TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[Toby]

lol yeah it only working on humans is the point

It's a fun strategy but it would involve someone sacrificing themselves which I'm sure no one wants to do for a 1/7 chance of catching a wolf - but someone has to die anyway lol

[Toby]

I think the number swapper should just claim, there's no reason to lynch them. And if they don't claim now and are the target of a lynch later and claim their role after receiving votes we'd be inclined to believe it could be a wolf in a last chance effort to live and lynch them anyway:

At least if they claim now they can't be counterclaimed and we can trust them

[TheZeldaPianist275]

On the road for a wedding but will hopefully weigh in on this before phase end

[SpecsFlyer17]

I haven't thought of any meaningful strategy involving the PNS yet, but I can't think of any advantage the wolf receives if its identity is know. I think I support the PNS claiming, but let me think on that for a bit.

[Toby]

Are you thinking because you're the PNS?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Haha no, I am not the PNS.

[XiaoMigros]

sounds like something the PNS would say...

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Toby, I track with your reasoning about everyone picking numbers that are a set distance apart! I think that if that guarantees one wolfing, that would probably be the way to go. The catch is that it's easy for people to defect if they're not on board with the plan/uncomfortable with everyone knowing which number they picked, and also that it makes it trivially easy for the PNS to switch someone's number to get a double kill. If we pursue your plan here, there's no reason for the PNS to claim—they can get a win night 1 without revealing themselves.

Here's my suggestion—it's a variant on your plan. What if we have someone pick a number (probably 50 to get it dead center) and have everyone pick a number a set distance from it?
So in this case
I pick 50
Specs picks 49 or 51
Toby picks 48 or 52
Olimar picks 46 or 54
E. Gadd picks 43 or 57
A# picks 38 or 62
THC picks 30 or 70
etc.

The PNS can conceivably get a kill off this, but it's not by doubling up kills. And while it's definitely still possible for the wolf to get a double (eg Toby picks 48, Olimar picks 54, wolf picks 51), it's highly unlikely because the wolf will not know whether everyone picked their number above or below 50.

If this has any obvious holes please do point them out—I'm quite distracted right now. But I think this is a way to combine best of what Toby and THC are saying. Namely, organize in a way that minimizes the chance of a double kill while also giving up the minimum amount of public information.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Guilty as charged  It was just a typo for transparency to the other players. Won't happen again!

also im gonna cyberbully you for this specs

[E. Gadd Industries]

Here's my suggestion—it's a variant on your plan. What if we have someone pick a number (probably 50 to get it dead center) and have everyone pick a number a set distance from it?
So in this case
I pick 50
Specs picks 49 or 51
Toby picks 48 or 52
Olimar picks 46 or 54
E. Gadd picks 43 or 57
A# picks 38 or 62
THC picks 30 or 70
etc.

This could work^ I get that this is an example, but one thing I'd caution you is to make sure all the gaps between numbers between players are odd. In this example, if Toby picks 52 & Olimar goes 54, the wolf could still get a double kill by choosing 53.

[XiaoMigros]

making sure all the gaps are odd would be quite the challenge

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Odd gaps doesn't get rid of that risk:

TZP 50
E. Gadd 49 or 51
Olimar 48 or 52
Specs 47 or 53

E. Gadd picks 49, Olimar picks 52, Specs picks 47, wolf picks 48, gg.

It's impossible to guarantee every gap between every player is odd because adding odd numbers together results in an even number.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Doesn't the phase end tonight? Cause I'm going to bed now and I already put my number in forever ago. I probably won't be around again before phase change.

[XiaoMigros]

p sure it ends in 6 hours

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Yeah, so even if everyone manages to agree to a plan before then, I will be asleep. If not everyone follows the plan, then attempting the plan would probably end up worse off than not. Just because someone being random throws the whole thing into chaos.