twg cxiv: nothing special 2: electric boogaloo

[Kaiveran]

slightly suspect: Olimar, 36
slightly unsuspect: E. Gadd, Zelda
need to hear more from: A# Minor, XiaoMigros

[Kaiveran]

Hmm...

Olimar, why aren't you voting ZeldaPianist right now?

(serious question)

[A# Minor]

Hello, I'm here, I've been out for half of the afternoon, and forgot to post in the main thread.
...OOPS.

I'm still getting used to the game right now. (Just so this space isn't blank,) this morning I was thinking one of the wolves may have been someone new because I guess any newer player would be scared of BDS, and now I'm not sure what I think since both arguments could make sense. Come on A#m, it's not that hard to have an opinion. I'm also not too sure who to suspect yet (sCaNnInG fOr EvIdEnCe).
Also I'll be going somewhere tomorrow, so you probably won't hear from me until later in the afternoon. And I should have my mind back then so I could give you a decent explanation of what I'm thinking.

newbie-feeling-out-the-game content

I was just waiting for it XD

[World 36-1]

I'm interested to see who else gets wolfed. Even if BDS was a random choice, the discussions have potentially placed targets on the other experienced players.

I have had no interactions with BDS, so I can't be of much help there. If anyone else has had any convos with him, please share.

36 is fine, World 36-1 is kind of a mouthful lol

[E. Gadd Industries]

Wowie a lot has happened, loving this!!

So real quick, I have no PM history with BDS on this game. The people I've sent PMs to (but not necessarily in the context I mentioned in my last post):
-A#
-TZP
-36
-Olimar (who hasn't responded)

Now, for my comprehensive response up to this point:

Ahh! Sorry for my absence everyone. Checking this forum slipped my mind as I've had a lot on my plate lately. Including perhaps a newly developing medical condition. Whoopee.

Thankfully it doesn't seem like this will be too long a read.

Glad to see you're around! Hope the medical condition isn't too severe... :<

I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.

I still lean more toward a vet player being on the team, but I do see the reasoning for this. It seems as though a few people have gone between inexperienced vs. experienced now. But now I believe we should start also prioritizing wolf pairings, as some already have been. I'll give mine at the end of the post.

(Not gonna quote Kaiveran's major post, but will respond here, using a header to signify the end):
I am he/him, yes

"#17 by E.Gadd, you think some classic OC strats might come back even with PMs only? Like that one thing we always did when we thought we said too much to X and then contacted a third-party Y saying "if I die tonight, X might be a wolf?" I don't think we ever named that, mind you, but it happened in some form all the time. I wanna call it "deadhanding"."
Response: Not necessarily referring to classic strats. I was more talking about how I started remembering my previous times playing this game (it's been actually years) and all of my own mental notes and strategies were coming back to me. Less of a strategic post and more of a, "Gosh I missed TWG" post.

"Do we know whether or not the wolf kill is mandatory this game (i.e randomized if a wolf doesn't send it)? Because if it's not, we can pretty much confirm that World 36 and I are not partners, which would make her lock clear from my perspective. Which, y'know, feels like playing dirty a little bit, but it sure would be a nice piece of info to have."
-Unless there's been a major change of rules for this game from previous, then a wolf kill is NOT mandatory. I don't want to make assumptions though; THC, can you comment? But yes, on the comment you made immediately after that, there's still a possibility (if even slight) that you two could be partners.

"I would definitely like to hear a bit more from all the parties you mentioned before I commit to a vote though."
-Would be great if we got some more from Olimar. I'll be giving my comprehensive thoughts at the end of this post so people can see those and not just me responding to things. ...actually this will likely be a long post, I'll make my thoughts in a subsequent post (including wolf pairings).

"Well, E. Gadd and BDS himself where trying to keep the activity up N1, and they both gave reasons for it. Is there a particular reason you didn't see fit to participate much in that discussion?"
-This in particular. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't really appreciate the nonchalance, and (this is new) whether he's townie or wolf, that sort of behavior isn't helping town.

"Ok, like, I think E. Gadd has been decently towny thus far, but this sudden convergence on "E. Gadd is off the table" makes me think that at least one of 36 and Olimar have TMI."
-Combining with the previous comment you made to 36, unless I'm reading it wrong, I think they're referring to ruling out lynch candidates for this current phase. At the very least, with our current situation, absolutely no one is off the table in the long game, but it is beneficial to rule people out for a possible lynch this phase; it goes without saying that we need to be very careful and calculated since we only have one slip-up.

I'm interested to see who else gets wolfed. Even if BDS was a random choice, the discussions have potentially placed targets on the other experienced players.

That's normally how this goes ye. It makes no sense no matter how you spin it for a wolf team where both are alive to target a less-experienced player. Unless they're actively trying to go for the confusion play, but that late in the game it won't matter as suspicions will be formed and accusations made, and brief confusion would clear up.

My original thoughts coming in the next post.

[E. Gadd Industries]

Okay, original thoughts. First and foremost, I'll do current suspicions and wolf pairings:

Suspicions (order doesnt matter, I'm just adding players as I remember who's what
1. TZP (ambivalent, will explain later)
2. A# (ambivalent, but slightly town lean)
3. Olimar (slightly suspicious)
4. 36 (slightly suspicious, quite less than Olimar, will explain later)
5. Kaiveran (more town leaning, or amazing wolf that I cannot make an accusation against at the moment)
6. Xiao (slightly suspicious)
7. E. Gadd (has been PMing a lot, but it's also me)

Wolf pairings:
TZP: A# Minor (weakly) (in PMs, they both had the same thought initially about BDS being wolfed by an inexperienced player but completely separately, which I thought was odd, could see it as new wolf following the thoughts of a more experienced wolf and being set up to bus the new wolf should things get rough) (*I can post PM receipts as needed, but I'll need to get to my laptop bc doing that on mobile is gonna be a headache)

A#: TZP (and that's really all the interaction I've seen)

Olimar: 36 (weakly) (obviously, both trying to clear me is room for suspect, but as I said in my previous post, I think it's just for one day phase. Or at least, it should be. I also could very much see 36 agreeing since he is newer and just wanting to jump on something more certain, even if that thing isn't all that certain to begin with)
E. Gadd (this one is more from PMs, in case they get brought up; I've been more accusatory to TZP than to Olimar despite also sharing that I don't like his nonchalance with not posting N1)

36: Olimar (weakly, see above)

Kaiveran: Xiao (very weakly) (I'm basing this off the fact that there's been no interaction between them whatsoever, aside from the brief list Kaiveran made)

Xiao: Kaiveran (by virtue of above, but no substantive information)

E. Gadd: Olimar (see above)


Okay, so there are a few points that I need to make now in the light of all of this:

1) To restate, I asked both TZP and A# separately in PMs what thoughts they had surrounding BDS's death, and they both initially attributed his death to an inexperienced player, which I haven't aligned with from the start; I could see the argument, but at the same time, I think the argument for a vet wolf is stronger, and more importantly, a vet wolf is more dangerous (apologies to any inexperienced wolves out there). It then struck me as odd when TZP apparently went back on that viewpoint here in the game thread, suggesting that a more experienced wolf would've done it. When confronted in PMs, he said that the inexperienced wolf would be one that targets based on trying to get players more active which BDS did toward the end of the night phase, whereas the experienced wolf would go after him because they know he has history and skill here. I say that any new person wanting to actually try could pretty easily figure out that BDS has skill by virtue of his posts contributing much to the overall town strategy (and that he's on TWC if people look around) rather than the less focused posts I made early on, for example. So the inexperienced argument doesn't hold, which would make sense why he turned on it (as did A# Minor, later). I also think that an inexperienced wolf calling the shots just doesn't make sense because it greatly limits who the partner could be (another inexperienced wolf or inactive); why would a vet wolf allow a new wolf to take the lead?

2) Following from that, I was initially extremely suspicious of TZP and A# (even to the point of PMing THC so he'd have it for the record in case I called it early D1), and decided to push the envelope by directly accusing A# in PMs as sort of a reaction test against them. Either way, I don't think it'd be wise to go after an inexperienced player D1 unless they slip up big time, so there was no danger backing up the accusation unless, again, slip ups happened. But anyway, I accused her and she responded in a way I was semi-expecting. Essentially, "I don't know what I'm doing, it made sense initially but now I can see it the other way." Hence, my ambivalence on my initial suspicions list.

3) I was a bit less direct with TZP, but essentially told him the same thing, that I'm suspicious of him and A#. He asked for PM receipts in response (which I'll be sending to you if you're reading this, TZP, but after I eat breakfast; I haven't eaten since I woke up and absolutely need food). I think he's been generally talkative enough to make him less of an immediate threat than Olimar.

4) In light of all of this, I think the best course of action is to go after a vet player, and specifically, an NSM vet player who knows that BDS is skilled and has experience. That's me, Olimar and TZP (unless I'm forgetting you from previous games, Kaiveran? Or if you have experience from other forums. Either way, I don't think you're on the chopping block for this phase). It's dangerous, going for a vet player, because assuming the wolves will as well, that's fewer and fewer experienced voices who can steer the ship D2 if we do get it wrong. But I think we'd be taking a (more) blind shot going for any other group. Even with Xiao's argument earlier that it could be a vet wolf argument to go for a vet wolf... that still leads to the importance of getting a vet wolf.

5) Now, I think Olimar is the best option at the moment, but I'm not going to vote formally yet on the chance that he comes back and gives some world-shattering thoughts about the game. And then there's also the chance that, if he has two votes on him, and none of the three of myself, TZP and Olimar are wolves (looking at you, Kaiveran), then there could be a wolf rush that we really don't need at the moment. Sure, we could know fairly well who the wolves are, but there would still be uncertainty depending on how the rush is done. And with the possibility of a vet wolf, they could orchestrate it one of those ways, OR a newer player could cast their vote on top of mine, unaware of what a wolf rush is, allowing for a wolf to play off of that.

6) Saying all of this, I absolutely need to hear more from Olimar and Xiao.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Sorry, I tried to post this almost an hour ago. Good grief my Internet is busted.

the inexperienced wolf would be one that targets based on trying to get players more active which BDS did toward the end of the night phase, whereas the experienced wolf would go after him because they know he has history and skill here.....any new person wanting to actually try could pretty easily figure out that BDS has skill by virtue of his posts contributing much to the overall town strategy (and that he's on TWC if people look around)

You're undermining your own argument here. Whether an inexperienced wolf attacked BDS because he wanted people to be more active or because he has seniority, the inexperienced wolf is still a possibility as the attacker, and BDS still died. Seems like you're confusing cause and effect. We're just haggling about *why* an inexperienced wolf might have done it--the inexperienced wolf is still on the table as a possible culprit.

In any case, I think this bifurcation is kinda dumb. I'm inclined to agree that there's at least one wolf on the team that knew BDS, but that's partially just because of the numbers (3 or 4 out of 7 have played with him before). The reality is that a wolf could have picked BDS very easily regardless of skill level. E. Gadd, you're talking like you/me/Olimar are going to have a completely different set of processes than Xiao/A#/36. We all know how to play the game here.

I initially voted Olimar because someone needs to make a first accusation of the game, and Olimar is a combative enough player that I knew at least some kind of discussion would get going. I actually feel better about lynching him now than I did at the start of the day, though, partially because if he was human, I think the lynch would have gained more traction, with the wolves seeing an opportunity to push for a mislynch. Also, this

Hello, World 36-1! Thanks for confirming that reach-out. E. Gadd is probably a safe pass for the lynch.

is just kind of a strange thing to say. I don't think it makes E. Gadd necessarily Olimar's wolf partner--that would be preschool-tier wolf gameplay for Olimar--but it's still odd, and comes across a bit like someone trying to square his knowledge of the game with the publicly available knowledge about the game.

TL;DR I agree with E. Gadd's suspicions, less so his framework and premises. I'm honestly kinda baffled by these, because you've explicitly said that the inexperienced wolf could have attacked BDS for *the exact same set* of reasons as the experienced wolf. I've said that it could have been an inexperienced wolf or an experienced one in different places because I can see it both ways, and it sounds like you can too, so I don't know why you are insisting that it has to be one of the senior players.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

THC, can you comment?

If no one is selected, no one dies.

[XiaoMigros]

do we find out if the person who dies is an impostor/werewolf

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Yes. See the Day 1 update post, where BDS flipped green. That's what it looks like

[A# Minor]

Time for some thoughts from me.

1) ... So the inexperienced argument doesn't hold, which would make sense why he turned on it (as did A# Minor, later).

OK, what happened here? I made a point to say this:

even though it may have seemed so, I never doubted the possibility of having an experienced wolf on the team, and I don't recall saying that I agreed with TZP.

And it seems like you forgot that. I only said that his argument makes sense.


So after his last post, I have a feeling that E. Gadd is trying to separate us into groups based on what we think and is basically saying "A# and TZP are going for the argument that makes less sense in my opinion, so they're both wolves". He hasn't given any other reasons to suspect us.


Ninja'd x2

[XiaoMigros]

as for my thoughts: i think its a little early for me to say anything with confidence, but olimar does seem a little sus. im not sure if its enough to warrant voting for him, but a few of his comments did strike me as a little off

@E Gadd: if we vote out a vet, whos to say we get a wolf? if we end up selecting a human that leaves 0-2 vet humans, making the rest of the game more difficult. though, at the same time, if the wolves kill another vet again next round...

also i dont think we should limit ourselves to one vet being the wolf, its quite possible theres two

[Olimar12345]

Hi its meeeeeeeee

I'm not sure if I agree with the idea that there's at least one experienced wolf. As Olimar already mentioned, BDS as a moderator and an active member could simply have been a random choice. That said, it's definitely not unlikely that there is at least one experienced wolf, given by the number of players alone.

Not sure I jive with this bit here. It comes across too "maybe it was random maybe it wasn't" to me, not to mention wolfing someone because they're a mod/active member is a reason and would make it not a random choice XD

Well, E. Gadd and BDS himself where trying to keep the activity up N1, and they both gave reasons for it. Is there a particular reason you didn't see fit to participate much in that discussion?

No reason, I don't think I was even on my pc much then. Night 1's are usually slow and in the past here haven't been eventful /shrug

Ok, like, I think E. Gadd has been decently towny thus far, but this sudden convergence on "E. Gadd is off the table" makes me think that at least one of 36 and Olimar have TMI.

If you're referring to my human-vibes from E. Gadd in that quote, I had taken E. Gadd's activity prior to that into consideration before I posted that reply. It was more like, "oh he seems pretty active and posting helpfully, and now this other person confirmed something they did so ok"

Olimar, why aren't you voting ZeldaPianist right now?
(serious question)

Because I would definitely like to hear a bit more from all the parties you mentioned before I commit to a vote, though!

jokes aside, ig as of posting this that's the most sus thing I've seen yet so sure TZP ynot (sry lovely)

Still catching up with the latest replies, more soon

[Kaiveran]

Aye, due to circumstances I have only a scant few minutes to devote to this game today (the IRL today, not toDay).

Also, I should have mentioned this earlier, but due to my accursed work schedule, I will be largely unavailable on Thursdays, Saturday, or Sundays.

[Kaiveran]

I mostly agree with E.Gadd's first post on this page

don't really have time to go over the second in detail but pairwise analysis is prob the best way to solve this thing going forward

I think TZP makes a good point and like, purely from the play of statistics over the mixed bag of players we have here, we shouldn't get too caught up in the seniority argument

nice to have confirmation from THC, but with the cat out of the bag about 36 being there at SoN (as Gadd pointed out) it doesn't really mean much

as for Olimar I can buy the first counterpoint, but I have trouble with the second. from town!Oli's POV one would think that if you're embracing the perspectives that he seemed to have (vets are more likely wolf, E. Gadd is clear), and you're obviously clearing yourself from that pool, then the only remaining option in that lane is TZP. and I can understand wanting to reserve your vote but I would expect some actual prodding of TZP in lieu of that, and I haven't seen that at all