TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

Oops, looks like I can't jest in this game

i mean theres nothing wrong with some humor but 1) it can be hard to tell and 2) doesnt really help you get out of a situation, just makes you look worse

[SpecsFlyer17]

The debate over whether it is beneficial for the wolf to draw out the PNS is interesting.

The wolf can either play lowkey and go for random kills, or attempt to draw out the PNS and go for a targeted kill.

I see benefits to both.

If the wolf teams up with the PNS, he gets a double kill that involves a targeted kill at the expense of being slightly suspicious. The PNS has no downside to team with the wolf, since the PNS can meet the victory condition easily.

If the wolf goes random, he stays under the radar but may take an extra phase or two to win.

[Toby]

Also for those interested I made a personal note of who followed the number plan, what they picked etc:

1. A# Minor - 35 - didn't follow plan
2. TheZeldaPianist275 - 10 - did follow the plan and said they would
3. Olimar12345 - 1 - didn't follow plan
4. E. Gadd Industries - 22 - didn't follow plan
6. SpecsFlyer17 - did follow the plan and said they would
7. XiaoMigros - 42 - did follow the plan and said they would
8. magnet - 0 - didn't follow the plan
9. Toby - 35 - did follow the plan and said they would

I was surprised E.gadd didn't follow the plan and wasn't around at phase end. But I wasn't sure if a wolf would admit they went against the grain

[XiaoMigros]

How can you agree that the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial to them, but then think withholding information on a human's plan trying to divert the wolf from finding the PMS is suspicious?

This has got nothing to do with a plan, A# Minor responded with «I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. » when I questioned your immediate reaction of voting E. Gadd after him sharing some information about you both.

[Toby]

The debate over whether it is beneficial for the wolf to draw out the PNS is interesting.

The wolf can either play lowkey and go for random kills, or attempt to draw out the PNS and go for a targeted kill.

I see benefits to both.

If the wolf teams up with the PNS, he gets a double kill that involves a targeted kill at the expense of being slightly suspicious. The PNS has no downside to team with the wolf, since the PNS can meet the victory condition easily.

If the wolf goes random, he stays under the radar but may take an extra phase or two to win.

I don't believe the PNS and wolf working together can get a double kill any easier than they can if they don't  work together

the only double kill I see is if the PNS swaps someone to match their own, or someone the PNS/wolf know the number someone else is picking

[Toby]

This has got nothing to do with a plan, A# Minor responded with «I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread. » when I questioned your immediate reaction of voting E. Gadd after him sharing some information about you both.

Because I, and I assume A# think the information that egadd shared could be damaging to the humans, and beneficial to the wolf.

[Toby]

Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).

ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.

if the above is true how is revealing it worth it more beneficial than not?

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I am back from ye olde road trip. Lots of stuff to respond to here.

First of all, I know this is fairly far afield from what we're talking about here re: the PNS, but Olimar and Magnet, your number picks were not helping anyone last night. One of the very first things we talked about was NOT skewing toward the extremes, which would put people at risk of doubling up and potentially allowing for multiple kills.

Now, the PNS shenanigans going on rn. Along with Xiao, I find it very odd that Toby spent most of Night 1 casting about for the PNS to claim, and then when I tried to discreetly suggest that might not be such a good thing, continued to force the point and say "nah we should only lynch a wolf, I just want to remove the PNS from the lynch pool". Then when I pointed out more explicitly why I thought that was a bad idea, he was like "a ha yeah good point lol"

I also am very suspicious of E. Gadd, who backed up Toby's PNS claim by claiming to have

some PMs with THC

that say that THC thought that Toby was actually the PNS all along. It is VERY convenient to claim these PMs exist immediately after THC was bumped off and can no longer verify them.

I don't believe the PNS and wolf working together can get a double kill any easier than they can if they don't  work together

the only double kill I see is if the PNS swaps someone to match their own, or someone the PNS/wolf know the number someone else is picking

You're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.

TL;DR: making the identity of the PNS public knowledge does NOT help the humans, and Toby has been the one pushing for that the hardest. E. Gadd, after N1's conclusion, claimed to have unverifiable knowledge that corroborated that Toby was in fact the PNS. It looks like they coordinated behind the scenes for this. I think it's likely that Toby is a wolf and E. Gadd is the PNS. I would be happy lynching either one.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also E. Gadd why'd you say this game is quiet?? 9 pages of activity night 1 is close to a forum record probably

[A# Minor]

Because I, and I assume A# think the information that egadd shared could be damaging to the humans, and beneficial to the wolf.

Yup. I was really trying there

i mean theres nothing wrong with some humor but 1) it can be hard to tell and 2) doesnt really help you get out of a situation, just makes you look worse

That was pure sarcasm, not me trying to get out of it. What's said has been said...

[A# Minor]

Well I think E. Gadd might be the wolf but my gut instinct isn't always right. If Toby was a wolf then why would he claim PNS, possibly also to bait the wolf?

[A# Minor]

Overuse of the word "wolf" but idc

[SpecsFlyer17]

TZP, how does the PNS and wolf working together benefit the wolf though? They get a double kill (PNS and targeted human), but then what? The wolf is on their own, and probably looks suspicious after trying to draw out the PNS earlier.

Not necessarily debating you, just curious your thoughts.

[Toby]

You're undermining your own argument here, and EXPLICITLY spelling out for the thread exactly how the wolf and the PNS could each benefit from knowing each other's identity.

I said I see how they can benefit from each other
I also said I don't see how them working together can create a double kill

where am I undermining my own argument

[TheZeldaPianist275]

probably looks suspicious after trying to draw out the PNS earlier.

I mean, that's a risk the wolf would have to weigh carefully. All I'm saying is that I'm suspicious of the way that Toby argued for it and then IMMEDIATELY dropped it once I pushed back against it strongly.

I said I see how they can benefit from each other
I also said I don't see how them working together can create a double kill

where am I undermining my own argument

Am I misreading? Creating a double kill benefits them both BECAUSE it creates a double kill--that's my point.