TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[XiaoMigros]

Both BDS and Oricorio knew about my seer power during N2, so this was a bit of a coin flip between the two.

BDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?

[SpecsFlyer17]

I think it's worth discussing if I should claim color or not.

Claiming color gives the wolves more information, specifically the opposite color wolf. But what benefit does the opposite wolf have by forming an alliance with the seer? Or just keeping him alive?

What does everyone else think?

For now, I'm going to keep the color hidden until we discuss it more, or the other seer claims a result.

[XiaoMigros]

Maybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?

[XiaoMigros]

What does everyone else think?

I'm not sure what benefit town knowing your color would have, other than adding legitimacy to your claim. But if BDS and TZP can confirm it through other means, I think that would be better?

[BlackDragonSlayer]

BDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?

I can indeed confirm.

Right now I feel like we should get the other seer to claim, then maybe have them claim their color to someone privately. If they contradict, then, well, that brings their claims into question.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm the other seer and I got a green flip on my target last night

[Oricorio]

BDS (and Oricorio), can you confirm?

Yes.

I will also say that I fakeclaimed seer to TZP in an attempt to get them to claim to me. The idea was if we could get TZP and Specs to both individually claim Seer colors in private, we could see if their claims are contradictory. (TZP was figured out to likely be a Seer based on PoE). BDS can confirm this plan.

[Oricorio]

So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Yes.

I will also say that I fakeclaimed seer to TZP in an attempt to get them to claim to me. The idea was if we could get TZP and Specs to both individually claim Seer colors in private, we could see if their claims are contradictory. (TZP was figured out to likely be a Seer based on PoE). BDS can confirm this plan.

I can confirm.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Since neither Specs nor TZP have revealed which seer they are yet, I kinda wanna try the private claiming plan in case it managed to get a hit.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

So we know that the Seers are almost certaunly between TZP/Specs/THC (sadly, THC can't claim to us). If both TZP and Specs are real, that makes Xiao the optimal lynch for today. BDS is likely town based on reaction to TZP's gambit, and since we know that the seers can't both be wolves, then it's better the eliminate the wolf who can't give us information. That world would lead to a TZP/Specs thunderdome D3. Only problem is if THC is a seer, which would mean TZP/Specs w/w is still possible. Given that, I think both seers should still claim their colors privately to BDS.

From your perspective, I can see why Xiao makes sense, but at the same time, there is a color seering on you.

In addition, I'm still somewhat cautious of Specs' claims. As I pointed out to both TZP and Oricorio, Specs said some things N1 which seemed to indicate he wasn't a seer (most notably, missing the fact that seering only activates N2, which is something explicitly spell out in the seer role PMs). Though he could've deliberately been trying to shield himself and make the wolves think he wasn't a seer, it does feel more like he was either:
1. A wolf who wasn't a seer and only decided to claim seer privately (to test the waters and perhaps sus out the real seers) once heat started picking up on him.
2. A wolf seer who didn't intend to reveal himself but felt forced to once it seemed like he was a probable lynch candidate.

Also, the fact that Specs got a color hit also kiiiiiiinnda makes it look like he's trying to target Oricorio

[Oricorio]

Also of note is this PM Specs sent me:

I did, and you were a positive hit for my color.

Obviously that's not proof that you're a wolf, but it's a 50/50 now. I don't really have any reason to believe one way or the other at the moment.

It's super hedgy and I don't know about Specs's meta in this regard but this is not how I'd react to someone I had a guilty result on.

[XiaoMigros]

I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I stand by my thought that its Oricorio and Specs

That could definitely be the case.

[Oricorio]

That is interesting and leads me to believe Oricorio and Specs are the two wolves. Specs' response seems too cautious for a human, a bit of a nothing burger but without denying any future possibility. And Oricorio not responding is odd: They don't the seem the type to just not respond to an interaction like this, unless they have something to hide.

May be confbiased here a little but I think this push on me looks bad. Specs knows full well that I "responded" by outing the PM, so I don't see this as being a natural thought. But he needs to have a reason to suspect me, since as I established earlier if I am treated as town Xiao is just constrained by PoE. This is what we call a boxed in wolf.