TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[mastersuperfan]

Votecount:
- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (N1P2)

[Oricorio]

Before reading back on posts to actually formulate proper responses, i feel like this game has become something where, from my perspective, situations out of my control have led to a couple folks narrowing down a choice to pick me. When i havent necessarily contributed to those reasons at all—more like a process of elimination so to speak.

Either extremely coincidental or it has become quite favorable for the wolves to jump on in.

When the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.

Oh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?

Well, as time is running out, im glad BDS can get a sense for a little of this as i definitely am around to play and type when barely anyone else is, then am busy and tight on time when all the posts come flooding in..

If its any consolation as i dont doubt i will likely be lynched here, i appreciate the heavy analysis and breakdowns from TZP. Something i do not have the energy to do; especially, like i said before, if it involves "thinking of other games" because it has been months since i last played...
I wasnt strong on my vote for them, but will likely change due to other strong suspicions im picking up from BDS and TZP.

I will be frank, my inactivity and lack of lengthy explanation probably puts a target on my back more than i believe to see as fair, but at the same time everyone here plays the game way more often than i do. I get it..

As much as i would like to deep dive, time has gotten away from me and i will change my vote to Oricorio.
I thought them to be seer earlier primarily because their posts seemed like they were looking for info, thats it just a hunch. TZP has earned apass for now in my book because their thought process seems similar enough to mine on reads.

I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)

Are you a seer? You will most likely die if you don't claim, so there's no reason not to claim right now

[Nana1Popo2]

I'm not going to take the responsibility to fake claim, that would be worst for me down the line. So no, i am not

[Nana1Popo2]

Welcome back to TWG to me x)
Good luck y'all

[mastersuperfan]

TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

Wolves:
1. Arcanine, the Fire Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to burn permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint red for that night only. The painted target is seered red by the Fire Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Ice Wolf).
2. Ninetales, the Ice Wolf: Every night, can choose one living player to chill permanently and (from N2 on) one living player to paint blue for that night only. The painted target is seered blue by the Ice Seer that night (even if they are also painted by the Fire Wolf).

Players who are either burned or chilled, but not both, have their vote cut in half and are not told that they are burned or chilled. Players who are both burned and chilled die at the end of the night phase. Wolves are affected by these status conditions in the same way as humans.

The wolves are not told each other's identity and have separate wincons, but they may win together if they are the last two players alive.

Humans:
3. Human
4. Human
5. Human
6. Human
7. Human

Special powers:

• Sear, the Fire Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Fire Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Fire Seer (i.e. the Ice Wolf could also be the Fire Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers red players red (even if also painted blue by the Ice Wolf that night) and other players green.
• Icier, the Ice Seer: At the start of the game, a player other than the Ice Wolf is chosen at random to wield the power of the Ice Seer (i.e. the Fire Wolf could also be the Ice Seer). Each night starting from N2, can choose one living player to seer. Seers blue players blue (even if also painted red by the Fire Wolf that night) and other players green.

If both seering roles go to the same player, or if both seering roles go to wolves, then the seer role distribution is rerandomized.

Win conditions:

• The Fire Wolf wins when (a) the Ice Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Ice Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• The Ice Wolf wins when (a) the Fire Wolf is dead and they have at least 50% of the voting power (or inevitably will by the end of the night), or (b) the Fire Wolf is alive and all humans are dead.
• Humans win when both wolves are dead.

Host clarifications:
- N1 start.
- Instas are OFF. Lynching is required (no lynch is not an option). Phantoms are in play and will be awarded for any player who does not have a vote on a living player at day phase end.
- Real vote totals (e.g. including the halving from burn/chill) will be published following each lynch.
- Cardflips are off.
- First night phase will be 48 hours. Subsequent night phases will be 24 hours; day phases will be 48 hours.

---

Players:
1. Oricorio
2. BlackDragonSlayer
3. ThatHiddenCharacter
4. SpecsFlyer17
5. XiaoMigros
6. Nana1Popo2
7. TheZeldaPianist

---

Nana1Popo2 was lynched!

True votecount (including burn/chill):
- N1P2: 3 (Specs, TZP, BDS)
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)
- Oricorio: 1 (N1P2)

It is now Night 2. Night 2 ends in 24 hours, at 8:00:00 PM EDT on Saturday, June 29th.

Seerings and wolf paintings are now active!

[BlackDragonSlayer]

When the game concludes i will likely inquire as to how you all do it when it comes to earning your place as town, because i feel like i havent contributed much (no outside PMs, no one else claiming). Definitely different from other TWG ive played in the past.

I have so little to go off this game, because it feels like nothing has happened for me haha. Perhaps this is why i dont play too often, idk. x)

It can be difficult in small games or in games where there isn't a lot of information early. I think the biggest thing to keep in mind is knowing what buttons to push and how to stimulate discussion from very little (sometimes making a big reach is necessary to get people talking). Especially in NSMTWG, there can be ebbs and flows in phases where it feels like not much is happening, but then a lot happens all at once.

Oh also the meta-gaming side where you compare players to other games as a sort of citation, is very much out of my wheelhouse because i play this game for how it is; should i be reading that far into people?

Trying to predict players based on past actions can be a bit unreliable at times (people change, sometimes day to day depending on what's going on in their lives at the time), but sometimes it's necessary (especially in something like Mafia Universe's Mafia Championship where most players haven't played with the other players before). Overall it's just about playing with the same people over and over again and getting a sense for how they act in certain situation—or playing enough to where you have a general idea how the average person might act in certain situations.

Welcome back to TWG to me x)
Good luck y'all

Sorry for the lynch but I hope you return to future TWGs

[XiaoMigros]

Hello all, something unexpected came up yesterday and I will need some time today to deal with it as well. I will try my best to give something substantial by my evening time (Afternoon EDT)

[XiaoMigros]

Xiao:

yes hi

Is this because you thought that chilling/burning changed player color?

yes

As I alluded to in my BDS ISO breakdown, I'm not used to you making reads early on. Placing me at the top of you list early on in the day phase and then being the first player to cast a vote is somewhat out of step with the Xiao I've played with. That said, I remember you expressing frustration in multiple previous games that you felt like no matter what you did, it was suspicious--damned if you do, damned if you don't. And I know you've also taken a break from the past few games, maybe to come back fresh. So I want to ask you, in response to that, is this different playstyle I'm picking up on a conscious effort to change how you come across/read others/make pushes?

I wouldn't say it's conscious actually, but since I don't feel like I do well with endless (in my view unsubstantial) speculation) I wanted to get things moving and provide something concrete to talk about. It's also why I voted early for the person I was most suspicious of.

You disagree with Specs--to be clear, does that mean you're agreeing with me?

what were you asking me if I agree with?

Votes for me based on (I think) my guess that the wolves might have been trying to disguise the halved votes by placing them on unexpected players. I'm confused why though--you say here "I don't think it makes sense for the wolves to target the less active towns", but that's exactly what happened. I didn't say that that's probably what would happen, future tense--I said, given that this *already* happened, this is what suggests itself to me as a plausible reason why it might have happened.

I disagreed with the reasoning why, not the action itself. I don't see why wolves would intentionally try to kill one of the least active players just far.

[XiaoMigros]

What's your take on why each wolf may have picked THC independently?

Now upon reflection I think both wolves thinking they could halve someones vote and keep them alive backfired on them, both voting for THC. So a kill without intent

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'm a little surprised N1P2 didn't claim seer.

wolf!N1P2 would've been out of options; claiming seer would have been the one escape besides hoping to convince people to change their votes last minute. And wolf!N1P2 is a one-man team, so he loses if he's lynched. He should've been desperate to escape the lynching.

Even human!N1P2 could've claimed seer in the name of self-preservation. This one isn't as certain, as it could open a can of worms later down the road if it's obvious it was a fakeclaim. But a human trying to avoid their own mislynch seems like a valid reason to fakeclaim.

wolf!N1P2 could have just been busy (he mentioned he had work during the time approaching phase change) and just resigned once he gained votes, but his lake of seer claim makes me wonder if we lynched the wrong guy. And to be fair, it was still a KitB with less than an hour to play, so it's not like it made sense to just resign early and not fight.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

I'm here now everyone. Sorry, I've been helping a friend move out since yesterday and have been running around like crazy. Looks like I got very lucky that that lynch didn't go to a KitB and that N1P2 was apparently conscientious enough to not fake claim seer to stay alive. Almost certainly that means he was a human, unfortunately.

I think everyone's behavior after I dipped out yesterday has changed my reads somewhat but I'm going to sit on my thoughts until near the end of the night phase.

[mastersuperfan]

5 hours left in Night 2!

[Oricorio]

Received an interesting message from TZP:

Hey Oricorio, I'm the other wolf. By process of elimination I had it narrowed down to you and N1P2 at the end of D1, and given that N1P2 went down more or less without a fight I'm near-certain it's you. (If I'm wrong I just lost the game, but since I can't make kills at night if my partner's dead I feel like I need to start coordinating now if I want to win) I know it's unlikely that you trust me, maybe I'm a human trying to rustle up info, but I'm willing to pick my wolfing target based on what you tell me to pick to prove myself to you tonight. If you pick the same player I do, that person will be dead in the morning. What do you say?

Sorry, but I'm not the other wolf. Turns out my plan paid off after all.

Also my great grandmother has left the hospital, so I should be fine on that front.

[Oricorio]

Well, could be a gambit I guess. Anyone receive a similar message?

[Oricorio]

Also, agree with Specs's point that N1P1 is most likely town based on how they handled the claim. Unfortunately, I couldn't do anything to save them at that point