TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[SpecsFlyer17]

Post N2, seering, if wolfseer!Specs knows that Oricorio is the other wolf, there's no real advantage to me sharing the blue check, since it would be advantageous to team up. I did share the blue check, so at the time, I wouldn't have known that Oricorio was the other wolf. That more or less proves we did not find each other prior to the start of D2.

So why is Specs/Oricorio pairing nonsensical?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

That's what I'm wondering as well. I wanted to see if Oricorio had a point and I was missing something obvious because I was tripping myself up, but Oricorio's response to the whole situation definitely rubs me the wrong way regardless.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Basically, the pairing is possible under the context that wolfseer!Specs didn't know Oricorio is the blue wolf.

[XiaoMigros]

In regards to the statements which pinged me, yes, I agree its not a given that Specs knows who the remaining wolf is. That said, judging by his play style, Oricorio probably does (hence the targeting me). Unlike Oricorio (I assume), I'd be fine voting for someone else if they are more likely to be a wolf, but I don't feel that way towards anyone yet.

[SpecsFlyer17]

In the interest of pushing a different angle: if Oricorio and Specs are wolves together, what are the chances they've already connected? Wolf!Specs probably would have legit seered Oricorio, and from there it's a matter of whether Specs would want to throw Oricorio under the bus or attempt to win together. Depending on who Specs and Oricorio may have targeted for vote reduction, it's possible Specs' hands may be forced in the matter regardless (like, maybe he painted me or TZP and reduced Xiao's vote, so Xiao wouldn't be an optimal lynch if he wanted to win).

However, your original message does seem to reference us already connecting. That is unlikely, although I do agree that there may be some rare, specific situation where wolf!Specs would benefit from outing wolf!Oricorio. I haven't gone through the possibilities in my head. It's definitely more likely that the two wolves would benefit from teaming, imo.

[XiaoMigros]

As for the pairing options concerning me, I can see why you might believe them possible. By all means, vote me out next round if you think it's best. Just not this one lol

[XiaoMigros]

However, your original message does seem to reference us already connecting. That is unlikely, although I do agree that there may be some rare, specific situation where wolf!Specs would benefit from outing wolf!Oricorio. I haven't gone through the possibilities in my head. It's definitely more likely that the two wolves would benefit from teaming, imo.

I think wolf!Specs could be seeing this as a ploy to gain town trust, thinking town is/was () already kinda set on Oricorio as the next lynch option.

[XiaoMigros]

What has Xiao done that people are townreading them for? All I can gather is that they have a decent tone, but is that really hard to fake? They hadn't responded to the gambit, accomplished little behind the scenes as far as I can tell, and are mainly sheeping the easiest reads; I don't see much in the way of solving from them. Contrast me, who proactively pushed the private seer claims to see if they overlap (though it seems BDS is getting the credit for that, even though I am the one who suggested it) and have been trying to actively lock the game down. Which one of us actually looks like the wolf here?

You've taken credit for many ideas that 1) weren't yours or 2) were the generic 'good idea' move. Whenever I've asked you to prove that said ideas were yours, you ignored me.

[SpecsFlyer17]

As for the pairing options concerning me, I can see why you might believe them possible. By all means, vote me out next round if you think it's best. Just not this one lol

Why? Because you're a wolf and will have achieved your wincon by then?

[XiaoMigros]

Of course! That's why I would just say that, publically, for all to see and judge

[XiaoMigros]

It won't be LYLO anymore next round and I understand that I might be the best option to let go next, that's all. Unlike a wolf I don't need to survive to win

[SpecsFlyer17]

Of course! That's why I would just say that, publically, for all to see and judge

Guys we solved the game!

[XiaoMigros]

maybe the real werewolf was the friends we made along the way

[SpecsFlyer17]

It won't be LYLO anymore next round and I understand that I might be the best option to let go next, that's all. Unlike a wolf I don't need to survive to win

Makes sense.

I'm likely going to keep my vote on Oricorio today. TZP still has to vote. Assuming nothing else changes, Oricorio would be the lynch unless TZP votes for Xiao. Theoretically, it could come down to a KitB if that happens due to vote manipulation.

[mastersuperfan]

maybe the real werewolf was the friends we made along the way

Approximately 2 hours until phase end!

Apparent votecount:
- Oricorio: 3 (Xiao, BDS, Specs)
- Xiao: 1 (Oricorio)

Votecount remains unchanged.