TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[SpecsFlyer17]

The problem I have with wolf!N1P2 is just how easy he went down. It's not like he still wins if the other wolf wins. wolf!N1P2's game was 100% on the line, and he took the defeat without even putting up a fight.

That just doesn't make sense.

[SpecsFlyer17]

This only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around

Makes sense. There could be two wolves, but from a wolf's perspective, it's a gamble to claim publicly unless they're certain there's another wolf out there.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?

What TZP said. Not knowing N1P2 was the other wolf.

Is it possible that Oricorio was the blue wolf?

redwolf!Somebody burned bluewolf!Oricorio and red-paint someone random. Oricorio opted to not chill anyone while blue-painteding someone random. That seems plausible right?

I think it's possible as long as Oricorio would have believed he needed the extra votes to survive the day.

This to me could quite well be wolf!Oricorio setting up a red herring after seeing he was gonna be lynched

Maybe he didn't want to hit the other wolf and risk screwing them both over? I don't think he would've known for sure he would've been the principal lynch target.

All three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).

I'm also inclined to believe that N1P2 was the red wolf as the most likely scenario. Occam's Razor or somethin'

The problem I have with wolf!N1P2 is just how easy he went down. It's not like he still wins if the other wolf wins. wolf!N1P2's game was 100% on the line, and he took the defeat without even putting up a fight.

That just doesn't make sense.

It's possible he started his defense too late and just knew there was like 0% chance of turning the lynch around once the momentum got started.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I'm gonna to be running some errands later so might be in and out sporadically for the rest of the phase.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Yes, the only scenario missing from your list is Oricorio being the red wolf.

For that to happen, that means the blue wolf both chilled and painted Oricorio, and TZP is lying about the green check. I don't think that's likely at all.

Yeah, I was solving based on the assumption that the seers have been truthful with their claims, but I suppose that's possible from your perspective if you are human. It still has the weakness, though, that Oricorio would have completely neglected to send an action N2, and I think that's even less likely for Oricorio than it is for other players.

Also for everyone's awareness, I'm catching a flight right around phase end for the second bachelor party/wedding this week, so my communication will be highly limited for the day phase. Can't be helped.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Also, thinking ahead for seer results tomorrow. Seer results will help us to lynch accurately...but on the other hand, if we are in the world where both wolves are still alive, each wolf only needs confirmation that his teammate is alive to publicly claim, and then team up and win. If the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I think green results are safe to release, but I'm not sure about the point you bring up. I suppose at the end of the day we'll just have to go for it.

We could try to reveal the results to a single person via PM before releasing them publicly, but that still has similar risks, just with extra steps.

[XiaoMigros]

Also, there's no way to verify the results given are correct. theres more than 50% chance that one of the seers is a wolf

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

---

Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist

---

Nobody died — for the second night in a row! Woohoo!

It is now Day 3. Day 3 ends in 48 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Thursday, July 4th.

[mastersuperfan]

Not to continue being too trigger-happy with the phase extensions, but since the phase is set to end on the 4th of July (which I did not realize until now), does anyone feel strongly about extending it and ending on July 5th instead? (or, for fairness's sake, pausing the game entirely on the 4th)

Some people here are in the States and some aren't, so I figured I'd gauge thoughts first, since either way works for me.

If nobody objects to it ending on July 4th I'm happy to leave it as is.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I myself have no Plana on the 4th, but if others need an extension I'm ok with that.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

*plans

No idea what my autocorrect was thinking

[SpecsFlyer17]

If the Fire Wolf is in fact alive and is just waiting for confirmation that the Ice Wolf is still out there (i.e. it wasn't Oricorio), and Specs shares a blue result, that's game. Vice versa if I seer someone red and Oricorio was innocent. Is this just a risk we have to take, or is there a way around this anyone can see?

If they found each other N2, I'd say it was game. But since they didn't (or it appears they didn't) and therefore weren't able to direct their burning/chilling to humans, there are still cases where a wolf alliance may not have enough vote power.

Case 1: Wolves hit each other. D3, the wolf team collective has 1 vote versus the town's 2. A wolf gets lynched. N4, one of the humans loses a vote, but D4 the humans can still win a 1.5 to .5 vote.

Case 2: One wolve got hit, one human got hit. The wolves own 1.5 votes while the humans also own 1.5 votes. It's a KitB at that point, and there are 3 options. First, the wolf with 1 vote is lynched. This results in a D4 town win, as the wolves will have .5 votes and humans have 1. Second, the wolf with .5 votes is lynched. N4, the town will be reduced to 1 vote total, bringing things to a D4 KitB finish. Finally, the human with 1 vote is lynched. The town will be killed off N4. The scenario where the .5 vote human is lynched is not likely, as the wolves will target the higher vote player for the KitB. Case 2 is not ideal for the wolves, as some scenarios result in a singular wolf winning, which is not grounds for an alliance.

Case 3: Two humans got hit. The wolves own 2 votes while the humans own 1. This pretty clearly results in dual wolf win.

Long story short, if we reveal seering results, two remaining wolves are not guaranteed victory. It depends on who they hit N3.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Yeah I'm fine to keep July 4th. I'm in Europe still, so not much festivities lol.

[SpecsFlyer17]

If they found each other N3

Typo. N2 should read N3.