TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[A# Minor]

I say we should just pick random numbers and see where it takes us. The wolf/Phantom Number Swapper could probably figure us out if we stick to a certain set. We wouldn't want to make things easier for them.


~Inside the Half-Dead Mind of A# Minor~

[A# Minor]

Woo, I started a new page with my wonderful comment

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

They do say that the moment you show your hand is the moment you have lost.

"Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."
-Sun Tzu, The Art of War

[XiaoMigros]

"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

"misquote the art of war so people think you know what youre talking about"
- sun tzu, the art of war

It's not a misquote, and I do know what I'm talking about. Any plan we come up with here in a public space, regardless of how sound it may be, will be seen by the wolf. Which means that no matter what plan we attempt to come up with (in regards of picking numbers, at least), the wolf will be able to come up with a counterplan. Just cause I'm an annoying know-it-all doesn't mean I can't back myself up. (I'm not saying that facetiously, I know I'm annoying.)

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

And I was quoting Sun Tzu because I had Technoblade on my mind, may he rest in peace

[Toby]

Any plan we come up with here in a public space, regardless of how sound it may be, will be seen by the wolf. Which means that no matter what plan we attempt to come up with (in regards of picking numbers, at least), the wolf will be able to come up with a counterplan.

thats so negative !

[SpecsFlyer17]

Apologies for the absence last night and this morning.

I've thought a lot about this, and I've yet to think of any meaningful strategy on picking numbers.

As discussed, if no one announces any of their choices, the wolf has no information and cannot target anyone. However, we do run the risk of a double (or more) wolfing as a result of a duplicate pick or equidistant picks.

I did a little research, and here's what a found. The birthday problem can be modeled by the equation: p(different) = e^-((n^2)/(2T)), where n is the number of people, and T is the total choices. Subbing in 8 for n and 100 for T (8 humans, 100 numbers), we get p(different) = e^((8^2)/(2(100))), which gives p(different) = .73. That means there is 27% chance two (or more) people pick the same number. That seems high, and at first thought, I don't want to take the chance.

However, there are some other things to consider. First, two people picking the same number isn't costly unless the wolf's choice is closest to it. I don't know that stats on that, but I'm sure it dramatically lowers the risk from 28%. Second, everyone picking different numbers does not defend against equidistant picks. I have no idea how to model that statistically. But again, that's only relevant if the wolf picks a number between the equidistant picks.

All that being said, I do like the track that Toby is on of avoiding duplicate picks. Having each player assigned a ones digit (as suggested) does accomplish that. Furthermore, I'm not convinced it really gives the wolf that much information, if any at all. So what if the wolf knows that my number will end in 5. I could pick 5, 65, 85, etc.

[Toby]

Even if we all pick random numbers is the probability not still the same for their to be a tie with equidistant picks

[Olimar12345]

Hi i just remmebered this and am glad I didn not miss a phase!!

TOBY HI OMG ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN

ig ill got read the PAGES ive missed already .-.

[SpecsFlyer17]

And just to be clear, I interpreted the strategy to be each player gets an assigned ones digit, while each player picks the tens digit and keeps it to themselves. For example, I get assigned a 5, so I pick 5, 15, 25, etc. I fail to see how this runs an increased risk of equidistant picks.

[Toby]

And just to be clear, I interpreted the strategy to be each player gets an assigned ones digit, while each player picks the tens digit and keeps it to themselves. For example, I get assigned a 5, so I pick 5, 15, 25, etc. I fail to see how this runs an increased risk of equidistant picks.

yeah that was pretty much my plan

[Toby]

Hi i just remmebered this and am glad I didn not miss a phase!!

TOBY HI OMG ITS NICE TO SEE YOU AGAIN

ig ill got read the PAGES ive missed already .-.

heyooooo nice to see you too

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

I still would rather choose my number randomly and don't plan on being convinced otherwise. However, I would also like to state for the record that I currently believe that Toby is town. As much as I have been refuting his points, I also don't believe he would be arguing for them so heavily this early on as a wolf. To me it reads more as town trying to convince the rest of town that this plan is the best course of action (even if I don't agree).

[Olimar12345]

I'm not sure if it really matters too much if we organize our numbers. Leaning on random picking unless I'm convinced before then ig