twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo

[Kaiveran]

Checking in real quick, looks like I'm gonna have to do things off the cuff with whatever minutes I can steal today because I have to move a complex game forward tonight (which I still haven't made a spreadsheet for :facepalm:) and I don't think the wee hours of the night will be a buzzing hub of activity somehow.

Thankfully all the stuff I've missed from toDay is in the summary view.

yey, it is time for me to analyze all players and possible wolf pairs

1–ThatHiddenCharacter: He's... that. And he's HIDDEN. What more must I say?

OK, jokes aside:

1–Xiao: To be honest, I've had a bad feeling about him since the beginning, and now everything seems to point towards him being a wolf.
2–Kaiveran: They've been so neutral that they're starting to become suspicious (to me) because of it.
3–TZP: I don't have much to analyze with him, but in my eyes he can definitely be a wolf because of that. CoMe BaCk AnD tAlK
4–E. Gadd: I don't see any reason to suspect him any more.
5–A# Minor: I feel silly about adding my name here.

Xiao/Kaiveran: If TZP isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/TZP: If Kaiveran isn't a wolf, then this is it.
Xiao/E. Gadd: Very unlikely.
Xiao/A#m: I, uh, haven't said a word to him.
TZP/Kaiveran: If Xiao isn't a wolf, then this is it, but I'd be shocked if he isn't.
TZP/E. Gadd: Then I'd wonder what in the world they were doing earlier.
TZP/A#m: We only PM'd each other like once or twice.
A#m/E. Gadd: I don't think it's normal for wolves to openly suspect each other.
Kaiveran/A#m: To avoid writing it a third time, I'll say this instead: I should really talk to people.

I think that covers everything.
Also, I'd like to note that this took like an hour to complete.
/|\(^._.^)/|\ (I did tell you)

I also think putting yourself in an analysis/list is silly, but I also understand it used to happen as a matter of course, so no fault for that.

I understand feeling locked into Xiao at this point (b/c he's been the most underwhelming before toDay) but I think you should elaborate on TZP specifically, because of potential pairing with Xiao and also the PMs.

My main sticking point here is you "not saying a word" to Xiao. Because as I discussed with Gadd via PMs, attacking fellow wolves ("bussing") is typically not something wolves in this tradition do unless forced to. And we really haven't seen any overt defenses either. Which means the primary wolf strategy here would be to ignore/nullread each other. Since your interaction with Xiao slots right into that theory, hopefully my suspicion makes a bit more sense. (although Gadd seems to disagree, hopefully I'll have time to get to his response)

Finally, don't feel too bad about the time taken – when I'm at my sweatiest I can take 2-4 hours to assemble one of my mighty analysis/casing walls. Although that my partially be down to my dumb ADHD-brain, meow.

I get that you're busy, but if you do find the time, I'd like to see if your memory stands up to reading through the game thread for interactions. As for me, it isn't necessarily that it's a lock-clear, but the way A# is playing is very much a "Hey I'm new and just trying to figure out whatever I can and help wherever I can". If she's a wolf and this is her first game ever and she's playing like that, I think we've stumbled upon a TWG prodigy, or at the very least, I've never seen something like that in my time of playing.

Not quoting, but A# Minor's suspicion post is great for a first timer. Couple of issues that aren't really consequential to this game, I'm happy to talk about them after the game ends though (although I imagine Kaiveran might have more to say with more experience).
I forget what it stands for, but it's like, "you mislynch, you lose"

Unfortunately, as I went into above, it's probably not gonna be until way late at night that I actuall get the wherewithal to do my usual thing, it's gonna be hampered by the fact that, in all likelihood, I'm gonna have to follow others' votes even if they're not optimal by my analysis (because they won't be awake to follow my vote). Still, I suppose it's worth a shot.

I do somewhat agree with the latter, though, which is why I'm trying to give her some space to elaborate.
(gotta go.)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

All right everyone, I'm here for the finale. I know I owe a couple of you PMs--bear with me while I get my bearings, I think there's a lot for me to respond to. Couple minutia from a skim:

when I'm at my sweatiest I can take 2-4 hours to assemble one of my mighty analysis/casing walls

^this is absolutely right, I always think these games aren't going to take much attention but then there's one random day where I spend three hours staring at the player list, willing it to make sense lol

shahkvnsma
jsk. Woosk akska skk

nice

I've played irl countless times

What irl versions have you played?

[A# Minor]

I understand feeling locked into Xiao at this point (b/c he's been the most underwhelming before toDay) but I think you should elaborate on TZP specifically, because of potential pairing with Xiao and also the PMs.

Like I said, I haven't had much interaction with TZP, so I don't have much to go off of at the moment, but if you're not Xiao's partner, I'm pretty sure he is. And for the record, he only PM'd me to ask for my chat log with E. Gadd.

My main sticking point here is you "not saying a word" to Xiao. Because as I discussed with Gadd via PMs, attacking fellow wolves ("bussing") is typically not something wolves in this tradition do unless forced to. And we really haven't seen any overt defenses either. Which means the primary wolf strategy here would be to ignore/nullread each other. Since your interaction with Xiao slots right into that theory, hopefully my suspicion makes a bit more sense. (although Gadd seems to disagree, hopefully I'll have time to get to his response)

If you're saying that you think I'm Xiao's partner because of what I said, I can (kinda) see where you're coming from. However, I am not a wolf, because that's just the way it is. But wolf A#m definitely wouldn't be trying any crazy strategies right now, besides the fact that we can't pick who to wolf if we haven't been talking.
(By the way, I'll most likely be up until like 3am central to discuss)


Ninja'd by TZP

shahkvnsma
jsk. Woosk akska skk

nice

glad you like my phone going nuts (and apparently being super happy too)

^this is absolutely right, I always think these games aren't going to take much attention but then there's one random day where I spend three hours staring at the player list, willing it to make sense lol

That's what happened when I tried to make my suspicion list XD

[TheZeldaPianist275]

First things first: the 36 wolfing. This caught me way off guard. I've had more than one of you tell me that you each thought you were next on the chopping block. To be honest I have absolutely no clue what to make of them, in part because I really thought the same thing about myself. E. Gadd made an absolute meal in my PMs saying that if he died night 2 that at least 2 people were going straight for my lynch the next day. It struck me as ostentatious and ingenuine to a degree that I felt like I was being set up.

A# also was expressing suspicion to me of E. Gadd, specifically because of the case E. Gadd was making about the two of us being weirdly synchronized in our comments on the BDS wolfing (no one has to believe this if they don't want to, but A# will confirm if you ask her)

Then I got this from Kaiveran late in the night phase, right the hell out of nowhere:

If I die tonight, I urge you to take a long, hard look at E.Gadd.

If Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth, 3 different people thought they were on the chopping block night 2. But it's not possible that Kai and E. Gadd were both telling the truth (not unless Xiao and A# are wolves togetehr , which is close to an impossibility in my mind). And given what A# and I had discussed I was at least a little more inclined to trust Kai over E. Gadd. So I was 100% ready to push for an E. Gadd lynch today if I survived. And then 36 died.

Wolfing 36 is literally the polar opposite end of the spectrum from wolfing BDS. Because 36 was so laconic with his posts, there's comparatively not much information at all to be gleaned from his wolfing--he didn't really array himself either with or against anybody. So right now I'd like to hear from both E. Gadd and Kai exactly what it was they were talking about in PMs that made Kai so concerned about getting wolfed, because I was very surprised to see 36's obituary in the day update, and I'm wondering if someone made a last-second switch in wolfing target.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Xiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day. Someone has to be the first person lynched--that's how the game is played. Also, NSM has literally not had a TWG run for five years or something like that, and I thought there was definitely a possibility that people just stand around on Day 1 without saying anything substantive. E. Gadd and A# were saying things like "people should talk more!" and I agreed, so I got the ball rolling. My initial accusation of him was, as you say, weak, because I wanted to see what would happen if I threw him in the hot seat. I have been on the forum with Olimar for literally over a decade and knew he wasn't going to take it lying down, and I wanted some conversation to get going. Then later in the day phase, I felt much better about it (E. Gadd and I discussed this in PMs, please back me up on this) because of the lack of traction it had and also because of that weird thing he said about E. Gadd being a "safe pass".  It was a mislynch, but that is such a common Day 1 occurrence I really don't see how you can say that's wolfy behavior. As E. Gadd pointed out, I was also not the only one who was suspicious of him. It really wasn't that much of an aggressive way to start, but even if it had been, that is still not necessarily wolfish.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

No one has voted yet, and I think most of us sleep before the deadline and the phase rollover. So things aren't looking too hot. I'm still not going to vote until I hear from Kai and E. Gadd about that dead man's hand weirdness over PM just in case I get it wrong and trigger a wolf rush, so I'll be up in the morning before the start of night 3, I suppose. Right now the only person I feel pretty confident in the humanity of is A#, who seems to just genuinely be figuring the game out. Of the other three of you, I'm really not sure, and I'm not confident that we'll be able to figure it out if no one's here, so gg I guess.

[A# Minor]

Hey, I'm here, just let me get in bed and we can chat

[TheZeldaPianist275]

what is your lean, A#? Please do not actually vote yet

[A# Minor]

I assume you're asking me who I suspect the most? (Sorry, I'm not very familiar with the TWG lingo.)


Oh yeah, for some reason I forgot about the 36-1 wolfing, thanks for bringing that up in your post. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they put names into a random name picker and wolfed the result. Which is something I could only see Xiao doing (not the name picker, wolfing a mostly inactive person). I'm leaning more on Kaiveran being their companion, but I haven't seen anything that'll make me clear you yet, so you and Xiao as wolves can still be possible. (RIP A#m's inner grammar nazi)


Also I'm not voting until I'm about to go to sleep (2-3 am central, maybe?)

[XiaoMigros]

What irl versions have you played?

The game is just called 'werewolfing' lol

Xiao, if you're suspicious of me for another reason, let's talk about it, but I really want to put to bed whatever suspicion you have of me for leading the charge on Olimar on the first day.

Nah thats the main reason really, it just made you seem most fishy compared to everyone else

What makes you doubt A# being a wolf? Because to me the most likely pairing is them and E Gadd

Either way, if I can trust you, it seems we both are leaning towards E Gadd being one? I need to hear more from Kaiveran before I can come to any conclusions though.

Oh yeah, for some reason I forgot about the 36-1 wolfing, thanks for bringing that up in your post. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they put names into a random name picker and wolfed the result. Which is something I could only see Xiao doing

This is a really odd thing to say. What makes you think that only I could pick a certain person to wolf?
Baseless accusations against me just make me doubt you more than I do already. Only issue is, at least 2 other people seem to trust you... but i really dont see why

[E. Gadd Industries]

Hi I'm here, reading over things and then will respond. I just had like 10 people over at my apartment for my birthday party, was great

As I'm going, TZP, could you be a bit more specific about what you're wanting from me? I'm confused. Are you wanting to know the PMs I had with Kaiveran? Or am I misunderstanding?

[A# Minor]

This is a really odd thing to say. What makes you think that only I could pick a certain person to wolf?
Baseless accusations against me just make me doubt you more than I do already. Only issue is, at least 2 other people seem to trust you... but i really dont see why

I am not a wolf, because that's just the way it is.

I don't see how this is baseless. I mean, I'd pick someone random if I was a wolf too, so I'd think you would do something similar.

[A# Minor]

Why does the post button have to be right next to the preview button??

[XiaoMigros]

I mean, I'd pick someone random if I was a wolf too

literally anyone could do that though

[E. Gadd Industries]

First things first: the 36 wolfing. This caught me way off guard. I've had more than one of you tell me that you each thought you were next on the chopping block. To be honest I have absolutely no clue what to make of them, in part because I really thought the same thing about myself. E. Gadd made an absolute meal in my PMs saying that if he died night 2 that at least 2 people were going straight for my lynch the next day. It struck me as ostentatious and ingenuine to a degree that I felt like I was being set up.

A# also was expressing suspicion to me of E. Gadd, specifically because of the case E. Gadd was making about the two of us being weirdly synchronized in our comments on the BDS wolfing (no one has to believe this if they don't want to, but A# will confirm if you ask her)

For now I'm going to respond piecewise until I get confirmation from TZP on what he's wanting me to address.
So for this chunk, I did indeed go for you, but as I said before (or at least, I think I mentioned it somewhere in this game thread), I was doing that to soft-accuse you to see how you'd respond. I did something similar to A#, but with her I was more direct in my accusation. I'm still not fully convinced of your humanity, but at the same time, I don't think you're nearly as suspicious as Xiao. So, I suppose you could say it was "disingenuous", but it was done in the interests of trying to get a better read of you. I didn't ever end up telling anyone to go for you D2 should I die N2, but I did send that PM to 36 that I posted earlier about having two specific suspicions (though I didn't specify who to him).

I am also willing to confirm my early suspicion of you both from PMs due to the synchronization of your responses to my question, for what that's worth.