TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

you just highlighted the part I'm confused about- how is that even supposed to happen

[A# Minor]

So seems like all the humans have to be dead and they end up winning with the wolf

[XiaoMigros]

also why do you have to vote at all, im still confused about that too

[A# Minor]

Ninja'd— everything went wrong in that post so kindly ignore it

[XiaoMigros]

So seems like all the humans have to be dead and they end up winning with the wolf

gotcha, thanks

[XiaoMigros]

Ninja'd— everything went wrong in that post so kindly ignore it

its fine haha

[A# Minor]

NINJAD AGAIN


If you don't, you get a phantom vote, and IIRC 3 phantoms means you're out of the game

[XiaoMigros]

Ah okay lol

[XiaoMigros]

lynching the PNS doesn't really help the humans all that much.

Well in that case...

What benefit does the wolf have of falsely claiming? I can't think of a whole lot. The real PNS will likely also claim, and that just raises suspicion and increases the likelihood of getting lynched.

...I think I might have just solved the puzzle, or at least part of it:

Yesterday, Toby sent me this DM:

Hi I assumed your PNS claim in the topic was a joke but since the PNS actually claiming could be damaging to humans if they work with the wolf, I think you should double down on your claim and I'm just gonna claim too to mess things about more lol

He indirectly asked me if I was the PNS or not, to which I replied:

hey! it was half a joke and half just an attempt to get things moving a little, but if you claim too that sounds good enough for me to unclaim lol

Clearly, Toby has a stronger intention than most to figure out who the PNS is. As for why that is, allow me to explain the strategy behind this:

First off, just so it's clear, If the wolf and the PNS can find eachother, the PNS can win next night and the wolf gets 100% control over the wolfings

i.e. it's beneficial for both the wolf and the PNS to find out who's who, so they can coordinate. The wolf picks a number, the PNS picks a person and sets that persons number to the one chosen by the wolf.
Now, the PNS could still decide to play town and then the wolf is screwed, but winning as town is significantly more difficult and doesn't have a strong benefit (winning is winning, after all).

This means, wolf!Toby has an incentive to find the PNS and give him control over his kills. He tried to ask me if I was the PNS, but not entirely directly so I don't get suspicious oops.

I retracted my claim shortly after.

town!Toby however would have no reason to contact me privately, and could simply claim PNS publicly to offset my possible 'mistake' of letting the wolf reach the PNS. That said, I may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, I'm not sure if asking me publicly would have been a good idea.

PNS!Toby has no reason at all to ask me if I'm the PNS, unless it's as some sort of bluff. Either way, this is mostly irrelevant, as will be evident by the end of this post.

So, as town, to win, what can we do? Well, either A# Minor or Toby is almost certainly the PNS, since they're the only two who claimed it. More likely than not, it's A# Minor. As for the wolf, for the reasons I explained above, Toby is currently my top contender.
Therefore I propose lynching both of them, probably Toby first but it doesn't matter that much.
Why both of them? If we miss the first night, we can as good as guarantee the wolf and PNS will be working together, allowing them to pick off the most experienced and knowledgeable players. As towns we aren't inherently against the PNS, but if they are helping the wolf then getting rid of them is a good idea.

TL;DR: Toby probably wolf, A# probably PNS, lynch both

[XiaoMigros]

Also, it really would be nice to hear from olimar, e. gadd, tzp, magnet, you guys have been very quiet

[E. Gadd Industries]

Still thinking about why two people claimed PNS.

What benefit does the wolf have of falsely claiming? I can't think of a whole lot. The real PNS will likely also claim, and that just raises suspicion and increases the likelihood of getting lynched.

How about a human falsely claiming? My question is why? Its going to look suspicious, and lynching the PNS doesn't really help the humans all that much.

Also why did A# vote for themself? Interesting decision....

It is a very risky play to make a fake claim like that, but after PMing with both Toby and A# Minor, I'm not so convinced that either of them is a wolf unlike my previous message. A human claiming like that is a good way to raise suspicions, certainly, but I've seen claims like that really get conversation going and people's colors revealed pretty quickly thereafter. Granted, this game has been rather quiet.

Generally, my apologies for the quiet on my end, classes start for me today so I've been getting ready for that (and there's also just a lot of messy in the class I'm going to be teaching this semester). wait no, i was eating breakfast

So as of now, I'm also going to safety on myself, E. Gadd Industries, but will try to get back to the game with an actual vote before phase change.

Currently, my head is still swimming with the numbers business so I'm going to move away from that and focus more on the other aspects of the game. I still am of the mindset we should try to help the PNS win with town (and I'm willing to take the fall for that to happen). As for who the PNS is, I'm pretty convinced that it's Toby at this point. Otherwise, the real PNS needs to speak up now.

Thoughts on individuals:
-Toby: PNS
-A# Minor: Human (from PMs)
-Specs: Generally town lean, has been trying to strategize where possible and attempting to understand the NinSheetMusic brand of TWG (and doing quite well)
-Xiao: Slight town lean, but nothing major. Has been talking.
-TZP: Not sure
-Olimar: Ehhhhhhhh very slightly town, but he needs to talk more to clarify that
-Magnet: Sick
-THC: Dead
-E. Gadd: Busy with prepping for school, but has been PMing various folks (although that's been relatively fruitless aside from my reads on Toby and A# Minor)
-BDS: Needs to eat breakfast sometimes


I'm also going to look back at what people participated in the plan made and who didn't (and why), which may influence my current reads. I can't remember who did what for that. Would do now but I have a meeting with a potential collaborator in 15 mins!


EDIT: ALL THE ABOVE IS NULL. I GOT NINJA'D 11 TIMES AND XIAO JUST DROPPED A BOMBSHELL

[XiaoMigros]

i just realised my message reply says quote from toby (i had to copy+paste the quote formatting) but it is from me just so thats clear

[E. Gadd Industries]

Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).

ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.

[XiaoMigros]

direct quotes would be greatly appreciated

[E. Gadd Industries]

Crap I can't read. Toby said he *hasn't* spoken with A#

Jeez, I'm trying to get as much done as possible in the limited time I have, and I need to read better.
That's why i went to uni for biology