twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo

[E. Gadd Industries]

Then I got this from Kaiveran late in the night phase, right the hell out of nowhere:

Oh now that's curious. When was that message sent? Because late N2, I also got a PM from Kaiveran saying (among many things) that I am the one they have the strongest town read on. Hang on and I'll grab it (I would combine it if I was on PC but alas... mobile is so much more difficult :') )

[A# Minor]

literally anyone could do that though

I know that, I'm trying to say that it sounds like a pretty silly move. What exactly would you gain by wolfing an inactive player? Oh yeah, nothing. It's hard for me to see anyone else doing something like that
my sharpness seems to be showing itself

[E. Gadd Industries]

Actually it makes perfect sense for a wolf to do that at this point^ get an inactive player and it contributes exactly nothing to the remaining players' knowledge, and with everyone at each other's throats, the wolves have us right where they want us, praying we don't see through it.

Also, I forgot that quotes also have a timestamp, so we'll be able to see timestamps in Kaiveran's PM to me vs to TZP about suspecting me. One moment...

[E. Gadd Industries]

Well, this sucks. I was hoping to get here much earlier than I did, and now I might not get a response from you at all before the Night is out.

But since wasting any more time is unwise, let me lay out what exactly my plan was for this game.

Basically, since I wasn't feeling that the PM system here was of good use for solving people out from zero knowledge like IM was, I figured it would be a better idea to let examination of the publicly provided info on Day 1 determine my town candidates, and then use PMs to try to put heads together with one of them to solve the game. And since you're the person I feel most confident in this game, that's you.

Of course, this runs the risk of backfiring hard if you're a wolf, but given your D1 I'm pretty confident in the odds there. If the gamble still comes up snake eyes, welp, 'tis only a game.

But in the interest of making that game as sporting a contest as possible: I wanna know where your head is at with regard to the possible wolf pairs here.

Over time and experienced gained in other scenes, I've developed a kind of RPS interpretation of interactions that I've found useful for getting to the meat of things, but if you have any alternative methods, I'd like to hear about them. This game being a Lemmy's Last Sheet nostalgia trip, with the general habits and attitudes formed from the normally flipless and OC format, I believe the wolves are either Ignoring or Defending each other by default. I haven't seen any responses to pressure that have led anyone to go on the Attack (outside of Olimar, who is obviously not a wolf now) but maybe you've picked up on something I've missed?
While we're on the subject: Olimar flipping town makes me feel slightly better about 36. But again, I haven't been able to review the game with the detail I think an impending LyLo deserves, and I might not be able to with all I've got on my plate. Myself, I wanna at least focus in on Xiao's interactions toNight, because I feel like we've basically been ships passing in the night all game – my cruise-senses are tingling. 

Here's Kaiveran's PM to me. Let's see how the times look...

[E. Gadd Industries]

Assuming that I'm reading correctly, it appears that Kaiveran would've sent their PM to TZP very shortly after me. I suppose they thought they were poking the beast by PMing me and were lying to my face from the start?

[XiaoMigros]

I know that, I'm trying to say that it sounds like a pretty silly move. What exactly would you gain by wolfing an inactive player? Oh yeah, nothing. It's hard for me to see anyone else doing something like that

Man I love how everyone this game has been so respectful towards me...

[XiaoMigros]

It seems like Kaiveran has been playing an interesting game here, I'm curious as to how they will explain it

[E. Gadd Industries]

You and me both^

[A# Minor]

^ Thirded...? (I can't say seconded)

[E. Gadd Industries]

If Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth, 3 different people thought they were on the chopping block night 2. But it's not possible that Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth (not unless Xiao and A# are wolves togetehr , which is close to an impossibility in my mind). And given what A# and I had discussed I was at least a little more inclined to trust Kai over E. Gadd. So I was 100% ready to push for an E. Gadd lynch today if I survived. And then 36 died.

Wolfing 36 is literally the polar opposite end of the spectrum from wolfing BDS. Because 36 was so laconic with his posts, there's comparatively not much information at all to be gleaned from his wolfing--he didn't really array himself either with or against anybody. So right now I'd like to hear from both E. Gadd and Kai exactly what it was they were talking about in PMs that made Kai so concerned about getting wolfed, because I was very surprised to see 36's obituary in the day update, and I'm wondering if someone made a last-second switch in wolfing target.

Ah, so then you are interested in the PMs? Let me grab my response, one sec

[E. Gadd Industries]

Hey hey! I wanted to message you, too, but then got swept up in birthday shenanigans and a Barbienheimer trip that ate up my entire afternoon and evening.

I agree that figuring out a game plan is good. We have to have some kind of planning, so this will be instrumental in town success. So here are my thoughts:

Firstly, I'm now as fully convinced as I can be of A#'s humanity (it never really is a certainty until the card flips) compared to when the game started and D1 got going in full swing.
Now, I'm not as convinced of TZP's innocence. I don't lean suspicious of him as strongly as I did, but in the absence of any better candidates, I could see a case for him.
The BIGGEST suspicion I have is Xiao at the moment, because the level of effort is not matching the level of experience they claim to have. Everything has been half-hearted, generally disengaged, and regardless of what role they have, they aren't playing in any way that helps the town.

So then the question becomes, who is Xiao's partner? I agree that there doesn't seem to be any attacking, following your guide. But I also don't even really see any Defending. If Xiao is indeed a wolf, the strategy the wolves have come up with has to 100% be Ignoring. Given that this is 36's first game whatsoever, I could see a careful wolf pairing with a not-caring whatsoever wolf. But I'm inclined to agree that I imagine his agreeing with Olimar D1 wasn't an overtly wolfy thing. I read it as an attempt at eliminating possibilities for a D1 lynch to maximize chances of hitting a wolf. There hasn't been a ton of interaction, though, between Xiao and 36. Granted, there hasn't been a ton of interaction with Xiao and anyone, but that brings up the other possible pairing that I didn't think about until I just now reviewed the game thread:

Xiao and TZP have had fairly interesting interactions, where Xiao will make a (half-hearted) point and TZP would respond with slight push-back, but nothing too substantial. And then Xiao tried to vote for TZP at the start of the night phase, citing "weird vibes" as their main suspicion of him. That... just no. I think that's our strongest bet for wolf pair at the moment, and from that, I believe Xiao would be the better of the two for a D2 lynch since there's basically already a case against them. We could also effectively force TZP's hand and really see what he has to say (if anything, he seems to be trying at least somewhat to distance himself without making it obvious).

Regarding your last comment, it seems you and I are of the same mindset. Any interaction attempted with Xiao would be good, because they are resisting it the most. Whether or not they'll respond is another story entirely... but I hesitate to call them out quite yet before the N2 ends because I don't want to increase my chances of "getting got" so to speak.
...although idk, being direct and then being offed would look might suspicious on Xiao's part, and/or if they aren't a wolf, the wolves could still target me to make Xiao look suspicious. Layers upon layers :')

At this point, it's late, so I'm probably gonna send this PM and log out for the night and will technically be around some 30 mins after phase change, but I won't be able to respond to anything of substance, just seeing the result. But if we both survive the night, orchestrated efforts on getting Xiao to talk will be invaluable.

Commentary to follow

[E. Gadd Industries]

So in this PM, I was very thrown off by the random message toward the end of N2 from a person I was suspicious of, and so while it did seem somewhat town, I knew this could be a wolf play so I just threw suspicion at TZP being paired with Xiao with enough effort to make it... how do I word this? Basically, I was still suspicious of Kaiveran, so I didn't want to put in no effort and make it clear that I suspected them, thus increasing my chances of getting wolfed that night. I also PM'd A# when I read their message, talking about how weird it is (and I can provide PM receipts for that as well if you wish). It seems to me like Kaiveran and I were mutually suspicious of each other and wanted to ensure that someone would investigate the other should we end up dead the next day.

[E. Gadd Industries]

Xiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day. Someone has to be the first person lynched--that's how the game is played. Also, NSM has literally not had a TWG run for five years or something like that, and I thought there was definitely a possibility that people just stand around on Day 1 without saying anything substantive. E. Gadd and A# were saying things like "people should talk more!" and I agreed, so I got the ball rolling. My initial accusation of him was, as you say, weak, because I wanted to see what would happen if I threw him in the hot seat. I have been on the forum with Olimar for literally over a decade and knew he wasn't going to take it lying down, and I wanted some conversation to get going. Then later in the day phase, I felt much better about it (E. Gadd and I discussed this in PMs, please back me up on this) because of the lack of traction it had and also because of that weird thing he said about E. Gadd being a "safe pass".  It was a mislynch, but that is such a common Day 1 occurrence I really don't see how you can say that's wolfy behavior. As E. Gadd pointed out, I was also not the only one who was suspicious of him. It really wasn't that much of an aggressive way to start, but even if it had been, that is still not necessarily wolfish.

Agree with all of this, even more convinced now that it's Xiao and Kaiveran. Even Kaiveran themselves said they didn't interact much with Xiao and that they've been "ships passing in the night".

But yes, I can back you up on your statement about your general thoughts on Olimar as the day phase progressed. Although, with the amount of suspicion I'm getting, I'm not sure how much that helps your case :/ but, everything you describe is exactly how it happened, if at least in what you told me in PMs

[E. Gadd Industries]

No one has voted yet, and I think most of us sleep before the deadline and the phase rollover. So things aren't looking too hot. I'm still not going to vote until I hear from Kai and E. Gadd about that dead man's hand weirdness over PM just in case I get it wrong and trigger a wolf rush, so I'll be up in the morning before the start of night 3, I suppose. Right now the only person I feel pretty confident in the humanity of is A#, who seems to just genuinely be figuring the game out. Of the other three of you, I'm really not sure, and I'm not confident that we'll be able to figure it out if no one's here, so gg I guess.

Well, it seems as though you won't be back until before phase change. Sorry for the spam :') but, to make sure there's time to discuss things before phase change, I'll be up (against my better judgement, seeing as I'm in Pacific time) an hour before phase change. Hopefully we'll have time to pick through things of need be, and hopefully I responded to what you wanted me to respond to with the information you were seeking. It'd make the discussion a lot easier with an hour before phase change.

Ugh, that just makes things more difficult with voting. Not a good situation all around, def an inopportune phase change time, but I do get the pain of work schedules for THC and so there's nothing to be done about it.

[XiaoMigros]

What about TZP and Kaiveran? I wonder if TZP is latching on to A# being human to gain your trust or something, idk