TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[Oricorio]

I would also greatly appreciate an answer on this!

Read above post

[XiaoMigros]

TZP and Specs are both seer claims, assuming they're legit they can't be w/w

Why not? Seers can be wolves and vice versa

[XiaoMigros]

Read above post

Doesn't seem related but nevermind then, guess it wasn't established

[Oricorio]

Why not? Seers can be wolves and vice versa

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

[SpecsFlyer17]

It's super hedgy and I don't know about Specs's meta in this regard but this is not how I'd react to someone I had a guilty result on.

It's hedgy because it's a legit 50/50 whether you are the wolf or you got framed. I guess that's just my meta.

[XiaoMigros]

Ah okay I misunderstood what you were getting at

[XiaoMigros]

(Oricorio)

[SpecsFlyer17]

Since neither Specs nor TZP have revealed which seer they are yet, I kinda wanna try the private claiming plan in case it managed to get a hit.

My issue with this: the private message recipient will have the opportunity to mess with things. My suggestion is both TZP and I message 2 people their colors. That way we have two people verifying the results.

What do you all think?

[XiaoMigros]

I approve

[XiaoMigros]

Ideally not me since I'll go eat breakfast now

[SpecsFlyer17]

Here is what I suggest. Both TZP and I PM two players (BDS and Xiao?) and reveal our colors. They can independently report back. If the TZP and my colors mismatch, we know we have shenanigans. I left Oricorio out of this just because he has the positive hit on him, but if anyone objects to the choice of BDS and Xiao, let us know.

I don't necessarily think knowing the colors helps the humans or wolves a whole lot at this point, but I think this is a good plan to mostly confirm that TZP and I are legit seers.

I'll wait to hear back from TZP before I send anything.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Anyway, I think as long as Xiao can provide receipts BDS is likely town here. If BDS is wolf, you don't really tell someone else if someone claims wolf privately to you, and if Xiao/BDS are w/w there's no need to even entertain TZP's gambit.

I wanted to ask about this. Why does this make town!BDS most likely? Under normal rules where wolves are teammates, I'd say you're correct. But since the wolves are on completely separate teams, a wolf ratting out another wolf claim seems logical. wolf!BDS needs wolf!TZP to die in order to win.

[SpecsFlyer17]

In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs).

In my defense, the N2 seer activation was a later revision to the game rules. I agree that it's not the best look, but it was an oversight on my end.

[SpecsFlyer17]

For what it's worth, I'm giving TZP the benefit of the doubt for now. Fakeclaiming the second and final seer spot when only 2 players have died (of which one, N1P2, explicitly did not claim seer) is a gamble, especially when there's a way to test the validity of the claim (each seer is either ice or fire).

Of course, being a seer doesn't clear anyone of being wolf. I'm just referring to my thoughts on TZP being a real seer.

[SpecsFlyer17]

As far as Xiao being a lynch candidate:

It wouldn't surprise me if town!Xiao was burned or chilled N2, for similar reasons to why I think THC was killed N1; the strong consensus seemed to be that Xiao was town aligned, probably the most so of anyone. This would make him less likely to be lynched D2, and thus I could see him being targeted on N1 by wolves to build their vote manipulation power. It would not have shocked me if Xiao was killed N2 for that reason.

That does make me slightly suspicious that Xiao could be one of the wolves. But a simple explanation is that two other wolves wanted to prevent another THC situation from happening.

The positive hit on Oricorio is a much stronger argument for lynching atm for me.