TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[XiaoMigros]

also i failed statistics in high school so i wont be much help with the math stuff haha

ill read through the stuff here later im busy rn

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

If anyone doubts my math here, I invite you to take a look at the birthday problem.

Ironically enough, I was thinking of this exact math problem. I was just remembering it backwards. That's my bad.

[A# Minor]

Math @_@

[Toby]

Do you guys chat in a discord or is it all on the forum

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Do you guys chat in a discord or is it all on the forum

To make sure to be inclusive for players such as A# who are not present on Discord, we are doing forum-only for the time being.

[XiaoMigros]

in general for other stuff we do chat in a discord tho

[Toby]

gone are the days we used to all have to go onto Mibbit at the same time to chat

[TheZeldaPianist275]

RIP Tinychat. Tears in rain.

[A# Minor]

why you make me feel bad


why

[A# Minor]

Also I will finish reading this and (hopefully) give some content when I'm done with school (taking a short break atm)

[Toby]

I'm not convinced the best strategy is for us all just to hope for the best and pick our own numbers

[E. Gadd Industries]

Wowie math is hard
Like bats are simpler

You only changed your idea after I called you out on it. Your original suggestion was ranges. It wasn't just my understanding, it was your exact words.

So this is interesting, and I think I follow Toby's reasoning for explaining it like he did in the post you quoted, but I also could see it being easily interpretable in the way you did.

Unrelated to that immediate post but still important: with the possibility of equidistant wolfings, is it even worth it to try and coordinate? That math that TZP did bringing it to 25% likely two people would pick the same number, is that including the probability the wolf picks the same number as those two?

[E. Gadd Industries]

I'm not convinced the best strategy is for us all just to hope for the best and pick our own numbers

It may not be, but trying to covertly coordinate 8 players to distribute their numbers unevenly (to prevent equidistance) but evenly (to minimize chance of multiple wolfings) would be difficult without some sort of information being given to the wolf. I'm not good at these sorts of math games, but I'll try to think it over some more to see if I can't come up with some something that could work.

[E. Gadd Industries]

Not to mention that we'd need to factor in that a town-counting third party has a vested interest in causing shenanigans here; they would be very unlikely to bring about multiple wolfings, but it's still a possibility just as much as multiple wolfings happening on their own.

[Toby]

TZP seems good at math so I personally nominate him to solve the game