TWG CXV: Just a Numbers Game

[E. Gadd Industries]

No I've not spoken to A#

Here's this, now please imagine me sprinting across campus to make this meeting
OKBYE

[XiaoMigros]

Crap I can't read. Toby said he *hasn't* spoken with A#

Unfortunately I don't know the context for this but it seems like a peculiar thing to mention

[A# Minor]

Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).

ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.

bruh


WHY

[Toby]

Okay now that I've had time to fully read, A# Minor has also informed me that she "fake claimed" to try and bait the wolf, as a human (supposedly).

ALSO Toby has told me he's been PMing with A# Minor and A# told me she's been PMing with the PNS (both independently, obviously). I can pull direct quotes after the meeting but I seriously gotta go now.

Why did you say this

egadd

[Toby]

still catching up and will respond after work

[XiaoMigros]

egadd

voting egadd is a really weird way to respond to this situation but okay

[A# Minor]

Actually I think it's a perfectly reasonable response. I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread.


Besides, what if I said all of that to mess with him? Hmm?

[A# Minor]

^ that was supposed to be four question marks

[Toby]

Well in that case...
...I think I might have just solved the puzzle, or at least part of it:

Yesterday, Toby sent me this DM:
He indirectly asked me if I was the PNS or not, to which I replied:

Clearly, Toby has a stronger intention than most to figure out who the PNS is. As for why that is, allow me to explain the strategy behind this:

First off, just so it's clear, If the wolf and the PNS can find eachother, the PNS can win next night and the wolf gets 100% control over the wolfings

i.e. it's beneficial for both the wolf and the PNS to find out who's who, so they can coordinate. The wolf picks a number, the PNS picks a person and sets that persons number to the one chosen by the wolf.
Now, the PNS could still decide to play town and then the wolf is screwed, but winning as town is significantly more difficult and doesn't have a strong benefit (winning is winning, after all).

This means, wolf!Toby has an incentive to find the PNS and give him control over his kills. He tried to ask me if I was the PNS, but not entirely directly so I don't get suspicious oops.

I retracted my claim shortly after.

town!Toby however would have no reason to contact me privately, and could simply claim PNS publicly to offset my possible 'mistake' of letting the wolf reach the PNS. That said, I may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, I'm not sure if asking me publicly would have been a good idea.

PNS!Toby has no reason at all to ask me if I'm the PNS, unless it's as some sort of bluff. Either way, this is mostly irrelevant, as will be evident by the end of this post.

So, as town, to win, what can we do? Well, either A# Minor or Toby is almost certainly the PNS, since they're the only two who claimed it. More likely than not, it's A# Minor. As for the wolf, for the reasons I explained above, Toby is currently my top contender.
Therefore I propose lynching both of them, probably Toby first but it doesn't matter that much.
Why both of them? If we miss the first night, we can as good as guarantee the wolf and PNS will be working together, allowing them to pick off the most experienced and knowledgeable players. As towns we aren't inherently against the PNS, but if they are helping the wolf then getting rid of them is a good idea.

TL;DR: Toby probably wolf, A# probably PNS, lynch both

While the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial. It's not beneficial enough for the wolf to put their neck on the line to find them. I personally would not be too bothered if I was wolf and my kills stayed random. Them being random would not incentivise me to false claim or send sneaky messages to try and find the PMS just for my kills to be controlled.

I asked if your claim was genuine or not because as explained, even if it wasn't, I wanted you to still claim it. If it was genuine, then I'm sure you would have clarified that in the topic.

[XiaoMigros]

If it was genuine, then I'm sure you would have clarified that in the topic.

I already said it wasn't, see #152

[XiaoMigros]

I don't get the point of sharing absolutely everything with the thread.

Forgive me for thinking that withholding relevant information is suspicious

[Toby]

I already said it wasn't, see #152

I PM'd you before that post

[XiaoMigros]

Besides, what if I said all of that to mess with him? Hmm?

Mess with who? E. Gadd? If anything that makes you even more suspicious

[Toby]

Forgive me for thinking that withholding relevant information is suspicious

How can you agree that the wolf finding the PMS is beneficial to them, but then think withholding information on a human's plan trying to divert the wolf from finding the PMS is suspicious?

[A# Minor]

Mess with who? E. Gadd? If anything that makes you even more suspicious

Oops, looks like I can't jest in this game