TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Blue seer red wolf Specs world:
- Specs deliberately didn't use his vote power, meaning blue wolf would've had to have targeted Oricorio. In this case Oricorio couldn't have been the blue wolf since he more than likely wouldn't want to target himself (I feel fairly confident saying this).
- Specs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio.
- TZP didn't seer whoever Specs did paint (if he even painted anyone at all).
- Two wolves would be alive which means they could just publicly claim to each other to win together and humans couldn't do much to stop that.

Am I missing anything?

...of course, N1P2 could've been the blue wolf and maybe Specs did use his power, not knowing N1P2 was dead. But then why would he release a blue seering on Oricorio if he used his power on him? Wouldn't really make sense.

Unless I'm missing something, I think Specs is probably the most human player alive by game mechanics.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Would definitely appreciate some sort of confirmation/double checking on this front

[SpecsFlyer17]

One more thing. Since Oricorio was the only one with .5 votes, nobody can die N3 unless a) two wolves remain, and b) they hit the same person.

Poor Oricorio. Got double seer'd, vote manipulated, potentially painted, and lynched.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Am I missing anything?

I'll look over this in the morning.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Specs gave a fake seering result on Oricorio

I think everything you said is right except this. In bsrw!Specs world (lol), with the ice wolf alive and painting Oricorio, Specs would be telling the truth about his blue seering. I agree with everything else though, it requires quite a bit of tinfoil for Specs to make sense as a wolf now.

Gotta say, whichever one of you is the wolf (or two of you I suppose), kudos on playing a very clean game so far. This has turned into a real cipher.

[SpecsFlyer17]

...of course, N1P2 could've been the blue wolf and maybe Specs did use his power, not knowing N1P2 was dead.

Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Specs deliberately didn't use his vote power, meaning blue wolf would've had to have targeted Oricorio.

rwbs!Specs could have burned and see'd town!Oricorio while the blue wolf painted Oricorio blue but didn't chill anyone? Is that plausible?

[SpecsFlyer17]

Is it possible that Oricorio was the blue wolf?

redwolf!Somebody burned bluewolf!Oricorio and red-paint someone random. Oricorio opted to not chill anyone while blue-painteding someone random. That seems plausible right?

[SpecsFlyer17]

BDS already alluded to this, so I don't think I'm sharing anything that isn't know.

If there really are two wolves remaining, the game is practically over. They can publicly claim, agree to kill someone tonight, and have a a lock on a 2v1 D3.

If that doesn't happen, it's safe to say N1P2 or Oricorio (I think) was a wolf.

I'm not going to entertain the possibility of THC being a wolf. It's technically possible but I'm pretty sure that's a losing strategy for a wolf.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Wait what? N1P2 got lynched... so everyone knew. Mind explaining?

He means "not knowing the other wolf was dead"

If there really are two wolves remaining, the game is practically over. They can publicly claim, agree to kill someone tonight, and have a a lock on a 2v1 D3.

This only happens if a wolf become convinced his partner is out there—otherwise he's sticking his neck out for nothing. We can still win in this case as long as we convince each wolf that they're helping to lynch humans when the day phase comes around

[XiaoMigros]

I'm convinced there's only one wolf left.

[XiaoMigros]

Undoubtedly true. I will say, if I die today you better start solving in w!N1P2 worlds because that's the only way town still has a chance

This to me could quite well be wolf!Oricorio setting up a red herring after seeing he was gonna be lynched

[TheZeldaPianist275]

As far as I can see it here are the options.

1. The Fire Wolf is still alive. From any perspective, it could be any living player except me. Either through sheer forgetfulness or a desire to play headgames with no guarantee of favorable results, this player did not use at least one of his powers N2.
2. THC was the Fire Wolf. He pulled one of his fabled THC fast moves and burned himself, perhaps with the intention of voting someone at the end of D1 that no one else voted so that everyone could see that he was targeted N1, and maybe trust him more. This has the obvious downside of making himself an easy target for the Ice Wolf, who would see THC with half health and think "prey".
3. N1P2 was the Fire Wolf. Even though the strictly dominant strategy when facing a lynch like he did is to claim seer, he didn't. When he said "it would be worse for me in the long run to claim", maybe it genuinely is the case that he didn't want to deal with being counterclaimed—some people don't like the direct confrontation of situations like that.

All three of these scenarios are unlikely to have happened in a vacuum, but I don't see an alternative to them. I think it comes down to which of these you see as the least unlikely. Right now I think for me personally it's rw!N1P2, since choosing to not fakeclaim seer would seem to fit with statements he made about wanting to take a backseat for the game, but I don't feel strongly about that. I'd be curious to know if any of you have strong feelings about which option it is (or if there's a fourth option I've missed somehow).

[SpecsFlyer17]

As far as I can see it here are the options.

Yes, the only scenario missing from your list is Oricorio being the red wolf.

For that to happen, that means the blue wolf both chilled and painted Oricorio, and TZP is lying about the green check. I don't think that's likely at all.

[mastersuperfan]

A little less than 6 hours left in N3!