]

For those playing along at home, here's the strategy in discussion.

Wolf either claims PNS or attempts to draw out PNS.
Wolf and PNS contact each other.
Wolf gives PNS a name to target, and they both decide on the number.
PNS picks said number and swaps the targeted player to that number as well.
Wolf picks that number, causing both the PNS and targeted player to be wolfed.
PNS meets win condition. Wolf gets a double kill.

Just clarifying for everyone.

[Toby]

Now, the PNS shenanigans going on rn. Along with Xiao, I find it very odd that Toby spent most of Night 1 casting about for the PNS to claim, and then when I tried to discreetly suggest that might not be such a good thing, continued to force the point and say "nah we should only lynch a wolf, I just want to remove the PNS from the lynch pool". Then when I pointed out more explicitly why I thought that was a bad idea, he was like "a ha yeah good point lol"

I do admit I undermined the power of the PNS and wolf finding each other, I didn't see any benefit to it before.

You said you tried to discreetly suggest it might not be a good thing, this was your post:

Toby, what is the advantage you see in having the PNS claim?

That's just a question to me. And even if you want to interpret this as discreetly suggesting it's not a good idea, why not PM me? you've opened PM'd me first already this game. If you think I'm off on the wrong track PM me, you don't have to announce it to the topic, regardless, you did:

I understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?

And I took your word for it there, but can someone please correct me if I'm now wrong, I don't think the PNS and wolf can co-ordinate double wolfings? how can the PNS force a tie if they don't know anyone else's number.

When you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.

Also you're probably the 1 person in this game I'd think should suspect me least for claiming to be the PNS considering you suggested humans claim in a PM to me:

Dealing with this in PMs to avoid further attention—I interpreted Xiao's post as a joke and not a sincere claim. If it is a joke and Xiao is just a regular human but the wolf falls for it that would be an INSANE way to end the game Day 1. However if it is a sincere claim—how do you want to handle it? Do the "I am Spartacus" approach and have multiple other people claim PNS to spook the wolf off?

I said that was a good idea, which relates to why I asked Xiao to double down on his claim and asked if his claim was genuine or not. If it was genuine I wanted other people to claim so the wolf couldn't reach out. If it wasn't genuine I was going to leave it but then A# claimed so I hopped in.

I also sent magnet a message to claim PNS as a further distraction since he hadn't been online yet. But he decided not to after A# did

I was actually surprised you didn't claim, TZP, considering it was your plan after all

[Toby]

For those playing along at home, here's the strategy in discussion.

Wolf either claims PNS or attempts to draw out PNS.
Wolf and PNS contact each other.
Wolf gives PNS a name to target, and they both decide on the number.
PNS picks said number and swaps the targeted player to that number as well.
Wolf picks that number, causing both the PNS and targeted player to be wolfed.
PNS meets win condition. Wolf gets a double kill.

Just clarifying for everyone.

Yes the only double kill I see is from the PNS suiciding - if the wolf and PNS are working together anyway is that even a bad thing if PNS dies?

[XiaoMigros]

I also am very suspicious of E. Gadd, who backed up Toby's PNS claim by claiming to have some PMs with THC that say that THC thought that Toby was actually the PNS all along. It is VERY convenient to claim these PMs exist immediately after THC was bumped off and can no longer verify them.
You're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.

This had me confused also, the immediate believing that Toby is the PNS without any reasonable confirmation. I'm not sure if this inherently makes E. Gadd questionable, and I have doubts about A# Minor too, but it seems we can both agree on Toby.

[Toby]

I mean, that's a risk the wolf would have to weigh carefully. All I'm saying is that I'm suspicious of the way that Toby argued for it and then IMMEDIATELY dropped it once I pushed back against it strongly.
Am I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.

obviously i pushed back you had a good point that it could create a double kill

and I think I was so confused with numbers I somehow agreed

but unless I'm still missing something, the only double kill would be a one off with a human + PNS , which is fine i think?

[Toby]

THC did believe I was the PNS and I didn't really entertain it or comment on it because it was N1 and I didn't know if he was a wolf or not. Here are my PMS from THC:

I don't actually have anything of particular note to discuss yet, I just want this PM to exist for when we do have stuff to discuss (unless, of course, you have anything you wish to discuss right now). As of right now, you are the only one I'm town-leaning on. Not to say I have 100% faith in you or anything, but I still think it's worth putting merit in.

Woo go team town

I know you probably just said that to be funny, but it honestly makes me think you're actually PNS. But since there's really no reason for PNS to side with the wolf, that still means I trust you the most right now.

I'm going to say this now in case I die tonight before I come back online. I fully believe you are PNS baiting for the wolf to try and claim it. Am I wrong? Probably. But still, that is what my gut is telling me. I suppose there isn't much of a reason for me to tell you this, but I at least want it to be known in case I die. If I do die and you aren't wolf, please win the game for my honor.

Lol I'm not the PNS. the wolf would not claim it right now that would just get them killed. I fully believe it's in the PNS best interest to claim

[Toby]

How does me and e gadd working together make sense? What do you think happened?

A# Claims PNS
I claim PNS

e gadd messages both as he is (apparently now) the real PNS. But he is able to make the deduction that I'm actually a wolf and now we are both working together?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Eh. The human+PNS double kill may not be as powerful as we thought, but I don't think it should be entirely undermined. For every double kill the wolf gets, a phase of the game gets shortened. That could potentially be a lynching that the wolf doesn't have to deal with. If I were the wolf, that's a risk that sounds fairly enticing, especially if I didn't have to pry too hard to get the PNS to come forward. Add that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.

[XiaoMigros]

I understand this rationale, but doesn't the PNS claiming also provide the wolf with a potential ally? I agree with you that the wolf is weak in this game. If the PNS claims, doesn't that incentivize the wolf to privately contact the PNS and coordinate a double wolfing, which advantages both teams?

When you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.

This seems like a general strategy remark that concerns everyone though, I don't see a compelling reason why that should be kept to PMs only.

[Toby]

I literally counter claimed a PNS claim. How am I trying to find the PNS by doing that that makes no sense at all. I thought A# was the PNS and I counter claimed so the wolf didn't know who to reach out to.

[A# Minor]

Eh. The human+PNS double kill may not be as powerful as we thought, but I don't think it should be entirely undermined. For every double kill the wolf gets, a phase of the game gets shortened. That could potentially be a lynching that the wolf doesn't have to deal with. If I were the wolf, that's a risk that sounds fairly enticing, especially if I didn't have to pry too hard to get the PNS to come forward. Add that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.

WHICH IS WHY THE WOLF SHOULD'VE CLAIMED TO ME

[XiaoMigros]

Add that to the fact that the wolf gets to specifically hand pick the human to kill, and I think this deal sounds better and better.

This to me is the main benefit; the wolf and PNS can choose who gets killed

[Toby]

When you said that I found it odd that you revealed it to the topic, again I feel like you should have kept it to yourself.

This seems like a general strategy remark that concerns everyone though, I don't see a compelling reason why that should be kept to PMs only.

because he openly announces a beneficial Wolf/PNS strategy that only comes alive if the PNS claims? Him saying that actually entices the PNS to claim and follow his plan

If he PM'd me I could have stopped pushing for it in topic

[XiaoMigros]

I literally counter claimed a PNS claim. How am I trying to find the PNS by doing that that makes no sense at all.

You knew I wasn't the PNS, and by claiming it for yourself but not as a joke you were trying to get the real PNS to step forward.