TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Don't have time to respond mroe thoughtfully yet to game stuff yet, but Oricorio, very sorry to hear about your great-grandmother's seizure and I hope she bounces back quickly

[SpecsFlyer17]

I'm not sure if it's explicitly been said, but it's ideal for the wolves to get someone lynched that hasn't been burned or chilled. Lynching someone with a full vote is more beneficial to a wolf than .5 votes. From that, I think it's reasonable to assume that the wolves went after THC with hopes that he would not be lynched D1.

Looking back on previous games,
Revival: Hosted
Numbers: Wolfed
Assassin: Wolfed
Lantern: Lynched (albeit via Lylo wolf rush)
TTT: Wolfed
Luigi: Wolfed
Grinch: Survived
True Love: Survived
RPS: Vigi'd

THC has only been lynched once since the revival, and that was via a lylo wolf rush with 3 wolves still in the game.

Is that relevant? Perhaps at least one of the wolves noticed this trend and went with someone less likely to be lynched. If successful, this would have given that wolf someone with .5 votes going into N2.

Now, who would've noticed that? BDS clearly did some research (posted after the N1 concluded), but he took it the opposite direction: what games has THC been wolfed and by whom? Oricorio also alluded to previous game behavior, but talking about THCs alliances. I suppose wolf!BDS fits this theory the best, but anyone could've looked up the game history. BDS, TZP, Xiao, and myself (minus one game) have played since the revival, so it would've been freshest in our minds.

A wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.

[SpecsFlyer17]

Also Oricorio, wishing your great-grandmother, family, and you best! Hope she can make a full recovery!

[mastersuperfan]

A little less than 7 hours left in D1!

A reminder that phantoms are ON, so make sure you place your votes!

Votecount:
- TZP: 1 (Xiao)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)

Votecount remains unchanged.

[Nana1Popo2]

You flatter me to think that I would take the extra time to do all that research prior to this game to come to some sort of conclusion like that haha.
Alas, i am not that well coordinated and am just trying to figure this out like the rest of you, only from a perspective of much inactivity between games.
If anything, I find it rather refreshing!
(But then i eventually get a target on my back because of it)

I will have to stick with my gut here and place a vote for TZP.

Aside from Ori, it's the only suspicion I have, including the play style dives into performance. I don't think at this moment any other person is striking much more of a flag, but anything can happen in 6 hours I suppose. Specs, your analysis is good, but idk what else I can say other than what I already have. Perhaps BDS is sliding too comfortably under everyone's radars?

I will do my best to check in before day change on my break at work. If anything further develops I will consider changing based on my previous analysis.

[mastersuperfan]

Votecount:
- TZP: 2 (Xiao, N1P2)
- N1P2: 1 (Specs)
- Specs: 1 (Oricorio)

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Specs:

Spoiler

So the wolves can't kill each other, but they can have their vote cut in half.

I agree that the value of a seer result is not as strong in this game, especially as the game progresses with more and more players being burned/chilled as the game progresses. Add that to the temporary paintings on N2 onward, and there's a good possibility that most of the field will be colored something by N2. The probability of lynching a human as a result of a positive seering goes up as the game progresses.

Even D1, a positive seer result is only a 50/50 of being the wolf, as both the wolf and the N1 permanent chill/burn will be colored.

If a seer receives a positive result tonight, revealing it and lynching that player yields the best probability of lynching a wolf via seering result all game, but it will put a target on their backs for being burned/chilled later.

Misunderstands the rules.

Since the painting each night (starting N2) is temporary, any positive seer result is a 50/50 wolf. It also proves the respective wolf is still alive, as the wolf would have had to been alive that night to paint someone.

Is it worth seer claiming and lynching the result based on a 50/50? Probably depends on the circumstances, but having someone with a 50% chance of being a wolf does seem powerful.

Understands the rules. Good observation about even a false positive meaning that the wolf who did it is still out there.

My issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
 
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.

Here Specs is the first player to respond to my suggestion that the seers claim defensively. I understand the fear that it leaves the door open to undetected counterclaims, but Specs didn't really respond to the main benefit of this plan, which is that wolves might choose to leave a seer looking for their opponent wolf alive. Given that wolves can be seers, and since any seer result can be waved away as a result of painting, I don't really see fake counterclaims being a huge problem?

Given that there was no public message, I find it unlikely that the wolves cooperated via shot in the dark PMs.

For what it's worth, I received no PMs from THC, so it's not like he claimed to everyone. He may have claimed to a select number of people, but that's an odd play. Back in the Grinch game, he made a PM play claiming something different to everyone alive. However, I got nothing from him N1.

Specs is the first player to say there's no shot THC was tag-teamed

Maybe I should clear my stance up a bit.

Right now I'm not in favor of seers claiming a positive result without a color, mainly because it's a safe play against any legitimate counterclaim. If it's a fakeclaim, the real seers will likely assume it's just the other seer claiming.

I'm more open to the idea of seers claiming a positive result WITH a color, for two reasons. 1, if it's a fakeclaim and the real seer is alive, it will likely draw a counterclaim. 2, it reduces things to a 50/50, which isn't the best odds but it's better than nothing.

Xiao, where did I say that I wasn't in favor of seers claiming colors?

However, the catch with this is that a wolf may use it to bait a real seer into identifying themself. Wolf fakeclaims their respective seer, the real seer claims, and now the seer gets burned/chilled.

Maybe I'm misreading you here, but isn't this second quote making my point for me? A specifically aligned seer claim could be a seer saying they found a wolf...or it could be a wolf luring a seer out? I don't really see why you're still disagreeing with me on this if you feel this way.

At first glance Oricorio's math about mislyches checks out to me. Either way, we don't have a whole lot of wiggle room.

Today's lynch doesn't really have any possible curveballs since the seers don't work until N2, but we do know a few basic facts. Everyone has a full vote, and 2/6 of the remaining players are wolves.

The only additional "data" we could gather is if the seers claimed. Obviously this runs the risk of counterclaims and fakeclaims, but in a perfect world, removing them from the pool of votes gives a 2/4 chance of getting a wolf.

When I first saw this post I just responded to it by correcting Specs' math, but as I've thought more about it it seems a little suspect to me. We'd already discussed the fact that wolves can be seers multiple times at this point in the game. I don't know if I buy that Specs was still unaware of that here—this post reads more like an attempt to lay down a baseline assumption that wolves can't be seers. It could totally be a mistake as a human, but if Specs is a wolf I'd think it's probable he rolled a Seer role and is playing dumb about it.

Xiao's TZP vote makes sense with his suspicion list posted early D1. He was the first to really throw any suspicion anywhere.

After that, Oricorio did say we should look at TZP and myself more closely because of past games involving TZPs alliances. That feels like a bit of a stretch, considering everyone had access to the postgame to know about it.

BDS also said due to PoE, there's a good chance there's a wolf between TZP and myself. Sure, but it's the same probability as anyone else.

It's not quite enough to accuse Oricorio and BDS of bandwagoning though.

I agree with Specs' take here, that the reads on him and me as suspect because we've killed THC before don't really hold water, and I agree also that BDS and Oricorio aren't trying to hamhandedly lead a mislynch on that argument's basis.

Ngl, that chart made it more confusing to me.

Basically, the fire seer can be anyone but the fire wolf, and the ice seer can be anyone but the ice wolf. The caveat being the same player cannot be both seers. That's it, right?

More confusion about how seer roles are distributed?

Since I started playing NSM TWG, there has been a trend of mislynches based on false suspicions. I think it's gotten better recently though. However, given there were no powers N1, we don't really have any factual evidence to act upon today.

Xiao: I still disagree with your take on me thinking that a seer should claim with color after a hit is a bad idea, mainly because by D2, the game may already be approaching the end. Agree to disagree, I guess. Your vote on TZP falls in line with your early suspicion list, and you did call out BDS and Oricorio for conveniently also being suspicious of the same people.

TZP: People are getting onto you for your opinions about the double THC wolfing. I don't find your take on it particularly wolfy, just more so an alternate explanation of what happened. I'm not sure how your take would even be something a wolf would say/push. I don't love playing the meta game, but you do seem slightly more active than you usual are.

Oricorio: I really don't love the accusation of TZP and myself based on previous THC alliances. Feels like a weak grasp at straws. That being said, your early posts, while fairly mechanical in nature, do seem town-oriented.

BDS: Honestly not a lot of reads here from me. Curious why Oricorio moved up on his suspicion list.

N1P2: Your most recent post about taking a backseat is either genuine or a really sly attempt to play the emotional card to reduce suspicion. I wouldn't put it past a clever wolf to say something like that to appear innocent and deter anyone from voting for them. Just speculation.

N1P2 for now. Going to reread the discussion about THCs wolfing in the morning.

Suspicion list that hedges on absolutely everyone

I'm not sure if it's explicitly been said, but it's ideal for the wolves to get someone lynched that hasn't been burned or chilled. Lynching someone with a full vote is more beneficial to a wolf than .5 votes. From that, I think it's reasonable to assume that the wolves went after THC with hopes that he would not be lynched D1.

Looking back on previous games,
Revival: Hosted
Numbers: Wolfed
Assassin: Wolfed
Lantern: Lynched (albeit via Lylo wolf rush)
TTT: Wolfed
Luigi: Wolfed
Grinch: Survived
True Love: Survived
RPS: Vigi'd

THC has only been lynched once since the revival, and that was via a lylo wolf rush with 3 wolves still in the game.

Is that relevant? Perhaps at least one of the wolves noticed this trend and went with someone less likely to be lynched. If successful, this would have given that wolf someone with .5 votes going into N2.

Now, who would've noticed that? BDS clearly did some research (posted after the N1 concluded), but he took it the opposite direction: what games has THC been wolfed and by whom? Oricorio also alluded to previous game behavior, but talking about THCs alliances. I suppose wolf!BDS fits this theory the best, but anyone could've looked up the game history. BDS, TZP, Xiao, and myself (minus one game) have played since the revival, so it would've been freshest in our minds.

A wolf may also have taken a simpler approach going for the same result: wolf someone somewhat inactive, or at least not making splashes that could be dissected. THC actually had some solid posts N1. On the other hand, N1P2 only had an off-topic fun opening post N1. N1P2 would have been the easy target for this theory, but he was spared. Therefore, I think wolf!N1P2 fits this theory the best- wolfing the most inactive player in hopes that they won't be lynched D1.

I like this thinking more than the last couple of posts. When I was thinking about why THC would have been wolfed N1, I initially thought "yeah they probably just went for an inactive, so either THC or N1P2 could have been hit and it just happened that it was THC." But that's not quite right, because not only could N1P2 be one of the wolves that hit him, he was much less dialed into strategizing than THC was. Regarding the wolf-to-avoid-lynch-candidates strategy, that hadn't occurred to me either, and it's a thoughtful, out-of-the-box interpretation that to me is the most human thing Specs has posted thus far.

[close]

[TheZeldaPianist275]

Xiao:

Spoiler

Also, red or blue seerings are more likely than not to still be humans

Is this because you thought that chilling/burning changed player color?

But it's not advantageous for the seer. Maybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?

Helpful suggestion to avoid infoleaks

I feel like that could still make the seers an unwanted target, is it better for the wolves to just target anyone who outs themselselves?

All of these early game Xiaoposts read to me like a human trying to be thoughtfully helpful.

time to make a list! please bare in mind its 2 am

TZP
They have seemed noticeably more focused on revealing some seer informations than other players. Also their insights have only been marginally helpful and not as meaningful as I've come to expect from town!TZP

Specs
Arguing for seers claiming particular colors is not smart, especially given someone was just eliminated

Oricorio
Usual playstyle for now, but I'm hoping for more in-depth analyses to understand what's going on

BDS
Neutral, posts have mostly been on a meta level for now

N1P2
Please say more!!

As I alluded to in my BDS ISO breakdown, I'm not used to you making reads early on. Placing me at the top of you list early on in the day phase and then being the first player to cast a vote is somewhat out of step with the Xiao I've played with. That said, I remember you expressing frustration in multiple previous games that you felt like no matter what you did, it was suspicious--damned if you do, damned if you don't. And I know you've also taken a break from the past few games, maybe to come back fresh. So I want to ask you, in response to that, is this different playstyle I'm picking up on a conscious effort to change how you come across/read others/make pushes?

I agree it's a strange target. But the wolves already cooperating seems statistically unlikely (how did they find each other). Do you think THC managed to mess with them individually, or do you think they know each others identities? Or both?

Joins the consensus that however unlikely it is that both wolves picked THC independently, it's more unlikely that they found and decided to trust each other in the first phase.

You didn't say that, which is what I called 'not smart'
Claiming a color is putting a target on your back.

You disagree with Specs--to be clear, does that mean you're agreeing with me?

Also its funny specs and tzp are on top of my list... is that why BDS and Oricorio are going after them

Redirection from top two suspicions to two other players. Willingness to avoid tunneling feels like human behavior, unconcerned with making a completely airtight impression.

I disagree with that analysis, I don't think it makes sense for wolves to target the less active towns under the current circumstances. I vote TZP

Votes for me based on (I think) my guess that the wolves might have been trying to disguise the halved votes by placing them on unexpected players. I'm confused why though--you say here "I don't think it makes sense for the wolves to target the less active towns", but that's exactly what happened. I didn't say that that's probably what would happen, future tense--I said, given that this *already* happened, this is what suggests itself to me as a plausible reason why it might have happened.

This seems to make sense, thanks for writing

Agrees with my BDS human read without elaboration

[close]

[SpecsFlyer17]

Maybe I'm misreading you here, but isn't this second quote making my point for me? A specifically aligned seer claim could be a seer saying they found a wolf...or it could be a wolf luring a seer out? I don't really see why you're still disagreeing with me on this if you feel this way.

Those two posts wree me going through the pros and cons of a seer specifying color on a claim/hit. Yes, the second quote does explain a drawback to the pro-color claim. Tbh, I'm going to need to think some more about the benefits and drawbacks of a seer claiming with/without color.

I don't know if I buy that Specs was still unaware of that here—this post reads more like an attempt to lay down a baseline assumption that wolves can't be seers. It could totally be a mistake as a human, but if Specs is a wolf I'd think it's probable he rolled a Seer role and is playing dumb about it.

Yeah, just a game rule misunderstanding. At the time I wrote that, I blanked on the fact that wolves can be seers too.

More confusion about how seer roles are distributed?

I'm giving up on trying to figure out MSF's chart lol. I'm confident I understand the seer distribution now though.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

N1P2:

Spoiler

Hi! I am here and quickly reading through everything.
This is unlike me but I did forget multiple times I was playing this game (my fault, is not an excuse; especially a "i havent been paying attention so dont count me as sus" excuse)..

It is late where I am, and I work open shift until about 4 hrs before the phase change (ugh). I will do my absolute best to reply throughout the day tomorrow!!

Initial thoughts are yes, be wary of  seering claims this early and i believe it highly unlikely, if anything very lucky, that the wolves both found each other AND got THC. Lucky, because like mentioned already, everyone at full vote is an absolute certainty at this point.

N1P2 agrees here with the general strategy discussion without adding to it

I agree, msf.

Thoughts so far are it's tough to read anyone when all we do is speculate haha.
I don't mind the no non-lynch days because it certainly provides movement through the game, but it really is tough to point a finger even if justto point one.

Is your vote for the sake of starting a vote count because none of us have voted?
To be frank, I did think TZP's analysis was oddly creatively-specific, but perhaps that's because they have more experience in TWG than I do... Does that warrant a vote already? Not that experience matters all the time, nor do I like to think outside the game (it gets confusing to me), but seeing that BDS posted about previous THC game history, idk.

@Nana1Popo2 if you return before phase end please see my addressing this in my post above on Xiao. If I'm reading you right here, you are suspicious of me because of what you perceive as an excessively tinfoily explanation of wolf strategy. The reason I floated this idea is because I was surprised, like everyone else, not only that a doubled wolfing happened on N1 but that it happened on a player who had barely made it in time for the phase to end. My reasoning on this would indeed be a crackpot theory if I had made it before the wolfing had happened--but I didn't. I'm just trying to make sense of an unexpected development.

I'll be so so honest, i tend to take a passenger seat role in these games! I think i've even mentioned that before.
The amount of deep dive y'all do is way beyond my mental capacity, but i do love joining along for the ride.

That being said, i will speak up if i have the right reason to do so! Maybe my flaw is I wait too long, because i want what i have to say to have substance and not just word vomit.

I'll go down the list of peeps and give my read on them, based solely on "listening" to everyone talk. I also have neither sent nor received any PM's.

Oricorio: I'm in agreement of the phrasing used by TZP, "I think Oricorio is maybe the most aggressive player in this lobby[...]". Perhaps trying to just snuff out information because they have seering power?
BDS: What I personally define as typical responsive behavior from what I remember from other games.
Specs: No true read, but it seems to have a bigger impact on other players here.

It appears that, for either some people here or in this game in general, getting a "town" read typically is given when giving heavy analysis and explanation into the social aspect of the game. As mentioned before, I lack this typically and perhaps that has always been my greatest weakness.
That being said, I will continue with the only shred of "something doesnt feel right" in my analysis.
TZP: It's only one paragraph, but it still gives me a weird feeling of how off-brand the decision may be from the wolves' perspective. It's only a hunch and I dont have much else. I appreciate the dive on Ori as it has assisted in forming my own opinion on them.
Xiao: Human lean; appreciate the effort in contributing to the game in a timely manner with the only vote so far, and the respect to say that it was primarily timing that it happened not necessarily the target.

What stands out to me about this more than anything else is the sentence at the start. I've only played one game with Ice Climbers, but that game he decidedly did NOT take a passenger seat role--he worked overtime for alliances and information and Davy gave him the "rising star" award in the postgame. So I have no idea what you're talking about here.

As far as the suspicion list itself goes, it's pretty hedgy on everyone except me. See what I said above. If you have a different explanation than I do for why the wolves would have wombo comboed THC, I would love to hear it.

You flatter me to think that I would take the extra time to do all that research prior to this game to come to some sort of conclusion like that haha.
Alas, i am not that well coordinated and am just trying to figure this out like the rest of you, only from a perspective of much inactivity between games.
If anything, I find it rather refreshing!
(But then i eventually get a target on my back because of it)

I will have to stick with my gut here and place a vote for TZP.

Aside from Ori, it's the only suspicion I have, including the play style dives into performance. I don't think at this moment any other person is striking much more of a flag, but anything can happen in 6 hours I suppose. Specs, your analysis is good, but idk what else I can say other than what I already have. Perhaps BDS is sliding too comfortably under everyone's radars?

I will do my best to check in before day change on my break at work. If anything further develops I will consider changing based on my previous analysis.

Please do check in and argue with me!

[close]

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Xiao:

After reading this over, I'm not sure if it's enough to change my read on Xiao.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Also, after a PM convo with someone (I'll leave it up to them if they wanna say anything more) I'm going to place a vote on Oricorio for the time being, though I am willing to change it later. Of all the players in the game, I'd say Oricorio is the one I feel most uncertain on. It's not really a hard suspicion on Oricorio but more a process of elimination on who I don't want to lynch today.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

[quote author=TheZeldaPianist275 link=msg=442905 date=1719606684
What stands out to me about this more than anything else is the sentence at the start. I've only played one game with Ice Climbers, but that game he decidedly did NOT take a passenger seat role--he worked overtime for alliances and information and Davy gave him the "rising star" award in the postgame. So I have no idea what you're talking about here.
[/quote]
I do want to hear more from @Nana1Popo2 regarding this, though.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

well that quote got bungled

[BlackDragonSlayer]

I keep trying to put together a suspicion list, but aside from Xiao and TZP I feel like I keep flopping back and forth on the remaining three players, so it's hard for me to rank them in a definitive order (in a game this small and with two wolves it's definitely hard to get a grip on things when looking outside of a specific context). In lieu of that, over the course of the next few hours I will attempt an "abridged-TZP" approach so I can hopefully get more of my thoughts together, both for myself and for others.