TWG CXII Game Thread

[Funnygurl555]

or... me and shy but like fmpov there's one possibility

[BlackDragonSlayer]

it's possible that a wolf is dead too, then any of us could be partners (well in a world where the wolf is dead im not a wolf)

i understand that a me and shy pairing is possible in y'alls eyse , but i shouldn't be considered for the lynch tn regardless; voting for me is mechanically bad

If a wolf's dead, you don't really have any reason not to vote Shy, then?

Also, why is voting for you mechanically bad? Why you specifically?

[Funnygurl555]

If a wolf's dead, you don't really have any reason not to vote Shy, then?

Also, why is voting for you mechanically bad? Why you specifically?

kai claimed revoker, used his role on me, someone still died in the night

[BlackDragonSlayer]

kai claimed revoker, used his role on me, someone still died in the night

Ah yeah, I forgot that. Still, it doesn't completely exclude you as a wolf; just makes me more likely to want to vote Shy.

[Funnygurl555]

i understand that i'm not cleared, but kai's night action confirmed that there's at least one wolf among you, shy, and davy

[BlackDragonSlayer]

i understand that i'm not cleared, but kai's night action confirmed that there's at least one wolf among you, shy, and davy

Then why do you single in on me over one of the others?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also my class is about to start so it'll be a while before I reply to you.

[Funnygurl555]

Then why do you single in on me over one of the others?

so imagine you're me, and imagine that you're going to go into this phase with the assumption that two wolves are alive.

davy x shy is very highly unlikely 'cause davy placed a vote on shy and left.

if there are two wolves, then you have to be one of them.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

i understand that i'm not cleared, but kai's night action confirmed that there's at least one wolf among you, shy, and davy

So, this means either BDS or davy is a wolf (from my perspective). I already thought you two were a pair, but anyways, my vote is going to go to one of you two. Not sure which yet. I already thought davy was suspicious a while ago. He's still on about my inactivity at the beginning.

[Shy] should have been lynched last phase (and maybe even the phase before that) already. I'm not going to let him get off the hook again.

[Kaiveran]

Ugh...I am so sorry guys. Today's engagements had me away for longer than expected. Given that there's less than 2 hours to EoD, I doubt I'll be able to do the deep dive into the possibilities that I had planned.

What is certain, however, is that every single player was online and posted in the time since davy voted Shy, and there was no wolf rush. This means one of three things:

• davy is a wolf
• shy is a wolf
• the wolves don't have the numbers to rush, i.e there's only one left.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Ugh...I am so sorry guys. Today's engagements had me away for longer than expected. Given that there's less than 2 hours to EoD, I doubt I'll be able to do the deep dive into the possibilities that I had planned.

What is certain, however, is that every single player was online and posted in the time since davy voted Shy, and there was no wolf rush. This means one of three things:

• davy is a wolf
• shy is a wolf
• the wolves don't have the numbers to rush, i.e there's only one left.

Oh, interesting. If we're at lylo (as we've been assuming just in case, right?) davy's a wolf. I'm voting davy now as I was already expecting I would.

[Kaiveran]

i understand that i'm not cleared, but kai's night action confirmed that there's at least one wolf among you, shy, and davy

Funny is absolutely right about this, btw. We shouldn't vote outside of this pool. Even if we mislynch, there's essentially a 50% chance the game goes on.

The complication is we have a possible, but not 100% confirmed oppositional pair in davy and shy. Usually we resolve this by lynching one of the two. However, I can resolve this bloodlessly, no matter what, due to my power. On Night 4, I revoke one of davy and Shy, and announce which one I target before EON. If there's no kill, gg autowin, we lynch the one I targeted. If there is, I die of course, but whoever I targeted is confirmed innocent in F3, the best possible odds we can pull out of that situation.

And since, given 2 wolves alive, BDS/davy and BDS/shy pairs are both infinitely more likely than shy/davy, the optimal move here is to vote BDS.

[ShyYoshiGuy]

Funny is absolutely right about this, btw. We shouldn't vote outside of this pool. Even if we mislynch, there's essentially a 50% chance the game goes on.

The complication is we have a possible, but not 100% confirmed oppositional pair in davy and shy. Usually we resolve this by lynching one of the two. However, I can resolve this bloodlessly, no matter what, due to my power. On Night 4, I revoke one of davy and Shy, and announce which one I target before EON. If there's no kill, gg autowin, we lynch the one I targeted. If there is, I die of course, but whoever I targeted is confirmed innocent in F3, the best possible odds we can pull out of that situation.

And since, given 2 wolves alive, BDS/davy and BDS/shy pairs are both infinitely more likely than shy/davy, the optimal move here is to vote BDS.

This is breaking my brain right now. I'm so confused. Anyways, yeah, sounds like a good plan.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

so imagine you're me, and imagine that you're going to go into this phase with the assumption that two wolves are alive.

davy x shy is very highly unlikely 'cause davy placed a vote on shy and left.

if there are two wolves, then you have to be one of them.

You grilled FA on believing that there were two wolves left, yet suddenly now you're believing that.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Funny is absolutely right about this, btw. We shouldn't vote outside of this pool. Even if we mislynch, there's essentially a 50% chance the game goes on.

The complication is we have a possible, but not 100% confirmed oppositional pair in davy and shy. Usually we resolve this by lynching one of the two. However, I can resolve this bloodlessly, no matter what, due to my power. On Night 4, I revoke one of davy and Shy, and announce which one I target before EON. If there's no kill, gg autowin, we lynch the one I targeted. If there is, I die of course, but whoever I targeted is confirmed innocent in F3, the best possible odds we can pull out of that situation.

And since, given 2 wolves alive, BDS/davy and BDS/shy pairs are both infinitely more likely than shy/davy, the optimal move here is to vote BDS.

Why can Shy and davy not be partners but not me and Shy...?