TWG CXXIII: A Dance of Fire and Ice

[Oricorio]

As I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems.

Worst-case scenario for town going into D1 is the wolves converge on one player, leaving us at 4-1-1. If town mislynches, there aren't many scenarios where town can still win unless the wolves crossfire. But I find that scenario somewhat unlikely, so let's assume that we will have three townies with a full vote, one or two with a half vote, and one of the wolves possibly having a half vote. In that case, as long as the wolves aren't coordinating behind the scenes a mislynch probably would be allowed. Still, again I would be a little careful about lynching someone based on seer results, it's a 50-50 at best and potentially even further stacked in wolves' favor as they can paint the person they think is most likely to be seer'd, something that I notably couldn't do in the Grinch game.

[XiaoMigros]

As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative.

But it's not advantageous for the seer. Maybe we can make a 'rule' to not agree on seer stuff in groups smaller than three?

[XiaoMigros]

Also it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...

[TheZeldaPianist275]

As I can tell, there are two main strategies the wolves can use: a wolf-wolf alliance and a wolf-Seer "alliance". The first is obvious, the wolves find each other via PM and coordinate their actions, leaving town little recourse but to act completely as a unit with even one defection potentially making the game unwinnable. Of course, that strategy would require a lot of risk for the wolves to initiate, so it's more likely we'll see the second strategy. As the seers are only a threat to one wolf each, it's advantageous for a wolf to find the seer that isn't a threat to them and use their results to control the narrative. In order to counter such a strategy, the two Seers need to be 100% coordinated. Of course, a wolf can be the seer, which carries its own problems

Yeah I think this is a good insight. There's definitely a risk of a wolf saying to another player "hey I'm getting seer vibes from you, I'm a seer too, let's coordinate a human alliance", made even more plausible since the door is open for a wolf to be a seer as well. Another way of saying that is the incentives for wolf/wolf or wolf/seer collaboration are higher than seer/seer collaboration—so be wary of people trying to cozy up to you privately.

What do you guys think of my suggestion that seers publicly claim positive hits but not which color?

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Also it would be nice to hear from THC at some point...

Sorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.

I did want to clarify with @mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

The way I understood it is that Sear will only receive red or green seerings, and Icier will only receive blue or green seerings. So the Fire Seer is calibrated to look for the Fire Wolf but is blind to the Ice Wolf (and vice versa). to offset that, the each wolf gets a painting power that only works on the specific seer looking for that wolf. MSF can correct me if I'm misunderstanding but I think the game was designed with this dynamic in mind

[mastersuperfan]

Sorry, I spent all day yesterday cleaning out my room, this is the first chance I've even had to get on the forums since the game started.

I did want to clarify with @mastersuperfan, does the Sear see the Ice Wolf as green (and vice-versa with the Icier and Fire Wolf)? The wording has me a little confused. I have some thoughts on the seer situation, but it really depends on this.

Yes, unless the Ice Wolf is also painted red by the Fire Wolf that same night.

[mastersuperfan]

The way I understood it is that Sear will only receive red or green seerings, and Icier will only receive blue or green seerings. So the Fire Seer is calibrated to look for the Fire Wolf but is blind to the Ice Wolf (and vice versa). to offset that, the each wolf gets a painting power that only works on the specific seer looking for that wolf. MSF can correct me if I'm misunderstanding but I think the game was designed with this dynamic in mind

This is correct.

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Hm... Sounds like the seer results wouldn't be super useful then. I can only think of one way that would have a highly increased chance, though not 100%, of finding a wolf, and it would still require a lot of luck. I won't say it here just because bringing attention to it could give the wolves the easy answer to combatting it. I think the fact that it takes both wolves to kill someone is definitely going to our benefit here, as it will help elongate the game so we can get more info.

[TheZeldaPianist275]

What do you mean that seer results won't be useful, THC? Even if there's never a way to 100% verify that a result isn't a false positive, it's still an investigative power in a small game, I think it will be very helpful

[ThatHiddenCharacter]

Admittedly, I was neglecting the fact that anyone seer'd green is a confirmed human. With that in mind, the seers are indeed very useful. I was only thinking of it from the angle of a Blue or Red seering as being just as likely to be a wolf or human without other context.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

Admittedly, I was neglecting the fact that anyone seer'd green is a confirmed human. With that in mind, the seers are indeed very useful. I was only thinking of it from the angle of a Blue or Red seering as being just as likely to be a wolf or human without other context.

If I'm understanding things correctly, you'd have to be double seered green to be confirmed human. Considering that, I think there's still a potential reason to reveal colors.

[BlackDragonSlayer]

By "double seered," I mean both seers would have to seer you at the same time. I think it's a viable strategy, albeit risky, to try and get the seers to coordinate seerings—it just depends on whether or not the wolves themselves are able to coordinate rather than fully playing against each other, or whether we even wanna take that risk in the first place or just leave the seers to their own devices.

[SpecsFlyer17]

What do you guys think of my suggestion that seers publicly claim positive hits but not which color?

My issue what that is it makes the seer role way easier to fake. If a wolf (or even a human) fakeclaims a vanilla seer, both seers can chalk it up to it being the other seer.
 
If someone fakeclaims a color seer, the real seer will know that it's fake.

[XiaoMigros]

I feel like that could still make the seers an unwanted target, is it better for the wolves to just target anyone who outs themselselves?